ME oil supplies precarious after 2008?

SoothSayer

... Mr. Cheney's visit to Central Asia was based on the assessment of the U.S. intelligence community that Middle East oil supplies will become increasingly precarious after 2008.

See Link

So what do the security services know that we don't???
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Novus · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Jun 21, 2005 Posts: 1741

Cheney was briefed by Mattew Simmons in 1999 that the Saudis were lying about their reserves and that they had most likely already peaked. Cheney could ordered the CIA to spy on the saudis to confirm what Simmons had told him. It looks as if Simmons appears to be correct.

SoothSayer

Very interesting response Novus.

Could it be anything else? Upcoming political strife?
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ohanian · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Oct 17, 2004 Posts: 1143

Torion · Tar Sands Joined: May 09, 2005 Posts: 34

2008 ...? 2008? Somewhere along the line in my reading about peak oil I've come across the date 2008 and the CIA warning that after that date--after 2007 or sometime in 2008--there would be a big problem with supplying the various oil users with the right amount of oil.

I'd be interested in hearing anyone else's comments about this.
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Raxozanne

I believe that 2008 was the original date penned by ODAC after which the gap between supply and demand would really start to widen. Then Chris came out with a new report a few months ago stating that 2010 is the year instead.
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Ibon

The ASPO meeting last November in Denver had a number of speakers who were confirming a plateau of pricing between $55-70 per barrel until 2008 and 2009 when a strong spike upwards was forecasted as a result of supply problems. This was assuming no supply disruptions beforehand from hurricanes or terrorist attacks.

It's hard to tell if everyone is quoting the same source or study or if this assesment is coming from independent sources?

Torion · Tar Sands Joined: May 09, 2005 Posts: 34

Thanks for the replies.

First, I think I read about the CIA and the 2008 warning at www.fromthewilderness.com about 6 months ago.

Second, I did read that Chris Skrewboski (?) and the ODAC said 2008 for while. I idnt know that date had changed to the 2010.

third, I seem to recall someone, I thought it was either Chris Skrewboski or Kjell Aleklett(?) saying in the past year that we had about 30-36 months of business as usual before we really got in trouble. About the time I read that, I figured out when that would be and it was June-July of 2008.
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strider3700

Someone pointed out awhile ago that china was going to do their best to keep things moving along nicely until the 2008 olympics. After that all bets where off.
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Carrie

Um, so whatever happened to these supposed megaprojects that were going to boost supply around this time period?

Doly · Expert Joined: Dec 03, 2004 Posts: 4040

Battle_Scarred_Galactico · Intermediate Crude Joined: Apr 07, 2005 Posts: 970

They're not exactly a farking beacon of stability now. I dread to think what it'll be like in '08.

Nice find though, if even Cheney is now admitting this it's a big step.
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