Posted: Sun May 21, 2006 3:39 am Post subject: Re: Oil, Gold, Copper will all fall this week.
Going long means you buy a share at $1 today because you believe that it will have a value of $2 tomorrow.
Going short means you selling a share (your share) at $1 today because you believe that it will have a value of $0.50 tomorrow. Or if you are a true believer, sell your friend's share at $1 today because you believe that it will have a value of $0.50 tomorrow. The price of share had better be less than $1 tomorrow or your friend will be VERY VERY ANGRY
Joined: Dec 07, 2005 Posts: 1855 Location: Australia
Posted: Sun May 21, 2006 5:59 am Post subject: Re: Oil, Gold, Copper will all fall this week.
Quote:
What I have no clue about is the type of trading you're talking about, e.g., "long", "short", funds, mining stocks, etc. I don't even know how you go about buying such a thing or keeping up with it, except for kitco.com and a few other links I've found, where they speak whatever foreign language y'all are using.
Not to worry. Your in physical and that is the most important.
The other methods are based on paper trades ot paper that can be converted into gold (i.e. taking delivery of the actual gold on futures contract.) This is more for active traders.
Long basically meaning buying. i.e. you buy 10Oz gold means you are 10Oz long.
Short is selling, normally with the intention of buying back at lower price later. The gold cartel that is mentioned has naked shorts (they have sold something they don't have but have borrowed) of approx 10,000tons gold.
Easiest way to trade such deals is with CFd's or futures.
The reason why this is for more active traders is because they usually involve leverage. i.e. I put in $1000 as down payment and get to borrow $9000. If however my trade starts to move against me, I need to top up my margin. So a close eye on the market is necessary.
i.e. Fri. I was expecting a 'bear squeeze' where the big players know that the 'gold cartel' group is in deep loss and and force them to cover (close off the short deals) and further drive up the price. Instead they surprised by totally bombing down the market by selling even more. (This time it made sense as others followed suit and they were able to buy back at a lower price later that day)
As I had tight stop losses my long trades got automatically sold off early, so I don't get problems with margin. The physical I just sit on. May perhaps go out and buy some more ina day or so if the market shows signs of recovery.
Hope this was of some help.
To read more about the gold price surpression scheme visit www.gata.org and check out their archive + the credit agricole report.
Posted: Sun May 21, 2006 6:59 am Post subject: Re: Oil, Gold, Copper will all fall this week.
I'm going to put a punt on for next week, I'm hardly certain of this next move, but I have a feeling these are going to drop lower again by the end of the week.
GOLD will close under $640, Copper Under $3, Silver under $11, Oil under $65.
So, how to play this, buy bullion anytime, be careful with stocks and if you really want to buy try to offer lower than the market is offering hoping it to be filled, don't do any 1:100 CFD margins on gold or something similar. This corrective cycle could last for quite along time, we underestimated the gold Bull, then we overestimated the gold bull in the last 2 weeks, do not underestimate the gold bear then overestimate it at the end. What will probably happen is everyone will underestimate it then overestimate it. To get a good time in to buy, remember gold when it hit $730 and then more than ever you wanted to buy gold, try to do the opposite of that in this bear cycle, when you feel, OMG I gota sell everything, BUY. I would not be suprised for this market to head below $600, maybe $550 before recovering. _________________
Man's like a candle in a candlestick,
Made up of tallow and a little wick;
Posted: Sun May 21, 2006 9:40 am Post subject: Re: Oil, Gold, Copper will all fall this week.
Crazy cycle. I picked a top of $750 due to the speed with which it broke $700, I knew alot of late comers were going to dive in, however, I was wrong when it began its descent from $730. I was a day late on my position, cause I knew when it was gonna pop, it was gonna pop in a big way! I am guessing a low of $600 and it will settle around $620 and hover between $610 and $650 until 2007. I just had a silly thought! Since we have every etf imaginable (oil,gold,silver, etc), why don't they have one for interest rates so we don't have to run out and get bonds Probably already exists.
He's looking at the consolidation of gold over the month, between $630 and $660.
I liked how so many stocks went up on Friday despite bullion's additional drop in price. Isn't that an indication that the stocks were already oversold in anticipation of a more drastic rout in the metal commodities? I'd better quickly get my last paycheck into my RRSP incase things start taking a turn back up, before long.
I had a dream about copper going under $1... I woke up depressed.
Posted: Sun May 21, 2006 4:04 pm Post subject: Re: Oil, Gold, Copper will all fall this week.
i think of gold & silver as an anti-depressant - if you own some, when the dollar falls, usually gold & silver go up. sort of takes the sting out of watching your own national currency lose its value.
the week ending may 19, i was buying silver at a store in San Diego. i feel that the information that can be obtained in a respectful conversation with the store owners is just as or almost as valuable as the gold and silver itself.
i think gold and silver fell big-time on wednesday, then continued falling on thursday & friday. i was buying on thursday.
when i called the store, i was lined up for a 100 oz. silver bar. by the time i got to the store, prices had fallen so much that the guy didn't want to sell, because he would have lost money, understandable.
apparently there was an audit/ investigation of some of the biggest dealers in a major american city, and this made the markets nervous. spot prices fell, and the uncertainty led a lot of retail dealers to increase the spread between their buy & sell prices.
as long as the blob of protoplasm in the White House is pursuing the current fiscal policies, running up the deficit, the U.S. dollar is destined to fall in value. continuing to make precious metals a safe haven, with the caveat that the US government could seize gold bullion, which i think includes the American Eagle gold coin.
having recently worked for a major defense electronics contractor, i can say that vintage 2006 electronics uses very little gold. (compared to HP computers from, say, the mid-80's. my God, full of gold-plated circuit boards !) during World War 2, strangely, silver was diverted to coinage (nickel coins), and copper was precious (hence the steel pennies in 1943 i think).
in terms of rationale's for seizing gold, i don't think the US government could say it needs gold as a contruction material for military hardware.
i wonder what their stated reasons would be if they did seize gold. _________________ http://www.LASIK-Flap.com/ ~ Health Warning about LASIK Eye Surgery
Joined: Aug 14, 2005 Posts: 382 Location: Mississippi Delta
Posted: Sun May 21, 2006 9:24 pm Post subject: Re: Oil, Gold, Copper will all fall this week.
Thanks for the advice, all, esp greenworm and Marklar. Investopedia looks very promising, now to do my homework.
On the govt confiscation question, I have thought this through, and from what I've read, when gold was called in in the 30s it did not include jewelry and art. Presumably this would be the case in the future, and I have a workbench and a ball-peen hammer. I can turn any metal into art real fast.
Posted: Mon May 22, 2006 8:41 am Post subject: Re: Oil, Gold, Copper will all fall this week.
Your Welcome! I highly doubt that the gov't is gonna take your gold, they are lucky enough we let them steal our money in taxes. Guess what I have planned this weekend. I live in a somewhat mountainous area with many a river bed. I watched some treasure hunting show on the television and I am dying to try it. I won't get anything, but since I don't have much to do, I figure, what the hell, they gave certain clues concerning where to look in terms of soil color.
Joined: Feb 18, 2006 Posts: 366 Location: Minnesota, U.S.A.
Posted: Mon May 22, 2006 4:36 pm Post subject: Re: Oil, Gold, Copper will all fall this week.
pedalling_faster wrote:
i think of gold & silver as an anti-depressant...
...information that can be obtained in a respectful conversation with the store owners is just as or almost as valuable as the gold and silver itself...
in terms of rationale's for seizing gold, i don't think the US government could say it needs gold as a contruction material for military hardware...
i wonder what their stated reasons would be if they did seize gold.
Money hoarding (to include gold) was hurting the economy in a big way during the depression. Chronic Deflation meant that all you had to do was sit on your cash and watch its value grow, so more people did it and this exacerbated the problem even further.
Was there any kind of reimbursement when they confiscated the gold or was it just taken?
I would rather not liken my precious metals to any psychotropic substance, thanks.
I call it "cashing in on other peoples fear". _________________ "He who makes no mistakes isn't trying hard enough" Genghis Khan
"Everyone here is bribed not to kill each other." foodnotlawns
Coinflation.com
Joined: Aug 14, 2005 Posts: 382 Location: Mississippi Delta
Posted: Mon May 22, 2006 11:59 pm Post subject: Re: Oil, Gold, Copper will all fall this week.
Quote:
Was there any kind of reimbursement when they confiscated the gold or was it just taken?
Here is my understanding, someone might have better info. The (approx) one ounce coin at the time was the $20 double eagle. There were other coins in different denominations, but they were roughly proportional. The exchange rate between Au and Ag was set at something like 17:1. This pretty well matched the $20 coin with the silver dollar. The gov't required everyone to turn in their Au coins for face value. So you got $20 in paper dollars for your double eagle, or I suppose you could have taken or changed them to silver dollars. But shortly after that, the dollar was pegged to $35/ounce. This of course, was a big loss for those that turned in their dollars. (People had been allowed to keep coins amounting to a few ounces.) It wasn't till the Nixon admin that the dollar was allowed to float so that it quickly became quite a bit lower than $35/ounce.
Joined: Dec 25, 2004 Posts: 446 Location: Salem, MA
Posted: Tue May 23, 2006 8:37 am Post subject: Re: Oil, Gold, Copper will all fall this week.
be sure to look into the Bretton Woods agreement and Kissinger's involvement in the Yom Kippur War if you're looking at the history of the dollar's relationship to gold...
seems that precious metals are up by a few percent already today... _________________ UNLESS
Posted: Tue May 23, 2006 9:58 am Post subject: Re: Oil, Gold, Copper will all fall this week.
Plays your bets: reversal at $670 or will it reach for the sky?
Kissinger is one evil bastard, Nixon wasn't called tricky dick for nothing, he tricked everyone to use the $, you wonder if they have a plan B when no one wants the $ no longer, hmm.
Posted: Tue May 23, 2006 10:14 am Post subject: Re: Oil, Gold, Copper will all fall this week.
Oil has gone up, it's 71.55 last time I looked, thats bullish for gold. _________________
Man's like a candle in a candlestick,
Made up of tallow and a little wick;
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