I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Posted: Wed May 10, 2006 8:51 am Post subject: Re: Heads Up: Simmons Debate on CNBC Coming Up
Cant wait to view the transcript (no cable & i'm @ work...) it'd be interesting if they had the oil futures on the ticker tape while doing the interview, see if that interview is having any real-time effects on the buyers...
Joined: Apr 17, 2005 Posts: 2752 Location: Vancouver Island
Posted: Wed May 10, 2006 8:59 am Post subject: Re: Heads Up: Simmons Debate on CNBC Coming Up
quick summary
Simmons - Peak is coming
Bailey - Yeah eventually but not for a long time because tech is getting better and there are huge reserves
Simmons - Ummm I don't think those reserve numbers are all that accurate and tech has been taking a long time to come on line
Bailey - Whatever, You've also said 4 years ago that the saudi's couldn't increase daily production by 2 million barrels but they have.
Simmons - How do you know that they did that?
Bailey - I asked people.
....
Overall It wasn't that great, They both agree that the end of oil is coming they just argue over if it's going to be a serious event or not and when it will happen. _________________ shame on us, doomed from the start
god have mercy on our dirty little hearts
Posted: Wed May 10, 2006 8:59 am Post subject: Re: Heads Up: Simmons Debate on CNBC Coming Up
I'll try a recap of what has been broadcast:
A look at trading in the pits: frenzied. Hand signals, buy/sell cards being whipped down to guys wearing goggles, etc. Was used as an example to those who think that prices are somehow 'fixed' as an example of a wild, but free market...
Ok, debate's on now:
Ron Bailey, writer for Reason magazine, which just has a cover story on peak oil.
Simmons: When you look at the data, it's alarming. 2/3 of producers in irreversible decline. Not temporary, US peaked in 1970
Bailey: 'Sturn und Drang' Oil IS finite, and we will one day run out. But we won't peak iuntil 2030 or later. I didn't talk to economists, but engineers. ExXON 3TR barrels avail. USGS 2T, Technology will provide solutions...
SImmons: Oil data very 'spongy'. We've used up most of the good oil, rest is very low quality. Economic theory is great, but 'I think' is a religious term, should prepare for what happens when 'I think' doesn't come true...
Bailey: Oil data has always been underestimated. Why is it going to happen on the 8th or 9th iteration.
Simmons: Example of Shell writedown...
SImmons: 1979 Saudi said they had 110B barrels left.
Bailey: 1990 price of oil was $10/b. No one had incentive to look for oil.
Host: All agree oil is finite resource. How much longer willl we have to wait to do something?
Bailey: Price of oil now is a signal to the 'technologists' to do something. Period of time to figure out something. Not like running out of gas in your car, where it just stops. We will have time, a generation or two to do something,.
Posted: Wed May 10, 2006 9:04 am Post subject: Re: Heads Up: Simmons Debate on CNBC Coming Up
More info:
Earlier they showed the trading board when the the inventory data came out. It was interesting that crude oil numbers, gasoline, distellates, and heating oil data was actually put on the board immediately.
Guys in coats got in the way, and one trader got very excited on camera, yelling and screaming (much like you would see if a reporter was at a football game) and had to be pulled aside..ha ha..
But back on topic: I find it interesting that even though the data showed builds across the board, crude is still relatively unchanged...
Perhaps the Iran tension is not allowing the market to move much. Or the crude build was so weak...ideas?
Posted: Wed May 10, 2006 10:53 am Post subject: Re: Heads Up: Simmons Debate on CNBC Coming Up
Thanks for the information. It's good Simmons was there to say even a few words even if the so called "debate" didn't last very long.
Peak oil information going to have to be repeated, repeated, repeated publically and privately for the public to face it. and even then if it doesn't impact daily life for most of us, it won't be relevant.
Gas prices or heating/cooling bills are the best way to get attention. _________________ There is no where to go but Earth!
Except for space ......
Posted: Wed May 10, 2006 1:37 pm Post subject: Re: Heads Up: Simmons Debate on CNBC Coming Up
bonjaski wrote:
a few months ago we were running out of oil,
now only of "good oil"
my message to Simmons:
take your alzheimer brain and go home !
I guess the implication here is that you are young and smart and Simmons is what? old and dumb? okay then why don't you act smart and tell us exactly what is going to happen in a few months. _________________ ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap
Joined: Apr 13, 2005 Posts: 3162 Location: St.Louis, Mo
Posted: Wed May 10, 2006 1:41 pm Post subject: Re: Heads Up: Simmons Debate on CNBC Coming Up
bonjaski wrote:
a few months ago we were running out of oil,
now only of "good oil"
my message to Simmons:
take your alzheimer brain and go home !
You aren't the sharpest knife in the drawer, are you ? Peak oil has nothing to do with ' running out ' of oil. We will never run out of oil. Peak oil is when the earth has peaked, or hit a plateau of oil production, and no matter how hard you try, you cant produce any more oil. The US peaked in 1970 at about 10 mbpd, and now produces around 4 mbpd. The world is following this same pattern.
Posted: Wed May 10, 2006 1:42 pm Post subject: Re: Heads Up: Simmons Debate on CNBC Coming Up
Bonjanski,
Would you be so kind as to provide proof of Simmon's saying we are quote 'running out' unqote of oil? I specifically challenge you to do this.
And before you start in on ad hominem attacks on me (besides Mr. Simmons) you should realize that I find it exciting debunking an ignorant point or searching for the truth, whatever it may be.
And, In fact, I seem to recall a Simmons making the point that 'oil will never run out' on this very show...
I also find it interesting how you try to frame the issue. If you agree that oil is a finite resource, as all involved in this 'debate' did (Simmons, Bailey, and the host even), then you should conclude that oil started 'running out' the moment humans started using it. The key is maximal productive capacity, and as it relates to the net benefits of doing so. If the 'first half' is the 'easy to get' oil, and the 'last half' isn't, then that's a problem.
So, would you like me to get the transcript when it is available or would you like to admit your mistake now?
I find your attempt at 'argument' not only ignorant, but superbly impotent as well.
Joined: Mar 18, 2006 Posts: 1259 Location: Off with the Fey Folk
Posted: Wed May 10, 2006 3:06 pm Post subject: Re: Heads Up: Simmons Debate on CNBC Coming Up
OilsNotWell wrote:
Bonjanski,
Would you be so kind as to provide proof of Simmon's saying we are quote 'running out' unqote of oil? I specifically challenge you to do this.
Hi,
Sorry if I'm not 'Bonjanski' but if I remember my economics lecturer at college WRT resources - he told our '86 class that 'un-economic mineral recources become more economic to extract as the economy grows'.
So the way I'm thinking now... If the global economy is under-pinned by cheap Oil, and then the same stuff suddenly becomes more expensive to extract, then, regardless of how much is ultimately 'there', it can't be done. QED.
Go to Matt's work and there is proof IMHO that the cheep stuff is certainly (soon) gone. Me myself, I just wish I'd paid more attention in class.
I also think this issue right now needs brains, not opinions. Matt has a brain, and IMHO he is worth listening to. If you can present a counter-case, I will of-course listen.
Posted: Wed May 10, 2006 4:16 pm Post subject: Re: Heads Up: Simmons Debate on CNBC Coming Up
JPL wrote:
...if I remember my economics lecturer at college WRT resources - he told our '86 class that 'un-economic mineral recources become more economic to extract as the economy grows'.
Not aiming this at you specifically JPL, but there's something that bothers me every time I hear this particular argument. If a certain resource is "un-economic" to exploit, it is presumeably because the energy expense to do so is high enough that a reasonable return cannot be had. Granted that certain technological improvements might make it feasible to eventually exploit said resource at a profit, at least for a time, most likely due to efficiency gains reducing the energy consumption involved. But if the cost of energy is rising due to increasing supply constraints, then how the hell is it going to "become more economic" to exploit these currently "un-economic" resources in the future?
I think a lot of people miss this point... _________________ "It means buckle your seatbelt, Dorothy, because Kansas? Is goin' bye-bye... "
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum
News
Discussions
Resources
Members
Forum FAQ
Search
Usergroups
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap 
