Don’t worry, just a little bump - $70 is just around the corner. Short traders just keep making those margin calls, mortgage the house if you have to. Fortunes await you! PO is for pansies and doomers. At $70 short some more ..... it is going back to $22 .... the world is awash with oil ........ reality has nothing to do with it, its all in those charts!!!!!!!!!!
The US expects this invasion to take less than 100 days. To avoid the expected oil crisis due to the shut-off of Iranian oil the American administration is planning to use its strategic petroleum reserve that has a supply of oil equals to about 175 days worth of Iranian production. Europe will also use its own strategic oil reserve. These reserves would be replenished with fresh oil after controlling Khuzestan. This war would give US total control of the largest three oil resources of the world; Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Iran. The Dollar’s global hegemony would be restored, and participating European countries would have some share of the cake.
My question is, the world has been expecting US to attack Iran for oil since early 2005. It is now APRIL 2006, so is Bush going to attack or not? If so, just how long is he going to let it drag?
The same for peak oil, the prediction was 2000, then 2004, then 2005, and it hasn't happened yet.
If anyone can answer whether or not we will even have an Iran war and if so what time it will occur would be great
Posted: Wed Apr 05, 2006 3:16 pm Post subject: Re: When will the US attack Iran? When Peak Oil?
bochen787 wrote:
My question is, the world has been expecting US to attack Iran for oil since early 2005. It is now APRIL 2006, so is Bush going to attack or not? If so, just how long is he going to let it drag?
I'm not entirely certain the manpower is available for an invasion at the moment. US forces seem to be stretched pretty thin as-is.
I also don't think many people realize just how strong a position Iran holds right now. Nations might be able to tap their respective SPR's to temporarily make up for the loss of Iran's oil, but (and yes, I'm going to go down this road again) Iran's ability to shut down the Strait of Hormuz with a single truck-launched cruise missle threatens the stability of the ~17 million BPD that flows through the strait on tankers. That's got to have a massive cooling effect on any invasion plans.
bochen787 wrote:
The same for peak oil, the prediction was 2000, then 2004, then 2005, and it hasn't happened yet.
Correct me if I'm wrong here, but from the figures others have posted here, peak oil may have actually occured in either May or December 2005 at just under 85 million bpd. It will probably take a couple of years to be sure, but a lot of people seem to think we are already there. Basically, the entire question comes down to whether or not Ghawar has peaked, and of course, the Saudis won't say. _________________ The whole of human history is a refutation by experiment of the concept of "moral world order". - Friedrich Nietzsche
Posted: Wed Apr 05, 2006 3:56 pm Post subject: Re: When will the US attack Iran? When Peak Oil?
I don't think the US can attack anyone right now. I think this is all just bluff and bluster directed towards trying to gain a coup at the negotiating table.
The Iranians don't seem to be falling for it.
There sure are alot of articles being written everyday right now that are making the assumption that the US WILL attack though.
I should say that this opinion has been bolstered by my readings of F. William Engdahl and Mike Ruppert's stuff lately. But aside from that, it just doesn't make sense for the US to dig itself into an even deeper more unpopular conflict. If it were truly necessary, the 'Might Wurlitzer' would be zinging the public into new heights of fear frenzy. That doesn't seem to be happening with much authority. _________________ "May you live in interesting times"
Posted: Wed Apr 05, 2006 4:12 pm Post subject: Re: When will the US attack Iran? When Peak Oil?
Carlhole wrote:
But aside from that, it just doesn't make sense for the US to dig itself into an even deeper more unpopular conflict. If it were truly necessary, the 'Might Wurlitzer' would be zinging the public into new heights of fear frenzy. That doesn't seem to be happening with much authority.
Many observers and commentators seem to go back and forth about an impending attack. They attack - they don't. Now they do - now they don't.
There are several things most seem to agree upon though:
1) If there is an attack, it would be limited to airstrikes.
2) It would be a very bad idea to do so, because the consequences are largely unknown, potentially grave and uncontrollable.
3) The admin is nevertheless potentially mad enough to do it anyway.
I wondered about the Mighty Wurlitzer myself, but if you watch it together with the diplomacy, it could rather mean an extended timeframe than it not happening at all.
IMHO it all points to spring 2007 IF there is an attack, not the least because of the congressional elections.
But then it needs time to condition public opinion to bite on Iran, you can't just drum up Fox News today and tomorrow go to Iran.
It has to sink into general opinion that Iran is evil. Just like with Iraq when everybody sort of was thinking:"Well they are crooked and already did it once, and quite surely they have WMD no matter what they say or Hans Blix says".
So the low-level infowar against Iran is perfect in the long run over one year. You have a UN-resolution, some made up stories about Iranian supplies of IEDs in Iraq, some (even true) gruesome stories about Irans society and leadership - constantly dripping it into the brains.
And voila, in one years time you have a perfect "our patience has run out" speech for El Pretzeldente. And everyone, even us, will go sort of like: "Well, after all, they asked for it"... _________________ "Democracy means the opportunity to be everyone's slave."
Karl Kraus
Joined: Mar 31, 2006 Posts: 108 Location: Arlington TX
Posted: Wed Apr 05, 2006 5:06 pm Post subject: Re: When will the US attack Iran? When Peak Oil?
In many ways America is like Microsoft and China is like Google.
As much as I personally wish to see it fall, I seriously don't think America is going to decline as the sole world's superpower any time soon or if at all for that matter. And as much as I hate Microsoft, I don't think they will fail either.
The US probably views peak oil as an OPPURTUNITY to salvage there declining dollar. Once US takes control of Iraq + iran + suadi then there is truly no stopping them. Oil is gonna give USA a new lease on life.
Joined: Feb 17, 2006 Posts: 71 Location: Toronto, Canada
Posted: Wed Apr 05, 2006 5:46 pm Post subject: Re: When will the US attack Iran? When Peak Oil?
Definitely the US is good at the 'war' part, as in blowing stuff up, but not so good at occupying and keeping the oil flowing. As well, they'd have no thin excuse to hide behind, and that would be the final proof of their evil empire status to the rest of the world. It could trigger unrest, and unrest in Saudi Arabia for example, could be bad.
If the nuclear facilities are their real interest in Iran, the most practical thing would be just to blow up whatever nuclear facilities are causing concern.
Posted: Wed Apr 05, 2006 7:18 pm Post subject: Re: When will the US attack Iran? When Peak Oil?
If a strike is going to occur I would anticipate it to happen before June ( the start of hurricane season) or not until the new year.
There is a notion in my head that Bushco. may wait till deep into hurricane season and use that as a distraction for the American people. Then of course using the SPR would be to cope with the outcome of the hurricane damage, not whatever fuss Iran may be making cause you nuked them.
And yes, I believe BushCo. will use tactical nuclear weapons. They really don't have much else to throw that is effective and scary enough. _________________ Gravity is not a force, it is a boundary layer.
Everything is coincident.
Love: the state of suspended anticipation.
To get any appreciable distance from the Earth in
a sensible amount of time, you must lie.
Joined: Sep 05, 2004 Posts: 205 Location: Washington, DC
Posted: Wed Apr 05, 2006 9:00 pm Post subject: Re: When will the US attack Iran? When Peak Oil?
i don't think we're gonna see any attacks with elections this year. Plus, the propaganda machine is really just getting started... we've got another 6 months to a year of media madness to go through before anything significant happens.
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