Don’t worry, just a little bump - $70 is just around the corner. Short traders just keep making those margin calls, mortgage the house if you have to. Fortunes await you! PO is for pansies and doomers. At $70 short some more ..... it is going back to $22 .... the world is awash with oil ........ reality has nothing to do with it, its all in those charts!!!!!!!!!!
Posted: Wed Apr 19, 2006 9:54 am Post subject: Is Opec at Peak Production
Despite higher oil prices, Opec hasn't increased its production since 2004. If you go back and review the Opec Monthly Oil Report, you will see that Opec is pumping slightly less now than over the last 2 years, call it a plateau. Does this mean Opec is at peak production from a geological perspective?
Further, I do agree with Lynch and others that politics/economics have to be factored into the world peak oil equation. So, I would like to make the following assumption, that for political/economic reasons, Iraqi oil production will remain constant for the next five years. What effect, if any, would this have in calculating a world oil production peak?
Second, please make this assumption, that for political/economic reasons, Nigerian oil and Iraqi oil remain flat for the next five years. What effect, if any, would this have on calculating a world oil production peak?
Third, please make this assumption, that for political/economic reasons, Venezuelan oil production remains flat for the next five years. What effect , if any, would this have on calculating a world oil production peak?
Last, please make this assumption, that in 8 years natural gas production in Canada is 50% of what it its today, and that no other energy is available for the tar sands, such as nuclear power. What effect, if any, would this have on Canadian tar sands production and on calculating a world oil peak?
Joined: Aug 14, 2004 Posts: 2063 Location: San Diego, Ca.
Posted: Wed Apr 19, 2006 3:02 pm Post subject: Re: Is Opec at Peak Production
When this:
...starts to decline...we will know we are past peak. IMHO... _________________ "Peak oil isn't more than an interesting industry factoid and doesn't have anything to do with the hysterics speculated on ad nauseum around here!" ReserveGrowthRulz
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3377 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Wed Apr 19, 2006 4:22 pm Post subject: Re: Is Opec at Peak Production
jato wrote:
When this:
...starts to decline...we will know we are past peak. IMHO...
I think that is too simplistic because right now we are 800000 down per day between GOM and Nigeria shut ins.
If the producers all say they are pumping max while the price is sustained high and the production falls below 83 mbd then you might have a case. _________________ Oxygen: - An intensely habit-forming accumulative toxic substance. As little
as one breath is known to produce a life-long addiction to the gas, which addiction invariably ends in death.--Isaac Asimov
Posted: Wed Apr 19, 2006 4:26 pm Post subject: Re: Is Opec at Peak Production
We'll know about 5-10 years after the peak for sure. Month to month there are too many ups and downs to know anything. But some OPEC leaders have said they are running 100%.
Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 2081 Location: Arkansas
Posted: Wed Apr 19, 2006 9:59 pm Post subject: Re: Is Opec at Peak Production
ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:
seahorse wrote:
It didn't take 5-10 years to prove Hubbert was right amout peak oil in America. So, isn't it reasonable to assume, after two years, Opec has peaked?
As soon as someone finds, developes and produces the turbidites further down the Arabic Shield, then maybe we can talk about OPEC peak.
Right now, what has been reached is "infrastructure peak" if anything.
Excuse me, now I've got to go buy some chickens and goats for the backyard in case I'm wrong.
Reservegrowth, your post raises a lot of questions, and I ask these earnestly, why haven't the high oil prices motivated anyone to find, develope and produce these fields?
What are you defining as an "infrastructure peak"? Do you mean refineries, rigs, what do you see as the infrastructure peak?
Last, on a lighter note, since I do own chickens and goats, I might be able to help you make the best purchase decision. First, don't mix chickens and goats, they look cute together, but the chickens will give the goats worms which will seriously stunt the growth/health of your goats, maybe kill them. Second, when deciding what type of chicken to buy, I suggest a breed that is a combination layer/broiler. As for selecting and caring for goats, I can tell you its much more than I can give you here right now. I don't want to hijack my own thread with a long discourse on goats. There is a thread on goats in the Planning forum.
Posted: Thu Apr 20, 2006 10:27 am Post subject: Re: Is Opec at Peak Production
Here's a report that Opec production will drop over the next few months by a little over 300kbpd. Of course, its due to maintenance. There's always a logical explanation.
Posted: Fri Apr 21, 2006 7:38 pm Post subject: Re: Is Opec at Peak Production
Based on various analysis of new projects up to 2010, I forsee what we have seen since 2004 for the year 3-5 years, small ~1% increases in production on a yearly basis, indicative of the plateau. Any seriously supply disruption will cause a major price spike. Demand will repeated bump up against this production limit.
re: OPEC. This is the great unknown, of course. With Ghawar being the key. If it can sustain production for another 5+ years then the above scenario is very likely. If it hits the cliff (and it will be a cliff, based on teh heavy usage of secondary extraction methods and the water cut issue) earlier then peak will be earlier.
Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 2081 Location: Arkansas
Posted: Fri Apr 21, 2006 10:39 pm Post subject: Re: Is Opec at Peak Production
I agree that there are many projections out there about all the new oil coming online for Opec and Nonopec, but look at the facts, Opec hasn't increased production in 2 years. At some point in time, projections are meaningless if they don't match reality. So, how long is a reasonable time to wait and say the projections are simply incorrect, and Opec has peaked?
Everyone always assumed nonopec would peak first, maybe that too was a wrong assumption.
How odd that an Opec country will start rationing gas (petrol). Now, I know that the Iranians have little or no refining capacity, but their oil revenues go up as oil prices go up. Just a little odd.
Joined: Mar 02, 2006 Posts: 1194 Location: England
Posted: Sat Apr 22, 2006 12:43 pm Post subject: Re: Is Opec at Peak Production
Hmm - the statements about having reached their peak which came from Saudi & OPEC last week now seem to have been incorrect ... apparently there is a DELIBERATE ceiling being imposed ...
"We support the current OPEC production ceiling,"
- Iranian oil minister KazemVaziri Hamaneh said Thursday in reference to OPEC producing at full capacity.
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