How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Posted: Mon Jun 07, 2004 5:30 am Post subject: Question for matt
Hi matt,
I was wondering about the coming water shortages. What is happening in the Middle East and Africa. How long before they simply don't have enough water? I heard that you already did some research on this topic can you tell us something about it??
1. The world has the same amount of fresh water as it did 10,000 years ago. (or 20,000 etc. . ) But we have way too many people.
2. Many sources of fresh water have been polluted due to industrial processes.
3. Effects of global warming/desertification will further reduce the supply.
4. In industrial societies, much fresh water is treated or pumped using fossil fuel energy. (Think Los Angeles for a good example).
5. In Ca, they know believe that the last century was particularly "wet." Turns out the drought we've had for the last few years is more likely the rule, not the exception. (I live in Ca, so I'm particularly concerned.)
A google search for "water crisis" or "water wars" will turn up a lot of good stuff.
The world's supply of fresh water is running out. Already one person in five has no access to safe drinking water. (source: bbc)
Quote:
More than half of Europe's cities are exploiting groundwater at unsustainable rates. Chronic water shortages are already affecting 4.5m people in Catalonia, where authorities are pressing for the construction of a pipeline to divert water from the Rhone in France to Barcelona.
Quote:
Ninety-five percent of the United States' fresh water is underground. As farmers in the Texan High Plains pump groundwater faster than rain replenishes it, the water tables are dropping. North America's largest aquifer, the Ogallala, is being depleted at a rate of 12 billion cubic metres (bcm) a year. Total depletion to date amounts to some 325 bcm, a volume equal to the annual flow of 18 Colorado Rivers. The Ogallala stretches from Texas to South Dakota, and waters one fifth of US irrigated land. Many farmers in the High Plains are now turning away from irrigated agriculture, as they become aware of the hazards of overpumping, and realise water is not in endless supply.
Quote:
Mexico city is sinking because of the amount of water being pumped out from beneath its foundations. One of the largest and most populous cities in the world, it was once a lush land of lakes. But over the last 500 years the lakes have been drained and the surrounding forests chopped down. As the city grew in size, the water problem magnified. With no adequate drainage system, today rainwater mixes with sewage and is used for irrigation. The city is now at serious risk of running out of clean water. An estimated 40% of the city's water is lost through leaky pipes built at the turn of the century.
Quote:
Water is the most precious resource in the Middle East, more important even than oil. Competition for water from the River Jordan was a major cause of the 1967 war. As populations increase, water becomes more scarce, aggravating regional tensions. The Lebanese have long accused Israel of having designs on the waters of the River Litani, and Syria accuses it of being reluctant to withdraw from the banks of the Sea of Galilee, the source of up to 30% of Israel's water. Israelis in the West Bank use four times as much water as their Palestinian neighbours.
Quote:
A United Nations report predicts that access to water may be the single biggest cause of conflict and war in Africa in the next 25 years. Such wars are most likely to be in countries where rivers or lakes are shared by more than one country. There is already fierce national competition over water for irrigation and power generation - most notably in the Nile river basin. Cairo warned in 1991 that it was ready to use force to protect its access to waters of the Nile, which also runs through Ethiopia and Sudan. If the populations of these countries continue to rise, competition for the water could be fierce.
Quote:
Turkey has been accused by Syria and Iraq of depriving them of much-needed water, as it continues to build a series of dams along the Euphrates and Tigris. It is also embarking on an ambitious project to sell water from its Manavgat river across the Middle East.
Quote:
The most sacred Hindu river, the Ganges, is so depleted that the Sundarban wetlands and mangrove forests of Bangladesh are seriously threatened. It is also said to contain unacceptable levels of arsenic. As more trees are chopped down, and more buildings erected along its banks, the glaciers supplying the river have been melting, raising fears of shortages and drought downstream. The river has been the subject of a long-running dispute between India and Bangladesh, although recently progress has been made in resolving the conflict.
at last a quote from Meir Ben Meir, Former Israeli Water Commissioner
Quote:
I can promise that if there is not sufficient water in our region, if there is scarcity of water, if people remain thirsty for water, then we shall doubtless face war.
Quote:
"At the moment, I project the scarcity of water within 5 years," he says.
That statement of water scarity within 5 years was made in juni 2000 !
Wow looks to me that we're running out of water quicker then i thought!
Ok so we haven't got enough water, oil, arable land... and it also looks that it's going to happen all at once? Why is everything turning for the worst? It's not fair.
Joined: May 23, 2004 Posts: 199 Location: Charlottesville, Virginia
Posted: Mon Jun 07, 2004 12:44 pm Post subject:
Quote:
Ok so we haven't got enough water, oil, arable land... and it also looks that it's going to happen all at once? Why is everything turning for the worst? It's not fair.
You know what amazes me? Today in Virginia the sun is shining, birds are singing, gas prices are going down, SUVs are cruising the roads, the stores are packed with merchandise/food ready for consuming. If I try to mention at work about dark clouds on the horizon, they think I'm nuts. Even the guy who believes in the Face on Mars laughs at me. I'm really living in a surreal world. Either that or I really am nuts.
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 6371 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Mon Jun 07, 2004 1:36 pm Post subject:
And the ASPO guy laughs his head off about meeting this fall's demand.
Makes me wonder if we on this board are looking down the road or just looking for boogiemen. Sometime on the rare occasion when I drive in town, I look around at the behemoths on the road, mile after mile of strip malls, huge homes with zero land whose occupants drive 160 – 200 miles to work each day and feel a really strange foreboding.
I guess you make your assessment with the information you can get, carry out your plan and then hope for the best.
Oh well, got to get to work and build a Hummer ad. _________________ Make a plan and work it:
There's a difference between an informed opinion and determined ignorance/insistent denial.
I can sympathize with the overload though.
Say a normal american goes out to the mall for the day...
One person tells her that the climate is changing so fast an ice age is coming.
One person tells her the Russians are gonna nuke us this year.
Three people tell her The Revelations of the Bible are about to happen.
Another tells her that aliens have taken over the government.
Another tells her the world is facing massive die-off from critical resource shortages.
Another tells her the economy is about to crash
Another tells her that terrorists are going to explode bombs in 7 major US cities before the elections.
Another....
In response to this barrage of info from people she semitrusts she can:
1) laugh it off
2) watch the tv news and some magazines/newspapers for signs of any of these things being true.
3). research the topics on the web for a few weeks
I'd break the above categories down as 60% #1, 35% #2, 5% #3.
In my experiences with peak oil, Ive found people are more likely to take you seriously if they've seen your life significantly changed. When they see your ACTION, they are more likely to believe the seriousness of the issue. Otherwise you are just rehashing the Enquirer headlines.
Although my best friend from school said "Hey I listened to you about Y2K and you were WRONG! So take off eh"
I find it most fustrating that people laugh off the Peak Oil idea with the kind of throw away comment like "Y2K wasn't that bad and you guys said the world would end then".
As a programmer myself, I remember back in 1999 thinking "What's all the fuss about, it's only a minor flaw with older software, big deal!!" and the media somehow turned this into a poster child for the millenium blues.
The unsurprising lack of serious issues has now created a Cry Wolf situation. No matter how convincing the debate for Peak Oil, people will shrug it off - bored of TEOTWAWKI rumours.
Before Y2K I think people used the Cold War as a similar kind of defence mechanisim: "Everyone said the world would end in a nuclear strike and it never happenend so...".
On the one hand I'm pleased the media is taking more of an interest in POT, on the other hand it weakens the real debate because it gets compartmentalised as a new End Of World scenerio - just like you say, yet another doomsday scenerio for Mr and Mrs Average to forget about as soon as they start bitching about the high prices to fill up their pointlessly large SUV or (worse yet) what Julia Roberts might name her twins , or some other mindless rubish.
I'd actually dispute your ratios, I think it's more like:
90% couldn't give a flying f**k - unless it was in a gossip magazine.
8% are midly interested but too busy driving to the mall or painting their nails to think about it
1% are interested and are actively trying to understand what's really happening
1% are interested but are simply attracted to a new exciting End of World theory and help discourage serious thought about the issue
Therefore, there's really not much point trying to persuade most people of the seriousness of the issue.
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 6371 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Tue Jun 08, 2004 9:04 am Post subject:
I guess no matter how many “facts” you have in your head, or how convinced you are of the validity of PO, the herd instinct is very strong and it’s hard not to stick your head in the sand beside everyone else and just go along until events hit you over the head.
Y2K is a case in point. I’m no programmer but know just enough to understand what the bug might have done. But as I’ve said before I have always had a big “pantry”, stored water etc., so figured unless the lights went out forever we had what we needed and would do fine. On the last weekday before new years, I blithely went to the bank to deposit my check and was amazed at the lines of people taking out money. On the way home I stopped by the store to pick something up and there were big lines of people “stocking up”! This is the day before the thing that had been in the news for two years!
Anyway, I guess I’m just whining. The house goes on sale this weekend and we’ve been working our butts off! We have tickets to fly out around the 24th to scope out the new location for Mom & Pops Rollover Ranch.
As Jerry Jeff said:
"If I can just get off of this LA freeway
without getting’ killed or caught,
Down the road in a cloud of smoke
for some land that I ain’t bought, bought, bought…" _________________ Make a plan and work it:
Joined: Jun 02, 2004 Posts: 1078 Location: Bristol, UK
Posted: Tue Jun 08, 2004 9:58 am Post subject:
Pops wrote:
Makes me wonder if we on this board are looking down the road or just looking for boogiemen. Sometime on the rare occasion when I drive in town, I look around at the behemoths on the road, mile after mile of strip malls, huge homes with zero land whose occupants drive 160 – 200 miles to work each day and feel a really strange foreboding.
Foreboding is a very good word, I'm from the UK however I spent 2 weeks in the San Francisco area a couple of months back and it's exactly how I felt. Compared to my well-to-do part of the UK the consumption and inefficiencies were markedly higher. I certainly came away with the feeling that this isn't going to last forever.
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