Joined: May 24, 2004 Posts: 1932 Location: Richland Center, Wisconsin
Posted: Sun Mar 26, 2006 7:01 pm Post subject: Dale Allen Pfeiffer's Home Thread
Because of Dale's unique position in this community and his groundbreaking works that, for all intents and purposes, brought many of us to know about Peak Oil, I have decided to create something similar to a BlogSpot for him.
There have been some tactless and poorly thought out levelings brought against him for minor ways and means procedures on the forum effected by annie in recent times.
In an overarching effort to prevent similar misunderstandings from occurring in the future, I will personally oversee all of Dale's contributions by way of this Forum.
What will follow will be articles, commentary, answers to questions posted to Dale, hotlinks and references. As is the case with Mike Lynch, more in-depth analysis and writings are part of professional services rendered for pay. If these are sought, like anything else on the market, there will be a cost. I will make every effort to make 'for fee' readily distinguishable from 'for fRee'. _________________ --------------------------------
| Whose reality is this anyway!? |
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(-------< Temet Nosce >-------)
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Posted: Sun Mar 26, 2006 10:27 pm Post subject: Re: Dale Allen Pfeiffer's Home Thread
I suggest that the Mountain Sentinel should be listed on the Menu left side there on PO.com under resources. Not just as part of the downloads but as element by itself.
Joined: May 24, 2004 Posts: 1932 Location: Richland Center, Wisconsin
Posted: Fri May 05, 2006 10:15 pm Post subject: Re: Dale Allen Pfeiffer's Home Thread
albente wrote:
I suggest that the Mountain Sentinel should be listed on the Menu left side there on PO.com under resources. Not just as part of the downloads but as element by itself.
Looks like a good idea. Should have a little more time here eventually; I'll take up with that....
Thanks. _________________ --------------------------------
| Whose reality is this anyway!? |
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(-------< Temet Nosce >-------)
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Joined: May 24, 2004 Posts: 1932 Location: Richland Center, Wisconsin
Posted: Fri May 05, 2006 10:37 pm Post subject: Re: Dale Allen Pfeiffer's Home Thread
Here's an editorial that Dale just wrote:
Energy Depletion and Immigration
by
Dale Allen Pfeiffer
Our Congress has produced a draconian new immigration bill that would attempt to close US borders and severely oppress immigrants—particularly illegal immigrants—within this country. These efforts have resulted in a new civil rights movement, which has grown virtually overnight to incorporate protests throughout the country and a national day of boycott honored by millions of workers. The government has answered this new civil rights movement with a surprise raid that rounded up hundreds of illegal immigrants working in sweatshops. The owners of the shops will be fined, but the immigrants will be jailed and then deported. The true purpose for staging these raids right now can only be to intimidate illegal aliens within this country so they will not take part in protest marches or boycotts.
What is the purpose of this new immigration bill? It will not halt the flow of illegal immigrants, or even limit that flow. So long as the US remains a supposed model of economic abundance, people from poorer and more repressive countries will flock here. And so long as they perceive the profits to outweigh the risks there will be citizens in the US seeking to enrich themselves by smuggling aliens into the country. We can no more slop the flow of illegal immigrants across our borders than we can stop the flow of drugs.
Undoubtedly the people who drafted this legislation know this. They are not complete idiots. So what is the real reason for such draconian legislation? To find the answer to this question, perhaps we need to determine what this legislation will do.
If this legislation becomes law, it will drive illegal immigrants further underground. It will leave them completely at the mercy of their employers. No matter how they are abused or misused, they will be too fearful of imprisonment and deportation to speak up. This legislation will complete the transformation of illegal immigrants into a new form of unseen and unheard slave class, totally at the mercy of their employers.
Is it a coincidence that this new legislation was drafted so soon after the partial success of farm workers in Immokole fighting for better conditions and better pay against the fast food giants who want a cheap source of tomatoes and lettuce for their burgers and tacos? The true purpose of this new legislation could be to nip a growing immigrant labor movement in the bud. Furthermore, as economic conditions within this country and around the world deteriorate, this repressive legislation would help to keep a growing population of immigrant laborers under control.
Those who have studied the subject of energy depletion and its implications have long been concerned about the problem of feeding our growing population as the production of fossil fuels continues to diminish. Without fossil fuel inputs, it is estimated that agriculture in the US will only be able to feed two-thirds of our current population. And without fossil fuels, the world population would have to decline to 2.5 billion in order to be sustainable. (See Eating Fossil Fuels, Pfeiffer, Dale Allen. In press, New Society Publishers. To be released in October of 2006).
Those who are aware of this problem have argued that one step in limiting the US population would be to close our borders. I have not agreed with them. As stated above, closing our borders alone will not stop the flow of illegal immigrants. It will only leave them more at the mercy of their employers within this country. As long as there is such a disparity in wealth and well-being between the US and other countries, there will be people attempting to flee to the US no matter what abuse they are met with on this side of the border.
If we truly want to solve the immigration problem, then we must start by addressing the reasons why people would rather slave in the US than remain in their homelands. To solve the immigration problem, we must first face the fact that the US has built itself upon the riches of other nations. Over the past centuries, we have virtually robbed the resources from the rest of the world. We have done this by supporting corrupt governments that would sell us their resources for pennies, by setting up death squads and counter-insurgency forces wherever people tired of their US-backed oppression, and by staging interventions wherever populist movements or politicians threaten the flow of resources. All of this has led to conditions where immigrants must flee to the US if they want to savor some portion of the riches extracted from their own countries.
The only way to solve this problem is to stop our flagrant appropriation of the world's wealth. If we want to stop the flow of illegal immigrants into this country, then we must raise up the living conditions in their homelands. We must give them a reason to remain where they are and give them hope for their future. If these people could make a decent living in their own countries, they would not want to leave everything that is dear to them in order to slave in the US.
To affect this program, we must first curb our own consumption. But this is something that we must do if we are to survive anyway. Conspicuous consumption must come to an end, or we are all doomed. We must also stop supporting corrupt governments and death squads. We must instead place our backing behind truly democratic reforms in agriculture and all resources, and throughout the workplace and all of society. We could do all of this for only a fraction of our current military budget. Let's start in Iraq, by nationalizing the Iraqi energy resources and returning control over them to the Iraqi public.
It is most ironic that Presidente Chavez of Venezuela, whom the Bush administration has been trying to topple for several years, is probably closest to the model of the sort of political leader that the US should be backing in order to solve our immigration problem.
If we cannot solve this problem in a rational and compassionate manner, then we will all suffer for it. A new slave immigrant class within the US could (and would) be used as a tool to demolish worker's rights within this country, particularly in a contracting economy due to energy depletion. In this case, those who thoughtlessly support a crackdown on illegal immigrants are ultimately pounding the nails into their own coffin. _________________ --------------------------------
| Whose reality is this anyway!? |
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(-------< Temet Nosce >-------)
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They are still under construction but now contain several articles and links to information and news.
Dale has been at the forefront of the Peak Oil movement for a while now and continues to be a very valuable resource in planning and responding to it. Please lend support to his efforts where you can. _________________ --------------------------------
| Whose reality is this anyway!? |
--------------------------------
(-------< Temet Nosce >-------)
____________________________
Joined: May 24, 2004 Posts: 1932 Location: Richland Center, Wisconsin
Posted: Fri May 05, 2006 11:44 pm Post subject: Re: Dale Allen Pfeiffer's Home Thread
GRITS Newsletter — April 20th, 2006
Contents
Goodbyes, Redesigning, & Launching of Sister Site
New Articles
1. Peak Oil Solution Theory
2. Lighting Out for the Territory Ahead
The Mountain Sentinel, Vol. 1, No. 2
• Introduction
• Energy Overview
===================================
We have lots of good news to report here at survivingpeakoil.com. So let's get on with it.
Goodbyes, Redesigning & Launching of Sister Site
We offer up a resounding ovation to Doug Mealing for the work he has done setting up survivingpeakoil.com and acting as webmaster. Doug is relinquishing his duties at SPO.com so he can devote more time to his own web design business down in Costa Rica. Good luck, Doug.
Let's welcome on board my stepson, Daniel Payne, who will be filling Doug's shoes. Daniel's first job was to completely redesign SPO.com and build a sister site, www.mountainsentinel.com. Be sure to check out both sites and let us know what you think on the forum. Daniel has given the home pages a simple, pleasing and functional design. He has also changed the fonts and background colors for better readability. Some areas of the site are still under construction. It will take some time to code in all the entries for the store. And there are probably some little bugs that still need to be worked out. If you discover any problems while surfing the site, please let us know at dale&survivingpeakoil.com.
===================================
New Articles
Peak Oil Solution Theory, by Tate Ulsaker
This is one of the best peak oil articles I have read. It is short and to the point, and the advice is very practical (though some of it may fly in the face of conventional wisdom). I would offer only one qualifier. Where Tate mentions selling your home, I would offer the following amendment. If you are where you want to be and you can do so, pay off your mortgage. Otherwise, if you are not where you want to be or you owe too much on your mortgage, you will probably be better off to sell and follow the rest of Tate's advice.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Lighting Out for the Territory Ahead, by Joseph E. Fasciani
Our second new offering is a very readable overview of our current dilemma and how we got here. The advice at the end is very general, but nonetheless sound. Apologies to Joseph for somehow losing his name on the posted article, we will correct that mistake as soon as possible.
The Mountain Sentinel, Vol. 1, No. 2
The second issue of The Mountain Sentinel is now available for download or print purchase. Here follows the entire Introduction from this issue & the Energy Overview. For more details on how to purchase the entire issue, check www.mountainsentinel.com, or http://www.lulu.com/content/274203
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Introduction
The theme for this issue is the cost of exploitation. Not only does exploitation degrade that which is exploited, it also degrades the exploiter. In this issue, we will examine where exploitation of oil reserves has brought us with regard to peak oil, the health of the world's giant oil fields, and the ability of our exploitive socioeconomic system to adapt to diminishing oil production. We comment on how the invasion of Iraq, the deaths of thousands of innocent Iraqis, and the humiliation of war prisoners has contributed to our own degradation, both civilian and soldier alike. We will reflect on how the drilling of ANWR signals the exploitation of the last remaining wilderness areas in North America, and how it will leave us all a little less free. And we will learn that biofuels are an energy loser which will only increase the degradation of land, air and water. Finally, the second installment of Of Our Own Design will explore some of the ways in which each of us is complicit in our society of exploitation, and how we are yet able to deny culpability.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Energy Overview
From the last week of March until the time this issue went to press retail gasoline prices have been rising. By April 3rd, gasoline prices were averaging $2.59 per gallon. This increase is mainly due to futures speculation. Gasoline inventories have been dropping, but are still above the upper end of the average range.
Diesel inventories have been dropping as well, but also remain above the upper end of the average range. Crude inputs at refineries declined in the week prior to this report (the week of March 31st), as did gasoline and distillate fuel production. Commercial oil inventories, however, continue to be on the rise, well above the upper end of the average range.
There are two main factors influencing gasoline prices. The first is that refinery maintenance for April is projected to be larger than in recent years. If the projections pan out, it could lead to significant draws on inventories. Should gasoline inventories draw another 8 million barrels over the next four weeks (an average draw of 2 million barrels each week), which is certainly possible if the projections of large refinery maintenance hold true, they would end the month just above the bottom end of the average range.
The second main factor is that by May 5th, the entire US will switch from MTBE as an oxygenate fuel additive to ethanol RFG. While the abandonment of MBTE is a good thing, considering the additives carcinogenic effects, there are many possible problems with the switch to ethanol. For one thing, no one is sure is ethanol production is currently sufficient to meet the demand. For another, Ethanol cannot be piped; it will separate into water and liquids in pipelines. For this reason, all ethanol has to be trucked to market. The blending of ethanol and gasoline must be done at the retail level, usually at wholesale tank farms before it is transported to local filling stations.
Because of refinery maintenance and the uncertainly surrounding the mass transition to ethanol, futures speculation could well drive the price of gasoline up to $4.00 per gallon at the pump by June. And this is not considering that ethanol costs more to produce than gasoline, as reported in this issue in the article The Dirty Truth about Biofuels. It appears that we are beginning to reap the economic fruits of our uninformed subsidy of the ethanol industry.
What is more, should upcoming month see some unforeseen supply disruption, gasoline prices may well surge above $5.00 per gallon. Among the possible disruptions, are terrorism, supply disruptions in Nigeria or Colombia due to civil wars, the US bombing and invasion of Iran, or a bad spring hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico.
Damage from last fall's hurricanes still has not been completely prepared, and we are already bracing for the next hurricane season. Colorado State University's Tropical Meteorology Program has forecast a hurricane season much more active than the 1950-2000 average. The forecast expects that net tropical cyclone activity in 2006 will be 195 percent of the long-term (1950-2000) average with 17 named storms (compared with an average of 9.6), 9 hurricanes (compared with 5.9), and 5 intense hurricanes (compared with 2.3). The report also predicts a significantly above-average probability that at least one major hurricane (category 3-4-5) will strike land on various coastal areas in 2006. The probability is 64 percent that a hurricane would make landfall on the U.S. East Coast (compared with a 31 percent average for the last century), 47 percent on the Gulf Coast (compared with 30 percent), and 81 percent on the entire U.S. coastline (compared with 52 percent).
The winter heating season ended on March 31st, with natural gas storage 62.8% above the five year average for that date, and 35.8% above last years' storage on that date. This was largely due to the warm winter. Overall, temperatures were 8.6 percent warmer than normal for the heating season. Unfortunately, the last week of March and beginning of April have weather slightly colder than usual in much of the country (2% colder than normal and about 14% colder than last year for the last week of March). This led to a -10 Bcf withdrawal from storage and resulted in spot price increases at most markets locations. _________________ --------------------------------
| Whose reality is this anyway!? |
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(-------< Temet Nosce >-------)
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Last edited by EnviroEngr on Sat May 06, 2006 12:09 am; edited 3 times in total
The following is one of the submissions to survivingpeakoil.com. I think
this is some of the best advice I have heard to date. Very short, very
concise. And it flies in the face of conventional wisdom (including what
we have been doing for the past year). Please take heed. We are
currently trying to determine how we can fix this place up so we can
sell it at a profit.
I would add the caveat that, if you are already located where you want
to be and own your home, stay put. If your mortgage is low enough or is
nearly paid off, then you should make it your goal to finish paying it
off as quickly as possible. You also need to consider how you are going
to pay your property taxes in upcoming years. If you owe too much on
your mortgage to pay it off within the next year (like we do), then you
should seriously consider selling and following this man's advice.
Every solution has a basis in theory. As man thinks, we create destiny
in our minds and then try to manifest out thoughts by a set of
actions—some conscious and others unconscious.
Let's pretend that if we can just understand the problem well enough,
then we will have the power to manifest a solution. By those guidelines,
we are encouraged to enter the debate from three definite territories:
Problem Definition, Solution Definition, and of
course the Solving Action required to get us from the problem to the
solution.
Concerning peak oil, we have a healthy set of problems, so let's lay
down a few of the critical fundamentals for the new folks.
Problem Definition of Peak Oil - a summarized view
. We are at the peak of world oil production, which is a natural
consequence following the peak world discovery in 1964.
. We will soon peak in that other fossil fuel, natural gas, as well.
. Since everything that we have, eat and do is primarily brought forth
from oil and natural gas, we will suffer shortages in all things.
. There are no viable alternatives that compare to the loss of cheap and
abundant oil and natural gas, but a set of alternatives may reduce a
small portion of the negative impact.
. In any case, industrial civilization as we know it cannot function
without abundant and cheap fossil fuel energy—and so will collapse.
. As well, our monetary system, which depends upon constant growth to
survive, will collapse.
. Collapse does not wait for "when we run out". Rather, collapse happens
when we can't meet minimum demands to keep our system running, like the
dehydrating body collapses when it loses a minimum amount of water
needed to keep its system running.
. Right now, as we sit on the edge of collapse, a "last man standing"
strategy, as outlined in Heinberg's book Powerdown, has been firmly
established by the leading economic and military power in the world.
This strategy is the default strategy of man throughout history whenever
confronted with scarcity issues. A fight to the last insures that there
will be enough for everyone after we reduce our numbers. The US has
taken the world down this path with the invasion of Iraq, widely seen as
the first act of WWIII.
. Still, not a person in 10,000 understands Peak Oil, even less cares to
discuss it, so solutions are batted back and forth hurriedly and remain
incomplete at all levels of society.
. A continuation of current trends is Malthusian, indicating that die
offs will be increasingly a part of our down-slope adjustment process.
-----------------
Every problem must have a solution, right? The solution may not be
wholistic or complete or fair, but we will all develop solutions of some
sort either now or later. What I see now is a lot of half-baked
solutions out there. Admittedly, the following is incomplete
but I have yet to see something more complete and I would greatly
appreciate advice or direction related to issues of solution.
Solution Definition of Peak Oil - based upon the above hypothesis
. Continue to learn, teach, form support groups, awaken your family,
friends and anyone close to you in your community. This is going to be a
long ride and you might as well become a central figure because nobody
else wants the task.
. Act in the interests of your immediate family first, because that is a
task that you can potentially manage. Pushing a disinterested community
to change is like pushing a string up a hill. But you can plan for
change with your family.
. Begin the planning process with location. If you need some stimulation
before engaging the thought process at hand, flip the power switches off
in your house. A few days without light, heat or power will get the old
grey matter working again. And imagine that
the water would be off as well. So, where in the world would you want to
live under those conditions? Alaska? Siberia? Las Vegas? Come on, let's
make a big list and set evaluation criteria. You can do it.
. Next, imagine life with $50 US a gallon gasoline and no modern grocery
store. Your grand parents were farmers for a reason that will become
increasingly familiar to all of us. Let's try to understand those
reasons now so that we don't suddenly find ourselves trying to deal with
them from our city apartment or suburban home.
. Next, imagine the most wholesome and natural lifestyle in the world.
Are there any possible matches to be made between "running away" and
"running towards". Maybe peak oil is itself a wake up call to all of the
hollow and meaningless lives that modern
civilization has prefabricated for us in the form of nursing homes,
franchises, mass media, and all of these hyped-up, scaled-up events. We
empowered ourselves with oil to divorce ourselves from all meaningful
relationships so that we can hustle as individuals
through crowds of strangers and through piecemeal tasks of some larger
system that we dislike but are conditioned to want products from. So
where is the opposite of all this? Maybe it is with a close-knit family
in a natural setting? I don't know, just wondering.
Commonly Proposed Actions
As with problem definition + solution definition, most of the proposed
actions I have seen so far seem less than half-baked. Even less than
quarter-baked. In fact, I have yet to see anything practical proposed
from anyone besides a catch-line phrase or a quick brush answer. The
actions seem to fall into two main categories:
1) The general statement which seems practical but has no substance for
practical application behind it. For example: "Yup, we should learn to
live off the land", which is a useful skill to be sure but somehow
misses the gravity of a system collapse and a die off.
2) Much worse than the above is the quick brush off statement that seeks
to falsely pacify any concern for doing anything at all. Like "We are
already pretty much prepared for anything. We could easily grow a garden
anytime we want. Don't bother me with the details, we will be fine."
Optimism is a disservice in cases when we need some humble analysis that
covers the comprehensive gambit of issues.
Actions required to get us from here to there
. Get out of debt
. Sell your house prior to the housing crash
. Sell your stocks and bonds and mutual funds (yes, your IRA holdings
too), prior to the stock crash. Warning, the inflation of paper supply
will give you the illusion that your stocks are rising even when they
are flat, so sell and trade in your devaluating notes now for the
world's only 5,000-year-old assets.
. Buy physical precious metals gold and silver and take delivery in your
home or to a privately owned security lock box. (physical shortages of
precious metals + cascading economic collapse = mania in the precious
metals markets to come)
. Go rent a place with your family in that area of the world where you
want to be.
. Get involved and be a reliable support person within a community of
like-minded producers close to organic farming. Become a lobbyist with
local administration officials. Be ready to cater your trade to that
crowd and to become "indispensable" to them as they begin to seek out
those unruly "survivalists".
. Allow global stock and housing markets to correct downwards in their
natural cycles of over-indebtedness cleansing. You will not own property
or fiat instruments of any significance at this time.
. The crash is fast and hard, but you were positioned prior to that
event. The rebuilding will be slow and tedious by comparison, but you
have time in that place where you want to be as systems continue to
unravel. You are that support person watching for the opportunity to own
as the price of targeted agriculturally viable land values based upon
ounces of precious metals flatten out at a bottom, from which you are
prepared now finally to buy.
You are positioned for leadership and growth in a post-crash scenario.
=== === === === === === === === === ===
So that is a summarized view of my "Peak Oil Solution Theory" as it
relates to the only real power that most of us have, which is to
positively influence our own families and communities. However, most
family members that I know remain quite opposed to discussing Peak Oil
and would rather discuss recent local weather patterns.
I suppose that plenty of comprehensive analysis, books and consulting
markets will open up soon. LifeBoat Builders Inc. ArkBuilders
International. _________________ --------------------------------
| Whose reality is this anyway!? |
--------------------------------
(-------< Temet Nosce >-------)
____________________________
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