Hoarding is exactly what the government is doing right now by filling the SPR, and frankly it's the best thing that could happen. It drives prices up. High prices encourage demand destruction. They also finance new well development. The hoarded oil gives us a buffer to fall back on once shortages become more prevalent. High prices are what we need in order to adapt to what's coming, and the sooner they happen, the better.
Posted: Wed May 03, 2006 11:45 pm Post subject: US Army Corps of Engineers Peak Oil Report
The report that Rep. Roscoe Bartlett refers to:
Energy Trends and Their Implications for U.S. Army Installations
Quote:
The doubling of oil prices from 2003-2005 is not an anomaly, but a picture of the future. Oil production is approaching its peak; low growth in availability can be expected for the next 5 to 10 years. As worldwide petroleum production peaks, geopolitics and market economics will cause even more significant price increases and security risks. One can only speculate at the outcome from this scenario as world petroleum production declines.
Quote:
Energy consumption is indispensable to our standard of living and a necessity for the Army to carry out its mission. However, current trends are not sustainable. The impact of excessive, unsustainable energy consumption may undermine the very culture and activities it supports.
Quote:
Oil shale and tar sands energy ROI is negative, significant environmental impact.
Quote:
Currently, non-OPEC nations have been at maximum production and will most likely peak as predicted. Figure 2 shows the projected worldwide oil production (based on analyses from the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas [ASPO]). Note that these are considered pessimistic projections. Others predict far higher production for the future, but discoveries to date have not born out the predictions of the optimists.
Quote:
Demand now exceeds production and we are seeing that effect on prices. After the peak is reached, geopolitics and market economics will result in significant price increases above what we have seen to date. Security risks will also rise. To guess where this is all going to take us is would be too speculative. Oil wars are certainly not out of the question.
No wonder this was swept under the rug like the Hirsch Report; they don't mince their words either.
Put on a pot of coffee, there is a ton of data here. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Last edited by MonteQuest on Wed Nov 15, 2006 7:05 pm; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Thu May 04, 2006 1:52 am Post subject: Re: US Army Corps of Engineers Energy Report
I'm glad to see someone is living in the real world. _________________ "One minute I held the key, next the walls were closed on me, and I discovered that my castle stands upon pillars of salt and pillars of sand."
Anyway, the question of the day is: Is this one of those activities for which a negative EROEI will be ignored?
Example: you need a lot of diesel to run the bountiful number of AFV's (tanks) now in the US Army. Do you convert your remaining coal supply to diesel somehow to keep these things running, or use the supply more efficiently for other more useful activities.
For a clue, we can go back to the $5000 toilet seat: Typically our elected officials have regarded the military as a "money is no object" activity. I imagine "eroei is no object" would be the approach for awhile.
Anyway, the question of the day is: Is this one of those activities for which a negative EROEI will be ignored?
Example: you need a lot of diesel to run the bountiful number of AFV's (tanks) now in the US Army. Do you convert your remaining coal supply to diesel somehow to keep these things running, or use the supply more efficiently for other more useful activities.
For a clue, we can go back to the $5000 toilet seat: Typically our elected officials have regarded the military as a "money is no object" activity. I imagine "eroei is no object" would be the approach for awhile.
Of course eroei is no object for the military. The military will strive to continue as they have, in our military-industrial complex, dragging the rest of us along with it, for as long as possible. Only if the people refuse to support the military in these wasteful endeavors can there be a change. Which means, of course, we'll have to "revolt" somehow and refuse to support this system. Will the military then turn against the people? _________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow..." - jboogy
Anyway, the question of the day is: Is this one of those activities for which a negative EROEI will be ignored?
Thanks for the link pup, I was about to add it myself. The thread had been buried in the sediments and I felt it was apropos to add this report as a corroboration to the Hirsch Report here in PO discussion.
As to your question...I think it explains why we are pouring $$ into tar sands, ethanol, etc when we know they are not even going to put a dent in things. Perhaps it is a lot like Hitler and his coal to gas?
Hitler should have gone to the Caspians first for oil.
Iraq is the US Army fuel dump of the future for the waging of war.. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Last edited by MonteQuest on Thu May 04, 2006 6:07 pm; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Fri May 05, 2006 11:31 am Post subject: Re: US Army Corps of Engineers Energy Report
The military is not naive, as much of their population is. They know exactly what is going on. And yes, to keep that fuel pumping, they will do whatever is necessary.
Ludi wrote:
Will the military then turn against the people?
That is a very interesting question. One I have not considered before.
Is the government, with the military, a sort of Golem created by the population that the population is now too weak to defeat?
Will the government begin dictating to the population for their own good?
Will the government begin widespread drafting of the population not only to fight wars abroad but to maintain control domestically?
Will democracy be replaced with a quasi-fascist dictatorship, where the population has only two or three equally disagreeable choices to vote upon?
It doesn't strike me as a large leap. _________________ -Jeff
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 11367 Location: Village of Idiots
Posted: Fri May 05, 2006 12:39 pm Post subject: Re: US Army Corps of Engineers Energy Report
In the US, our government is being replaced by a fascist dictatorship of sorts with the prez deciding he is above the law (see his "signing statements"). Fortunately it seems large chunks of the military are no longer on his side. I don't think a military coup is likely, though possible.
I'm very interested to see what excuse will be used to disuade the populace from voting come this Fall. I foresee an outbreak of Avian Flu, personally. _________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow..." - jboogy
Joined: Apr 11, 2005 Posts: 72 Location: Sin City, NV
Posted: Sat May 06, 2006 9:22 pm Post subject: Re: US Army Corps of Engineers Energy Report
Wow, this report is amazing. Even more so that it comes from the ACE.
My jaw slammed into the floor upon some of the things said in this report. I would wish that such a groundbreaking report would be more publisized. _________________ " Previous energy transitions were gradual and evolutionary. Oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary"
Joined: Apr 28, 2006 Posts: 2898 Location: East Texas
Posted: Sat May 06, 2006 10:48 pm Post subject: Re: US Army Corps of Engineers Energy Report
This is one of the things that strikes me as peculiar about American politics, really ever since Clinton won his first election with less than a majority of the popular vote. People on the party opposite think they are being taken over by a fascist dictatorship; when all that has really happened is that they lost an election, and elections have consequences. I'm hoping that this is a passing trend, because its certainly not healthy. If a Democrat wins the presidency in 2008, it won' t be the end of American Democracy, and who knows, if we get lucky, we can get a Democrat pres and a Republican congress then maybe we can cut out all this earmark spending that has just gone wacko in recent years.
As to the military and peak oil, I think yall can relax, the US can produce internally enough diesel and kerosene to run our military vehicles for a very long time. Its the question of how much would be left over for civilian use that is the serious issue. Personally, as long as the troops don't have to skimp with regard to fuel, ammo, and food; I feel pretty ok about the taxes I pay.
Joined: May 24, 2004 Posts: 1914 Location: Richland Center, Wisconsin
Posted: Sun May 07, 2006 11:37 pm Post subject: Re: US Army Corps of Engineers Energy Report
MonteQuest wrote:
The report that Rep. Roscoe Bartlett refers to:
Energy Trends and Their Implications for U.S. Army Installations
Quote:
The doubling of oil prices from 2003-2005 is not an anomaly, but a picture of the future. Oil production is approaching its peak; low growth in availability can be expected for the next 5 to 10 years. As worldwide petroleum production peaks, geopolitics and market economics will cause even more significant price increases and security risks. One can only speculate at the outcome from this scenario as world petroleum production declines.
Quote:
Energy consumption is indispensable to our standard of living and a necessity for the Army to carry out its mission. However, current trends are not sustainable. The impact of excessive, unsustainable energy consumption may undermine the very culture and activities it supports.
Quote:
Oil shale and tar sands energy ROI is negative, significant environmental impact.
Quote:
Currently, non-OPEC nations have been at maximum production and will most likely peak as predicted. Figure 2 shows the projected worldwide oil production (based on analyses from the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas [ASPO]). Note that these are considered pessimistic projections. Others predict far higher production for the future, but discoveries to date have not born out the predictions of the optimists.
Quote:
Demand now exceeds production and we are seeing that effect on prices. After the peak is reached, geopolitics and market economics will result in significant price increases above what we have seen to date. Security risks will also rise. To guess where this is all going to take us is would be too speculative. Oil wars are certainly not out of the question.
No wonder this was swept under the rug like the Hirsch Report; they don't mince their words either.
Put on a pot of coffee, there is a ton of data here.
I'm having a strange Déjà Vu experience here. Wasn't this published last Fall sometime? Did Roscoe publish it or pieces of it?
Maybe it really is time for some back ward visits.... _________________ --------------------------------
| Whose reality is this anyway!? |
--------------------------------
(-------< Temet Nosce >-------)
____________________________
Posted: Mon May 08, 2006 11:06 am Post subject: Re: US Army Corps of Engineers Energy Report
EnviroEngr wrote:
I'm having a strange Déjà Vu experience here. Wasn't this published last Fall sometime? Did Roscoe publish it or pieces of it?
Maybe it really is time for some back ward visits....
He recently brought it up on one of his C-Span presentations and I thought it time to add it to the "priority threads" of PO Discussion. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum
News
Discussions
Resources
Members
Forum FAQ
Search
Usergroups
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
The stuff inside should be for the strategic command only 
