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Peakoil.com :: View topic - US Army Corps of Engineers Peak Oil Report
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US Army Corps of Engineers Peak Oil Report
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MonteQuest
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PostPosted: Wed May 03, 2006 11:45 pm    Post subject: US Army Corps of Engineers Peak Oil Report Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

The report that Rep. Roscoe Bartlett refers to:

Energy Trends and Their Implications for U.S. Army Installations

Quote:
The doubling of oil prices from 2003-2005 is not an anomaly, but a picture of the future. Oil production is approaching its peak; low growth in availability can be expected for the next 5 to 10 years. As worldwide petroleum production peaks, geopolitics and market economics will cause even more significant price increases and security risks. One can only speculate at the outcome from this scenario as world petroleum production declines.

Quote:
Energy consumption is indispensable to our standard of living and a necessity for the Army to carry out its mission. However, current trends are not sustainable. The impact of excessive, unsustainable energy consumption may undermine the very culture and activities it supports.


Quote:
Oil shale and tar sands energy ROI is negative, significant environmental impact.


Quote:
Currently, non-OPEC nations have been at maximum production and will most likely peak as predicted. Figure 2 shows the projected worldwide oil production (based on analyses from the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas [ASPO]). Note that these are considered pessimistic projections. Others predict far higher production for the future, but discoveries to date have not born out the predictions of the optimists.


Quote:
Demand now exceeds production and we are seeing that effect on prices. After the peak is reached, geopolitics and market economics will result in significant price increases above what we have seen to date. Security risks will also rise. To guess where this is all going to take us is would be too speculative. Oil wars are certainly not out of the question.

Link to pdf file

No wonder this was swept under the rug like the Hirsch Report; they don't mince their words either.

Put on a pot of coffee, there is a ton of data here.
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A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.


Last edited by MonteQuest on Wed Nov 15, 2006 7:05 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Battle_Scarred_Galactico
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PostPosted: Thu May 04, 2006 1:52 am    Post subject: Re: US Army Corps of Engineers Energy Report Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I'm glad to see someone is living in the real world.
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pup55
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PostPosted: Thu May 04, 2006 3:18 am    Post subject: Re: US Army Corps of Engineers Energy Report Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I believe this is the earlier thread:

http://peakoil.com/fortopic18248-0-asc-45.html

Anyway, the question of the day is: Is this one of those activities for which a negative EROEI will be ignored?

Example: you need a lot of diesel to run the bountiful number of AFV's (tanks) now in the US Army. Do you convert your remaining coal supply to diesel somehow to keep these things running, or use the supply more efficiently for other more useful activities.

For a clue, we can go back to the $5000 toilet seat: Typically our elected officials have regarded the military as a "money is no object" activity. I imagine "eroei is no object" would be the approach for awhile.
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whereagles
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PostPosted: Thu May 04, 2006 3:51 am    Post subject: Re: US Army Corps of Engineers Energy Report Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

This report is public? Shocked The stuff inside should be for the strategic command only Rolling Eyes
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Ludi
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PostPosted: Thu May 04, 2006 6:31 am    Post subject: Re: US Army Corps of Engineers Energy Report Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

pup55 wrote:
I believe this is the earlier thread:

http://peakoil.com/fortopic18248-0-asc-45.html

Anyway, the question of the day is: Is this one of those activities for which a negative EROEI will be ignored?

Example: you need a lot of diesel to run the bountiful number of AFV's (tanks) now in the US Army. Do you convert your remaining coal supply to diesel somehow to keep these things running, or use the supply more efficiently for other more useful activities.

For a clue, we can go back to the $5000 toilet seat: Typically our elected officials have regarded the military as a "money is no object" activity. I imagine "eroei is no object" would be the approach for awhile.


Of course eroei is no object for the military. The military will strive to continue as they have, in our military-industrial complex, dragging the rest of us along with it, for as long as possible. Only if the people refuse to support the military in these wasteful endeavors can there be a change. Which means, of course, we'll have to "revolt" somehow and refuse to support this system. Will the military then turn against the people?
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MonteQuest
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PostPosted: Thu May 04, 2006 10:12 am    Post subject: Re: US Army Corps of Engineers Energy Report Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

pup55 wrote:
I believe this is the earlier thread:

http://peakoil.com/fortopic18248-0-asc-45.html

Anyway, the question of the day is: Is this one of those activities for which a negative EROEI will be ignored?


Thanks for the link pup, I was about to add it myself. The thread had been buried in the sediments and I felt it was apropos to add this report as a corroboration to the Hirsch Report here in PO discussion.

As to your question...I think it explains why we are pouring $$ into tar sands, ethanol, etc when we know they are not even going to put a dent in things. Perhaps it is a lot like Hitler and his coal to gas?

Hitler should have gone to the Caspians first for oil.

Iraq is the US Army fuel dump of the future for the waging of war..
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A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.


Last edited by MonteQuest on Thu May 04, 2006 6:07 pm; edited 1 time in total
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seahorse
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PostPosted: Thu May 04, 2006 10:38 am    Post subject: Re: US Army Corps of Engineers Energy Report Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Iraq is the US' "Stalingrad"
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dinopello
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PostPosted: Thu May 04, 2006 10:29 pm    Post subject: Re: US Army Corps of Engineers Energy Report Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

There is an interview with one of the report's authors by David Room

http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/interviews/700
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Frank
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PostPosted: Fri May 05, 2006 10:49 am    Post subject: Re: US Army Corps of Engineers Energy Report Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I have to wonder if the issue will get more attention in the White House, as it's coming from the army and not a bunch of unpatriotic liberals... Laughing Laughing Laughing

Also interesting is that they refused to speculate with any precision on a PO date (2005-2020, non-OPEC first).
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DJ_Mittens
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PostPosted: Fri May 05, 2006 11:31 am    Post subject: Re: US Army Corps of Engineers Energy Report Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

The military is not naive, as much of their population is. They know exactly what is going on. And yes, to keep that fuel pumping, they will do whatever is necessary.

Ludi wrote:
Will the military then turn against the people?


That is a very interesting question. One I have not considered before.

Is the government, with the military, a sort of Golem created by the population that the population is now too weak to defeat?

Will the government begin dictating to the population for their own good?

Will the government begin widespread drafting of the population not only to fight wars abroad but to maintain control domestically?

Will democracy be replaced with a quasi-fascist dictatorship, where the population has only two or three equally disagreeable choices to vote upon?


It doesn't strike me as a large leap.
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Ludi
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PostPosted: Fri May 05, 2006 12:39 pm    Post subject: Re: US Army Corps of Engineers Energy Report Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

In the US, our government is being replaced by a fascist dictatorship of sorts with the prez deciding he is above the law (see his "signing statements"). Fortunately it seems large chunks of the military are no longer on his side. I don't think a military coup is likely, though possible.

I'm very interested to see what excuse will be used to disuade the populace from voting come this Fall. I foresee an outbreak of Avian Flu, personally.
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PO_TimeCr0ss
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PostPosted: Sat May 06, 2006 9:22 pm    Post subject: Re: US Army Corps of Engineers Energy Report Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Wow, this report is amazing. Even more so that it comes from the ACE.

My jaw slammed into the floor upon some of the things said in this report. I would wish that such a groundbreaking report would be more publisized.
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rwwff
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PostPosted: Sat May 06, 2006 10:48 pm    Post subject: Re: US Army Corps of Engineers Energy Report Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

This is one of the things that strikes me as peculiar about American politics, really ever since Clinton won his first election with less than a majority of the popular vote. People on the party opposite think they are being taken over by a fascist dictatorship; when all that has really happened is that they lost an election, and elections have consequences. I'm hoping that this is a passing trend, because its certainly not healthy. If a Democrat wins the presidency in 2008, it won' t be the end of American Democracy, and who knows, if we get lucky, we can get a Democrat pres and a Republican congress then maybe we can cut out all this earmark spending that has just gone wacko in recent years.

As to the military and peak oil, I think yall can relax, the US can produce internally enough diesel and kerosene to run our military vehicles for a very long time. Its the question of how much would be left over for civilian use that is the serious issue. Personally, as long as the troops don't have to skimp with regard to fuel, ammo, and food; I feel pretty ok about the taxes I pay.
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EnviroEngr
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PostPosted: Sun May 07, 2006 11:37 pm    Post subject: Re: US Army Corps of Engineers Energy Report Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

MonteQuest wrote:
The report that Rep. Roscoe Bartlett refers to:

Energy Trends and Their Implications for U.S. Army Installations

Quote:
The doubling of oil prices from 2003-2005 is not an anomaly, but a picture of the future. Oil production is approaching its peak; low growth in availability can be expected for the next 5 to 10 years. As worldwide petroleum production peaks, geopolitics and market economics will cause even more significant price increases and security risks. One can only speculate at the outcome from this scenario as world petroleum production declines.

Quote:
Energy consumption is indispensable to our standard of living and a necessity for the Army to carry out its mission. However, current trends are not sustainable. The impact of excessive, unsustainable energy consumption may undermine the very culture and activities it supports.


Quote:
Oil shale and tar sands energy ROI is negative, significant environmental impact.


Quote:
Currently, non-OPEC nations have been at maximum production and will most likely peak as predicted. Figure 2 shows the projected worldwide oil production (based on analyses from the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas [ASPO]). Note that these are considered pessimistic projections. Others predict far higher production for the future, but discoveries to date have not born out the predictions of the optimists.


Quote:
Demand now exceeds production and we are seeing that effect on prices. After the peak is reached, geopolitics and market economics will result in significant price increases above what we have seen to date. Security risks will also rise. To guess where this is all going to take us is would be too speculative. Oil wars are certainly not out of the question.

Link to pdf file

No wonder this was swept under the rug like the Hirsch Report; they don't mince their words either.

Put on a pot of coffee, there is a ton of data here.


I'm having a strange Déjà Vu experience here. Wasn't this published last Fall sometime? Did Roscoe publish it or pieces of it?

Maybe it really is time for some back ward visits....
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MonteQuest
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PostPosted: Mon May 08, 2006 11:06 am    Post subject: Re: US Army Corps of Engineers Energy Report Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

EnviroEngr wrote:
I'm having a strange Déjà Vu experience here. Wasn't this published last Fall sometime? Did Roscoe publish it or pieces of it?

Maybe it really is time for some back ward visits....


He recently brought it up on one of his C-Span presentations and I thought it time to add it to the "priority threads" of PO Discussion.
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Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
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