For a minute there I thought I had to get off my couch, when all the while the fact is we don't have to do anything much but keep things afloat for just a few decades more! In fact, we'd best shut up about PO, because if our offspring finds out we knew about it all along, they'll turn and wring our necks come 2036!
Posted: Tue Apr 18, 2006 1:38 pm Post subject: Insane
Oil is not going to run out.
Simple fact is that we've done mostly land drilling, with some offshore drilling.
Even in this insane scenario we completely run out in twenty years, there is still the fact we can drill in the oceans.
Oh, right, you forgot about the oceans.
Further, you fail to take into account that in the next ten years we'll have viable alternative fuel sources.
Jesus Christ. I'm tired of this paranoid, end of the world crap. You folks are almost as bad as the nuclear war people.
---
"I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears and sweat." ~ Sir Winston Spencer Churchhill
Peak oil isn't about running out, it's about no growth of oil production... and later the contraction of output... peak is more about the end of growth...
True there will be alternatives, but nothing stores energy like oil, and does not need advanced tech to use it (compared to fusion)...
They say in 1 minute there is enough solar energy hitting the earth to power all man kinbd of 1 year...
I say nice, but what kind of infrustructure will you need to capture it...
Anyway, Peak Oil should be compared to a car tachometer, for the last 25 years we aproched the red line, then the last 10 years we are in the red line... point is, you can do it for a short time, after awhile you must back out of the red line or the system collpases...
Well, that's peak oil, we took too much out, over the edge for too long... now we need to back off or kill the fields...
There will be oil 150 years from now, but it will be a trickle... And I don't have faith the man will find a way before the panic... We will survive but as usual, a dollar too later and a dollar short...
Fusion, solar, wind, wave tech will all happen, but after some wars and some more stupid moves by more delusional presidents like Bush backed by the idiots who think oil will flow at a high rate forever...
sometimes its just a case of connecting all the dots.
You obviously cannot connect them?
senarios: 1. very little spare capacity
senarios: 2. Iran
senarios: 3. bad hurricane season gulf of mexico 2006
senarios: 4. Terror attack on oil facility in kuwait or saudia
senarios: 5. continued tensions in nigeria
senarios: 6. more attacks on Iraqi oil facilitys.
senarios: 7. massive tactical strike by Israeli air force on Iran (they will take us all with them, Israelis always told me whilst in Israel, they said: if we go, your coming with us!!!)
senarios:8. Run on US dollar (all hell breaks loose).
keep dreaming buddy, your Fark like the rest of us.
The US land based oil IS used up, for all practical purposes. Would we be drilling even offshore if oil was plentiful on-shore?
If oil isn't going to run out because there's oil under the ocean, then surely you recognize that there would come a day when such oil would be used up...same as the land and then offshore oil? And how much would that ocean oil cost, assuming we have the ability to engineer and deploy whatever infrastructure would be needed to tap into that deep water oil?
Or are you saying that the average middle aged person has nothing to worry about? What about our young children and those yet to be born from our young children?
These past two years, we have gone from where the energy bills for homeowners have grown from painful to unmanageable. Many people are spending money on their gasoline and energy bills that used to be used for 'discretionary' spending that supports entire sectors of our economy, such as tourism and home improvement for 'fashion's' sake.
Do you know what is really insane? Oil crosses over 70 and the DOW is up around 200. The human race never ceases to amaze me. I hope that I manage to hold on for a few more years... The show should be (what is the word I'm looking for - astounding and yet extremely sad at the same time)... Hmm?
A simple minded person should easily be able to figure this out. What separates the "American Consumer" from the rest of the world is the amount of hydrocarbons he consumes. Since the "American Consumer" is intent on having third world labor makes his things and loan him money to buy these things, the third world laborer will have US dollars to buy more things the "American Consumer" is intent on selling his lifestyle for. So, in effect, the "American Consumer" is digging his own grave, and we all get to sit back and watch it happen.
In short, in the near term anyway, the end is probably not at hand. What is at hand is the end of the "American Consumers" way of life. In the long term, unless they can figure out how to run tractor trailers and farm machinery on seawater, the world is in for some serious problems.
Keep a good eye on the Airlines and Automakers - That is the direction the "American Consumer" is heading...
It takes more than religious faith to believe that things are going to continue as they are.
Having displayed that faith perhaps the Apostle Paul's words are appropriate 'Eat drink and be merry for tomorrow we die'
Sorry, but those are not the words of Paul. He was 'quoting' a prevalent attitude at the time (maybe Epicureans). In other words, forget about anykind of afterlife - just do it (Nike)!
Do you know what is really insane? Oil crosses over 70 and the DOW is up around 200. The human race never ceases to amaze me. I hope that I manage to hold on for a few more years... The show should be (what is the word I'm looking for - astounding and yet extremely sad at the same time)... Hmm?
It is not insane if you control the government printing press, how much cash do you think the US government has stashed in offshore accounts to shore up the stock market ? We are in the midst of a Hitler like propoganda war which purpose is to create the biggest transfer of wealth in the history of the world. Bushy can't sell his war with Iran/Iraq if the "American Consumer" is losing all his money in the stock market can he ?
Simple fact is that we've done mostly land drilling, with some offshore drilling.
Even in this insane scenario we completely run out in twenty years, there is still the fact we can drill in the oceans.
Oh, right, you forgot about the oceans.
The last great oil region (the North Sea between England and Norway) was discovered in 1970. It is in decline, it has peaked.
common_sense wrote:
Further, you fail to take into account that in the next ten years we'll have viable alternative fuel sources.
We've had some viable alternatives (coal to liquid) for 50 years and newer ones like solar and wind for 10 years. But we did not bother to implement them. A Department of Energy study (google 'The Hirsch Report') shows that it would take 20 years to effectively mitigate for petroleum decline. We have not even started.
common_sense wrote:
Jesus Christ. I'm tired of this paranoid, end of the world crap. You folks are almost as bad as the nuclear war people.
Jesus Christ is not going to save you and I am sorry you are tired. Have you considered yoga? _________________ ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap
"Oil is not going to run out."
Therefore there must be an infinite supply of it. Sounds reasonable. Not.
"Oh, right, you forgot about the oceans."
Er, No. Theres no point in drilling into the ocean unless one is drilling into a sedimentary basin of the correct age. Do you understand anything about oil formation? Plate tectonics? Seafloor spreading? There isnt a lot of the ocean thats WORTH drilling into. Its not as if oilfields are evenly distributed in the surface of the earth like blueberries in a muffin, just waiting to be discovered. They arent. The distribution is highly uneven and restricted to highly specific circumstances. We know what those are.
"Further, you fail to take into account that in the next ten years we'll have viable alternative fuel sources."
We know what they are and approximately how quickly they can be ramped up. Are you suggesting that other energy sources that we dont yet know about will magically appear?
"Jesus Christ. I'm tired of this paranoid, end of the world crap. You folks are almost as bad as the nuclear war people."
Your reactions to other peoples opinions are your problem. Learn to relax a little... letting yourself get wound up like this is bad for your health. I suggest you consult a psychiatrist about what is obviously a problem for you.
---
"I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears and sweat." ~ Sir Winston Spencer Churchhill
" There is No Sanity Clause"
Chico Marx
Hmm.. I cant decide whether you are genuinely ignorant or a troll. I expect subsequent posts will tell. Welcome to the pleasuredome.
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ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap 
