I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
In terms of the consequences of the upcoming peak in crude oil production, I consider myself [see myself as]:
Optimistic
7%
[ 13 ]
Hopeful
14%
[ 25 ]
Unsure
19%
[ 33 ]
Doubtful of any effect
1%
[ 3 ]
Pessimistic
52%
[ 89 ]
Extinctionistic
2%
[ 5 ]
Total Votes : 168
Author
Message
EnviroEngr Site Admin
Joined: May 24, 2004 Posts: 1938 Location: Richland Center, Wisconsin
Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2004 9:29 pm Post subject: Dim outlook
It seems that by and large, the self-assessment is gloomy. Long ago at this very Forum, I was hoping to look into 'Apocalypse' lore. The impetus to do just that appears self-evident.
I will start digging: Why does almost every Generation (going quite a ways back) think it will be the one to see all die in a pile? _________________ --------------------------------
| Whose reality is this anyway!? |
--------------------------------
(-------< Temet Nosce >-------)
____________________________
Joined: May 24, 2004 Posts: 1938 Location: Richland Center, Wisconsin
Posted: Mon Oct 04, 2004 12:38 pm Post subject: Old Poll - New Poll
Several votes got lost in the August server rollover.
Check to see if you're registered in this poll. ...would like to compare the results with the new one Sencha put up "[ Poll ] What kind of Peak Oiler are you?" _________________ --------------------------------
| Whose reality is this anyway!? |
--------------------------------
(-------< Temet Nosce >-------)
____________________________
I am optimistic that we have the knowledge but lack only the wisdom to change to avoid chaos. We have one big factor working against any viable solution to peak-oil; asset enertia. So, I am pessimistic, but up for the challenge. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
I am totally unsure of what's going to happen. I'm pretty sure that a good percentage of the people on this planet are probably Fark. As for me, I just don't know. Right now, if I had to, I could run off into the woods and sustain myself for the rest of my life. I have enough knowledge about my ecological surroundings that I could do this. However, the unknowns are to great. I know next to nothing about the changes that will take place ecologically in the next twenty years. It's more than possible that all the lakes in N.Saskatchewan could be piped down to the states to irrigate their crops over the next 20 years. It's also possible that when climate change really sets in everyone might move up north, and cut down my forest. Who knows. Hell, they could nuke us all tommorrow and their wouldn't be a thing we could do about it.
On the other hand, Oil could peak, and I could slip off into the wilderness with my family never to be bothered again, living the good life at the lake. Who knows?
Joined: Oct 10, 2004 Posts: 476 Location: Chicago, IL
Posted: Thu Oct 28, 2004 6:06 pm Post subject:
I am pessimistic. It is mostly a defense mechanism of mine to think the worst. In this manner, I am not disappointed. Right now, I am predicting a flaming Boeing 747 piloted by silverback gorillas on a week-long meth binge, plummeting at a ninety degree angle towards the bottom of the Grand Canyon kind of crash. Of course, predicting would mean you have to incoporate some kind of reasoning. I really don't. I think as a pessimist so the outcome won't seem so bad. _________________ "Abortion doctors aren't baby killers. They're life un-ruiners"
Posted: Thu Oct 28, 2004 6:53 pm Post subject: This is my take
been reading this fourm from about may i think
The idea is sound we will peak the data is there but its not hard number theres some give on when some say 10 year some say 20 they high up there ones say 50 ( i dont think we have that mutch ) Some say like this year or happening now.
I think im resting my view on 5 to 15 years. then again it could be sooner. When it happens or at least starts to happen poaching will go up
stealing will rise and in the case of norther states you will see the robberys go up near and during winter ( higher energy costs at that time)
If some form of other energy isnt found by the time we hit peak. at that point the crime will hit a critical peak when people just start to go hungry or not have enuff money to buy food for there familys then thats when things will start to go wrong. local law enforment will be overburden
jails will be super full ( even make shif camps or large buildings will be used to house thoes under custody.
martial law will be instuted to try to reinstate some order witch may or may not help depending on how many troops they have to secure the problem and or how wide spread it is. + some might be off fighting wars for energy some weres.
eventualy it will be no use to matain order in rural parts of the country and what left of the gov will try consolidate its power to a few areas were some port citys nuke plants dams any thing that can produce energy.
for other parts generaly anarcy will break loose every person for them selves and or groups that are more fringe groups that devide things by race , religion and then there will be your general canabal out there hunting.
the controled areas will probly fair off better but eventualy fall apart if the troops holdeing power there dont have enuff food for them selves or there familys. Eventauly they will all fade away to fiefdoms with a rueling body of power that esentualy controles fresh watter food sources and energy. after that its anyones guess welp thats my senerio that plays out in my head. hehe or my 2 cents anyway.
Things are bad in much of the world now, and things will get worse before they get better (if ever). So I am a pessimist. But I think Homo sapiens is as hard to exterminate as Rattus norvegicus (sp?), so I am not an extinctionist.
Joined: Oct 19, 2004 Posts: 108 Location: Carlisle, PA
Posted: Fri Oct 29, 2004 2:47 pm Post subject:
I voted "unsure" because nothing else seemed to fit.
I think the world will change drastically. But this *encouages* me rtaher than depressing me.
I'm not a fan of our consumer-based marketing-driven corporate-owned society. I hate advertising, hate malls, hate office jobs. I like animals, like gardening, like baking bread.
I'm *optimistic* because I think that when the SHTF, it'll be a better world.
Joined: Oct 14, 2004 Posts: 1203 Location: Left the cult
Posted: Fri Oct 29, 2004 3:29 pm Post subject:
What is the context for "optimistic"? If you are VHEMT, then optimistic might mean humans dying out. It kinda depends on your value system.
If like me, you apply absolute values, then it doesn't matter which particular bunch of DNA uses up the resources. I don't see any particular value in human culture, nor even in intelligence - they are just ways to improve replication of certain DNA. Other species have caused their own decline, humans would not be the first.
In terms of physics, all the atoms will still be here, just arranged in a different order. The Universe will pretty much not notice what happens on Earth.
Apocalypse Soon?
I think apocalyptic visions are 50/50 with utopian ones - fortune tellers cover pretty much all the bases. In movies at least, the usual post-apocalypse scenario is humans decimated by some external force, scrabbling a living out of a ruined world. A notable exception is Soylent Green, where the world is overrun by starving people, but luckily the leaders develop a logical solution to the problem. _________________ It's all downhill from here
Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 224 Location: Illinois, USA
Posted: Fri Oct 29, 2004 5:37 pm Post subject:
I'm a weird kind of "optimist." I believe society will completely collapse, but that it's a good thing. I probably would have voted "hopeful" instead a couple weeks ago, because the deaths of billions of humans would have really cut down on how optimistic I was. But now, I find myself hardly able to care about the hardships or deaths of anybody who willingly participates in and perpetuates our current oppressive, destructive, and unsustainable society.
This happened after I realized how selfish, uncaring, and unwilling-to-change most people in our society are; and how it's mostly going to be such people, hopelessly attached to our destroy-and-grow society, that will be suffering and dieing when this society dies. The only people in this society I can honestly say I feel sorry for are the children. (Don't get me wrong on this last paragraph: I didn't say people in this society deserve to die, I just said they aren't getting any of my sympathy.)
bobcousins wrote:
What is the context for "optimistic"?
First, for me, the only thing in the world that seems to have intrinsic value (that is, seems to be intrinsically good) is happiness, and all other things become "good" or "bad" according to how much happiness they make. Second, I consider a being to be worthy of moral consideration according to how capable it is of feeling happiness/pain. Third, my personal moral system is composed of a mixture of egoism, a concept of justice/fairness, and utilitarianism. Therefore, my context for optimistic is how happy something makes me, those who deserve happiness, and sentient beings in general; and, taking those into consideration, I'd say I'm optimistic about the collapse of our current society.
Joined: May 24, 2004 Posts: 1938 Location: Richland Center, Wisconsin
Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2005 5:35 pm Post subject: Poll
Let's float this puppy one last time.... _________________ --------------------------------
| Whose reality is this anyway!? |
--------------------------------
(-------< Temet Nosce >-------)
____________________________
Joined: Dec 03, 2004 Posts: 1173 Location: Seattle, Wa.
Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2005 6:14 pm Post subject:
I voted hopeful that the consequences of Peak Oil will nudge society in the direction of a more sustainable eco oriented pattern of living but i am doubtful the process will be pleasant. We are talking about a cultural shift from malignant or parasitic in relationship to the planet to one of benign or producing a net benefit. Culturally possible but we have no historical example of a dominant culture achieving this. Certain philisophical constructs in cultures like the Hopis or Tibetans demonstrate this relatioship to their environments but neither of these cultures were dominant.
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