We cannot drill our way out of this oil crisis. Since 2000, oil companies working in the U.S. have doubled the number of wells drilled per year.
Although increased drilling has added new oil to the nation's supply, it has not done so fast enough to offset the terminal decline of existing fields.
We are going to have to import more of our oil. Period.
Posted: Wed Mar 01, 2006 10:26 am Post subject: Re: Coal - What are the ramifications?
I totally agree that we will use every source of energy possible and we will power down only because resource scarcity.
If you guys look at EIA projections, they are hoping for huge coal liquification plants to be built in the next 20 years.
On a side note:
They also think US will be forced to reduce consumption of crude oil. US crude oil consumption will plateau. US drivers will be forced to drive fuel efficient cars like hybrids and alternative fuels.
I have no idea how they plan this to happen without constant rising oil prices.
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3277 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Sun Apr 16, 2006 3:39 am Post subject: Re: Coal - What are the ramifications?
nth wrote:
I totally agree that we will use every source of energy possible and we will power down only because resource scarcity.
If you guys look at EIA projections, they are hoping for huge coal liquification plants to be built in the next 20 years.
On a side note:
They also think US will be forced to reduce consumption of crude oil. US crude oil consumption will plateau. US drivers will be forced to drive fuel efficient cars like hybrids and alternative fuels.
I have no idea how they plan this to happen without constant rising oil prices.
Here is the latest wrinkle on coal liquifaction, someone posted it to another list I use and it is quite....inspired.....in denying reality.
Coal-to-diesel Breakthrough Could Drastically Cut Oil Imports
Professor Alan Goldman and his Rutgers team in collaboration with researchers at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill have developed a way to convert carbon sources, such as coal to diesel fuel.
_________________ Oxygen: - An intensely habit-forming accumulative toxic substance. As little
as one breath is known to produce a life-long addiction to the gas, which addiction invariably ends in death.--Isaac Asimov
Joined: Mar 28, 2005 Posts: 399 Location: Northern California, USA
Posted: Fri Apr 21, 2006 12:48 am Post subject: Re: Coal - What are the ramifications?
nethawk wrote:
There's no doubt that CO2 emissions need to be cut - dramatically. This is going to limit coal's use, unless a really good way to store carbon is developed.
This reminds me of someone who has been dragged underwater by an alligator, has broken free, is about to drown and is swimming to shore and there's a park ranger on shore saying he's going to shoot the guy unless he gets his swimming trunks back from the alligator that were ripped off during the attack.
Really everybody, CTL is the only thing that's going to work on a big enough scale to do anything about peak oil. It will be done whether you like it or not. Whether it contributes to global warming or not. It will be done everywhere and in every country that there is coal available and capable engineers and capital. Countries that are unable to do it, and that do not have large domestic oil supplies, will live off the scraps and/or experience severe famines and population decline.
To Illustrate my point, I saw a diplomat from India on "UN World Chronicle" (Produced by the U.N as a public affairs program, shown on the International Channel Late At Night). He was asked why China and India would not have to reduce carbon emissions under the terms of the Kyoto protocol. He said that it was because the west had benefited so long from industrialization that India and China deserved the right to increase their fossil fuel consumption.
Really guys on an international level abandoning CTL because of carbon emissions is just saying we're too guilty to go on living and leaving people with less propensity for self-loathing to inherit the earth. Of course that's a fantasy and is not going to happen and the economics are just to massive to do anything about. The growing economic tidal wave behind CTL adoption is too great for a bunch of arm-chair doomers to prevent.
Most of you guys are not interested in actually fixing the problems of peak oil but in welcoming in an eco-wonderland where somehow you're the last one left in the lifeboat living in an organic framing utopia. Meanwhile if some politicians get elected who think that we can run this whole thing with only biodiesel and coal should be relegated to history, you'll probably wind up 15 years from now not very far from where you are now, alone, starving to death. It was a good fantasy at least but hey, the Mayans though if they just sacrified more people the crops would grow too.
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3277 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Fri Apr 21, 2006 4:55 pm Post subject: Re: Coal - What are the ramifications?
Interesting news out of Texas, now that Natural Gas costs too much to burn in large central power plants they want to replace it with 10 large coal fired electric plants in central Texas. Ludi have you heard anything about this?
TXU proposes to build three coal-fired electric generating plants in McLennan County as part of a $10 billion plan to make electric power more reliable and affordable in Texas, the company announced Thursday.
The Dallas-based company confirmed that it will seek to replace the plants at Tradinghouse Creek Reservoir and Lake Creek Lake — both east of Waco — with plants that generate electricity from coal hauled in from the Powder River Basin region of Wyoming.
The plants now operate on natural gas.
_________________ Oxygen: - An intensely habit-forming accumulative toxic substance. As little
as one breath is known to produce a life-long addiction to the gas, which addiction invariably ends in death.--Isaac Asimov
Posted: Sun Apr 23, 2006 5:21 am Post subject: Re: Coal - What are the ramifications?
Black coal rides in on its white horse (again).
Quote:
The real question that every citizen in this country should be asking themselves is; does a viable alternative exist to the traditional usage of oil?
The answer to this question is very simple and the answer is YES! Not only does an alternative exist but it has existed for decades. Not only has it existed for decades but the fuel burns practically pollution free. Not only does it burn practically pollution free but the cost is a roughly half of what we pay today. Not only does it cost about half of what we are paying today but the supply of this energy will last for at least three centuries.
You read it right;
1. Total independence on our own sources of energy;
2. Three centuries worth of reserves;
3. Half the cost;
4. Burns practically pollution free;
5. Billions upon billions of dollars staying at home;
6. Job creation;
7. Possible solution to easing of tensions amongst world powers as a result of easing the demand pressure on the supply of oil making it more affordable in greater quantities to those countries who have no alternative but to continue using the traditional source of energy;
Not that I think coal is Evil. We burn up to five tons of anthracite per year, in a house system that provides heat, all our hot water, and all our cooking. Anthracite permits us to be virtually non-electric. We do this not for the Superior Virtue of it (obviously), but as a CYA measure in case of power outages. _________________ "By the time individuals discover that remaining resources will not be adequate for the next generation, the next generation has already been born. " David Price
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 10793 Location: Village of Idiots
Posted: Sun Apr 23, 2006 5:30 am Post subject: Re: Coal - What are the ramifications?
Tanada wrote:
Interesting news out of Texas, now that Natural Gas costs too much to burn in large central power plants they want to replace it with 10 large coal fired electric plants in central Texas. Ludi have you heard anything about this?
Hadn't heard about it but it doesn't surprise me; I expect more coal plants to be built. Nasty stuff, but at this point Texans aren't especially worried about pollution or global warming, as far as I can tell. Texas is the biggest energy hog in the US. _________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow..." - jboogy
Posted: Tue May 23, 2006 9:09 pm Post subject: Re: Coal - What are the ramifications?
nth wrote:
If you guys look at EIA projections, they are hoping for huge coal liquification plants to be built in the next 20 years..
O Joy. I wonder how many plants they will need? Will they fit in my refrigerator?
nth wrote:
They also think US will be forced to reduce consumption of crude oil. .
Ya think?
nth wrote:
US crude oil consumption will plateau. US drivers will be forced to drive fuel efficient cars like hybrids and alternative fuels....
I have no idea how they plan this to happen without constant rising oil prices.
I thin rising oil prices will help a lot.
Coal it is, then.
All in favor say EyE!
You know that is the only possibility, once the alternatives make their money trying and failing. Lots of coal in our future.
Just one suggestion, lets build the coal power plants on the east coast and run the wires over here, the wind will take the smoke over to EUrope.
good thinking, eh? _________________ ___________________________
WHEN THE BLIND LEAD THE BLIND...GET OUT OF THE WAY!
Using evil to further good makes one evil
Doubt everything but the TRUTH
This posted information is not permissible to be used
by anyone who has ever met a lawyer
Joined: Dec 04, 2005 Posts: 186 Location: UK (Kent)
Posted: Wed May 24, 2006 4:51 pm Post subject: Re: Coal - What are the ramifications?
Tanada wrote:
The Russians were as wrong as you could get at Chernobyl, it serves as an excellent example of how badly things can go wrong with bad training, bad managment and poor safety systems in the design. And despite it being a worst case scenario wildlife is thriving throughout the area right up to the accident site and now 19 years later background radiation is well withing lifetime dose toleration limits. Oncological studies of the area have shown just what the real health physicists and nuclear medical specialists predicted, the fire and cleanup crew's are following established norms based on there dosage received and are suffering about a 10% increase in cancer rate, the poor kids whose parents were not warned took a heavy hit from radio-iodine in their milk supply in the first 6 weeks but are showing no other problems. The mythological birth defects never occured at a rate over average for the region and population.
Chernobyl was the last gasp of the anti-nuclear movement, it forced even the USSR to decide to stop using plants which did not have built in safety measure's like containment structures. If Chernobyl had had a proper western style containment building it would have killed about 20 people and cost a lot of money. Without containment it killed about 60, crippled about 600 kids, cost a lot of money, and caused a lot of panic and temporary dislocations. People are moving back into the chernobyl exclusion zone in droves because they do not feel any ill effects from the elevated radiation levels and statistically they will suffer for it, with about 1 excess cancer per MILLION people.
The mess from Chernobyl was bad, just 60 people seems too low seeing the inept and criminal way the soviet authorities handled it was the most amazing part.
This site has an account of it from someone in Ukraine - very unique view on it, her father was a nuclear physicist too which helped.
Things like not telling the local population what had happened until days later (they even let a scheduled labour day parade go on - insane). I remember seeing on tv one of the scientists who was involved with the cleanup mention about how a helicopter pilot who looked down into the reactor as he flew over had his chin kind of growing down his chest a week later - he died.
Anyway, more out of interest really, it does show as you say how the area is surprisingly habitable. But on the darker side there are checkpoints, and death areas of high radiation all over the show, especially inside houses.
Tanada wrote:
We only have to muddle through until the population peak in 2050, after that things will keep getting easier because there will be no extra mouths to feed every year.
The problem I see with this is we are facing the club of Romes limits to growth scenario here, our increased polution and destruction of habitat is lowering the carrying capacity in a depletion sort of way, on top of this the population experts predictions will not come true if areas fall back into poverty.
It looks like unless we get a real pandemic we are heading for some sort of die off scenario, although I expect only in certain areas.
Joined: May 02, 2006 Posts: 70 Location: UK (Unless I'm at sea)
Posted: Thu May 25, 2006 5:58 pm Post subject: Re: Coal - What are the ramifications?
Coal based power plants don't produce a great deal of carbon dioxide emissions, and should be cheaper to run than oil-burning power stations. But conversion to a transport network run on coal? Not likely, imho. Running coal power stations isn't as politically sensitive or environmentally damaging as nuclear, so I expect a few of our existing power stations will be replaced by coal. Then again, I saw on a news report that in fact coal power stations are about as costly to build (over a timescale that I don't recall) as wind farms, so there's a good chance we'll see a combination of both being built.
Posted: Thu May 25, 2006 7:19 pm Post subject: Re: Coal - What are the ramifications?
gigacannon wrote:
Coal based power plants don't produce a great deal of carbon dioxide emissions, and should be cheaper to run than oil-burning power stations.
They are the worse emitters!
95 kg CO2/GJ for coal
76kg CO2/GJ oil
58kg CO2/GJ NG _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Fri May 26, 2006 12:14 pm Post subject: Re: Coal - What are the ramifications?
And least Ye not forget the Radioactive elements released on us daily.
"Using these data, the releases of radioactive materials per typical plant can be calculated for any year. For the year 1982, assuming coal contains uranium and thorium concentrations of 1.3 ppm and 3.2 ppm, respectively, each typical plant released 5.2 tons of uranium (containing 74 pounds of uranium-235) and 12.8 tons of thorium that year. Total U.S. releases in 1982 (from 154 typical plants) amounted to 801 tons of uranium (containing 11,371 pounds of uranium-235) and 1971 tons of thorium. These figures account for only 74% of releases from combustion of coal from all sources. Releases in 1982 from worldwide combustion of 2800 million tons of coal totaled 3640 tons of uranium (containing 51,700 pounds of uranium-235) and 8960 tons of thorium."
The market can't provide if no one is investing. The most immediate problem we face is based entirely on money. Energy = money. Our current economy is based entirely on this relationship. We can have all the energy resources in the world available to us and if no one wants to invest they will not be developed. _________________ Civilization is a personal choice.
Posted: Tue Jul 25, 2006 8:33 pm Post subject: Re: Coal - What are the ramifications?
Great first thread to read as a member. I suscribe to the energy mosaic whereby oil. nat gas, coal, biodeisel/biomass plus either solar, nuclear, or wind will all be niched into our supply requirements by market forces with only personal cars as a hole in the supply after 2050. I have done the math and think I am right if it natural gas which is significantly underestimated even at the potential reserve level is channeled to residential electricity and heating, along with coal for the former. so cheer up all you anarchists
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