I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2004 11:49 pm Post subject: Bush wins - interesting times ahead
Congratulations to George W. Bush, who will now continue his role as POTUS, the President Of The United States.
The Americans can heave a sigh of relief that the nasty campaigning is over. The corporations who have the full rights of persons, but none of the mortality, will be happy; they will be able to continue with their plans of "growth", which is nothing but an increase in the pace of depletion of the world's resources. After all, the Dow Jones went up convincingly over 10,000 on the news. The thinking persons, those who are left, that is, are a little puzzled but in time they will understand. Continuation is what the Americans wanted - their right, if you can call it that, to continue to use 25% of the world's oil production while having only 5% of the world's population. The American Dream is, indeed, not negotiable - in fact, in all likelihood it has never been.
We will see more of the same. More attacks on countries (un)fortunate enough to be endowed by Nature (or the Universe, or God, or Allah - whichever your beliefs) with vast reserves of the prized crude oil that the industrialized world requires to keep their economies going. The American Dream is not negotiable, but it requires enormous quantities of the black stuff. Your leaders will now continue to get it for you; after all, that is exactly what you voted them in for. Security was asked for, continuation was asked for - they will now do their very best to fulfill your wishes, even if the majority of you do not put it in so many words.
Ominously, however, if continuation is the keyword of the day, then it will be the same for those who would oppose the Americans. The terrorists' jihad will continue. They who will do America harm, they who have brought down the Twin Towers, will doubtless be planning the next attacks.
And on the other major powers? We will see continued consolidation. The EU has put up their own Constitution, an emerging "United States of Europe" may not be too far-fetched an idea any more. Russia might join in their game - after all, it's a much shorter distance from producer (Russian fields) to consumer (EU economies) for them.
The inscrutable Chinese will likely not sit by and do nothing either - after all, their citizens, too, want more of the same. More "growth", more "progress", more "things" - homes, cars, and the myriad other things that make up an existence in the "modern" industrialized world. The Chinese will want their Chinese Dream too, just as the Americans want their American Dream. Elected or not - their leaders, too, will do their best to get it for them - witness the Iran-China oil deal.
The American Dream, the European Dream, the Chinese Dream. Let's not forget the Indians, and the Muslims, too. (And as a very small sidenote in the annals of history, the Singapore Dream, also.) After all, it's only human to dream. The fun really begins when you realize that your Dream and that of others rests on the same, inadequate resources, and that to achieve your Dream, somebody else will have to give up theirs. And nobody in their right mind will give up on their Dream too easily. It's only human, after all.
While looking at a house, my brother asked the real estate agent which direction was north because, he explained, he didn't want the sun waking him up every morning. She asked, "Does the sun rise in the North?"
When another person jumped in and explained that the sun rises in the East (and has for some time), she shook her head and said, "Oh, I don't keep up with that stuff."
America is becoming a dysfunctioning democracy. It is captive to corporate and other vested interests. It is crippled by political partisanship that has all but eroded the common good. It is in the grip of a dangerous patriotism, fuelled by faith, militarism and a moral superiority that assigns little or no value to the rest of humanity. [comment: see the Dream passage above]
Bush and John Kerry have had to raise $1.2 billion (all figures U.S.) for their campaigns. Lobbyists paid for the Republican and Democratic conventions, at $100 million each. Most of the $3.9 billion cost of the various federal elections this year, including the congressional races, is borne by private interests. With so much indebtedness to so many, no party and no elected official can ever be independent.
... only half the electorate votes, though there are hopeful signs of a greater turnout this time. Many don't seem to know how to cast their ballots. Can't vote, can't count. That's what the U.S. electoral process looks like to a bemused world. [comment: see "And Then They Voted"]
... Iraq, too, tells a lot about America - far more than it tells us about Bush's bad judgment and deceptions. It is about the American war machine killing innocent Iraqis - not 15,000 or 20,000, as we had thought, but 100,000, as estimated by the John Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and Lancet, the London-based medical journal. It is about torture and other human rights violations committed at home and abroad. It is about the criminal incompetence of the American political and military machinery, which snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
All these shortcomings cannot possibly be all Bush's fault.
In a way, America has returned to the insecurity of the 1950s, when it felt threatened by Moscow, Stein said. Now, the enemy doesn't even have an address ...
"Once global oil peaks, and we need to start pumping Saddam's oil, I expect Americans to invade and occupy Iraq. Moreover, profits will flow to friends of George Bush - not some wild-eyed, gun-waving crackpot like Saddam. Obviously, once oil production peaks in a couple of years, the public will throw their total support behind an invasion of Iraq."
Before I begin, I say to you that security is an indispensable pillar of human life and that free men do not forfeit their security, contrary to Bush's claim that we hate freedom ... I am amazed at you. Even though we are in the fourth year after the events of September 11th, Bush is still engaged in distortion, deception and hiding from you the real causes. And thus, the reasons are still there for a repeat of what occurred ...
So with these images and their like as their background, the events of September 11th came as a reply to those great wrongs, should a man be blamed for defending his sanctuary? Is defending oneself and punishing the aggressor in kind, objectionable terrorism? If it is such, then it is unavoidable for us.
... this is in addition to our having experience in using guerrilla warfare and the war of attrition to fight tyrannical superpowers, as we, alongside the mujahidin, bled Russia for 10 years, until it went bankrupt and was forced to withdraw in defeat ... so we are continuing this policy in bleeding America to the point of bankruptcy. Allah willing, and nothing is too great for Allah ...
... and it was to these sorts of notions and their like that the British diplomat and others were referring in their lectures at the Royal Institute of International Affairs. [When they pointed out that] for example, al-Qaida spent $500,000 on the event, while America, in the incident and its aftermath, lost - according to the lowest estimate - more than $500 billion. Meaning that every dollar of al-Qaida defeated a million dollars by the permission of Allah, besides the loss of a huge number of jobs.
... it is true that this shows that al-Qaida has gained, but on the other hand, it shows that the Bush administration has also gained, something of which anyone who looks at the size of the contracts acquired by the shady Bush administration-linked mega-corporations, like Halliburton and its kind, will be convinced. And it all shows that the real loser is ... you.
It is the American people and their economy.
... as has been said: "An ounce of prevention is better than a pound of cure." And know that: "It is better to return to the truth than persist in error."
In conclusion, I tell you in truth, that your security is not in the hands of Kerry, nor Bush, nor al-Qaida. No. [i]Your security is in your own hands. And every state that doesn't play with our security has automatically guaranteed its own security ... and Allah is our Guardian and Helper, while you have no Guardian or Helper. All peace be upon he who follows the Guidance.
Many years ago, Soviet planners gave up trying to match the US Navy ship for ship, gun for gun, and dollar for dollar. The Soviets simply could not compete with the high levels of US spending required to build up and maintain a huge naval armada. They shrewdly adopted an alternative approach based on strategic defense. They searched for weaknesses, and sought relatively inexpensive ways to exploit those weaknesses. The Soviets succeeded: by developing several supersonic anti-ship missiles, one of which, the SS-N-22 Sunburn, has been called "the most lethal missile in the world today."
... a decision was made to resuscitate selected programs, and, very soon, Russian missile technology became a hot export commodity. Today, Russian missiles are a growth industry generating much-needed cash for Russia, with many billions in combined sales to India, China, Viet Nam, Cuba, and also Iran. In the near future this dissemination of advanced technology is likely to present serious challenges to the US ...
The Sunburn can deliver a 200-kiloton nuclear payload, or: a 750-pound conventional warhead, within a range of 100 miles, more than twice the range of the Exocet. The Sunburn combines a Mach 2.1 speed (two times the speed of sound) with a flight pattern that hugs the deck and includes "violent end maneuvers" to elude enemy defenses. The missile was specifically designed to defeat the US Aegis radar defense system. Should a US Navy Phalanx point defense somehow manage to detect an incoming Sunburn missile, the system has only seconds to calculate a fire solution not enough time to take out the intruding missile. The US Phalanx defense employs a six-barreled gun that fires 3,000 depleted-uranium rounds a minute, but the gun must have precise coordinates to destroy an intruder "just in time."
The US Navy's only plausible defense against a robust weapon like the Sunburn missile is to detect the enemy's approach well ahead of time, whether destroyers, subs, or fighter-bombers, and defeat them before they can get in range and launch their deadly cargo. For this purpose US AWACs radar planes assigned to each naval battle group are kept aloft on a rotating schedule. The planes "see" everything within two hundred miles of the fleet, and are complemented with intelligence from orbiting satellites.
No one disputes that Tehran is pursuing a dangerous path, but with 200 or more Israeli nukes targeted upon them the Iranians' insistence on keeping their options open is understandable. Clearly, the nuclear nonproliferation regime today hangs by the slenderest of threads. The world has arrived at a fateful crossroads.
great post I like the part you mentioned about dreaming, because determine the future, who dreams up the next gameplan to obtain resources. 9/11 and Iraq was the first one, it will be intersting to see what our governments dream up next. Lets enjoy these times of peace and for thanksgiving this year thank god for the change to experiance the age of oil - the peak of human civilization. I agree all the US cares about is keeping things going for as long as possible, which will result in a hard landing, instead of focusing on how to make things easier in the future, and make a soft landing possible. With the current Bush administration, you can expect the waste of the last remaining oil and a also a bloodbath for them, our greed will also lead to our fate. Soft landing for the US? Seems almost impossible now.. war and depression are all to be expected.
Joined: Sep 30, 2004 Posts: 975 Location: On one of the blades of the fan
Posted: Thu Nov 04, 2004 3:36 am Post subject: Great post
I agree - excellent post.
It is always interesting to read the full pronouncements of Osama, where he comes across as a rational leader fighting a war. I do not like his position at all, but "know thine enemy" is the first step. It is quite clear that a political settlement in the Middle East is the only productive way forward.
But let's rain bombs on people insead, and see how they respond. That's surely the way to their hearts and minds!
Nicely done, if I may add. With the average insular American (my understanding is that 90% of Americans do not possess a passport), you would not expect anything less (more).
A side note on Saudi Arabia (based on Matt Simmons data). The per capita GDP 30 years back was closer to USD20,000. It is less than USD5,000 now. You can imagine why Osama can find so many willing recruits.
Joined: Oct 18, 2004 Posts: 266 Location: San Francisco, CA
Posted: Thu Nov 04, 2004 2:20 pm Post subject: Re: Great post
julianj wrote:
I agree - excellent post.
It is always interesting to read the full pronouncements of Osama, where he comes across as a rational leader fighting a war. I do not like his position at all, but "know thine enemy" is the first step.
When I read his speech, my first thought was that that world is in a sad state when the most wanted criminal in the world, a homocidal extremist, speaks with greater honesty and eloquence than the "leader of the free world".
Joined: Sep 18, 2004 Posts: 252 Location: East Malaysia
Posted: Fri Nov 05, 2004 2:28 am Post subject:
More fireworks to come in Persian Gulf. May you live in interesting time. Malaysia may cut water supply to Singapore you know. And yes no eggs for Singapore.
Quote:
The C.801 anti-ship cruise missile is a Chinese version of the popular French made EXOCET anti-ship cruise missile. Despite its somewhat larger size, the C.801 has about the same specifications and performance of the Exocet. Recent reports indicate the SARDINE has been upgraded with GPS navigation systems supplied by ROCKWELL.
The C.802 is a modified version of the C.801 with similar capability and accuracy to the U.S. Harpoon missile. The C.802 utilizes an air breathing turbojet to extend its range while keeping the warhead, airframe and avionics from the C.801.
That (cutting the water supply) is tantamount to declaring war on S'pore. Does Malaysia have any plans to win the war after declaring it? For example, send the MAF to take out the RSAF? Lob some artillery to soften the targets in the South. Mass your army along Johor border? If it were only that simple.
Joined: Sep 18, 2004 Posts: 252 Location: East Malaysia
Posted: Wed Nov 10, 2004 2:45 am Post subject: Oh never mind.
PK.
If one day Canada cut off natural gas to United States of America due to increasing national gas demand and freezing winter and peak gas , will America declared war on Canada ? Will the Canadian freeze in their own house while the gas went to heat American's house. It is our gas you know..
Same problem here in Malaysia. If one day water shortage occurs in Malaysia, will the water be diverted to Singapore while Malaysian died in droves lying besides those pipes carrying precious untreated water to Singapore. The answer is same as will you sell your clothes if you had nothing else to wear.
So deal with reality or reality deals with you. War is another way to stay focus on common fear and enemy. By that time , Malaysia may faced internal problems. The best way to stay united is to focus the citizens on external enemies. What a big bonanza if Singapore attacked and occupied South Malaysia due to sabotaged water pipes that cut off the water supply to Singapore.
The whole nation will be united against a damned Singapore that is helped by United States. As US is involved ,a regional jihad war can be declared against Singapore with the assistance of 200++ millions Indonesian . It is not a pretty sight but at least we are united against a common enemy instead of fighting among ourselves.
In the real world it is not so straightforward. "Ninjas" will sabotaged water pipes and try to provoke war among nations. If Singapore declared war just because of water shortages, it will be seen as the "terrorist nation".
So interesting times ahead for people live on 3rd rock from the sun.
You certainly did not mention a water shortage in your initial posting. If there is a water shortage, I guess the situation would be different. Such a situation is rather unlikely in the short term as most of the unused water from the Johor river just flows into the sea. As water treatment is done in S'pore, very little energy is used to pump the raw water over.
Similarly, if Canada cuts off their Natural Gas Supply to USA without giving due notice or without facing a shortage, it is war.
You seem to relish a confrontation for your countrymen. I don't. Many innocent lives would be lost.
Joined: Sep 18, 2004 Posts: 252 Location: East Malaysia
Posted: Wed Nov 10, 2004 9:44 pm Post subject:
I am not an advocate of war. But there are many generations of Malaysian who had worked in Singapore and they don't like Singaporean attitude towards Malaysian. Of course, they love the pay over there. After peak oil , guess what will happen to both countries in term of food production , economy and standard of living.
Never mind, both Malaysia and Singapore will be swarmed by refugees from Indonesia and Aceh and Southern Thailand. War will never happen between Malaysia and Singapore. You cannot declared war on refugees, can you ??
I am not an advocate of war. But there are many generations of Malaysian who had worked in Singapore and they don't like Singaporean attitude towards Malaysian ...
You know what, I don't like many of my fellow Singaporeans' attitudes either. My wife's from Malaysia
There's some ill-feeling from both sides, I know, but there is also a significant portion of the population who have family ties on "the other side". That applies for both the Malay and Chinese folks.
Hopefully it doesn't have to come to a war and they have to start issuing to me "my" personal M-16 assault rifle (with "full auto mode", and "free flow" of 30-round clips, for the gun aficionados here).
You can't very well go in and start shooting blindly, if you know that you've got relatives on the other side.
Sure, the "cut-off water leading to all-out war" scenario is all but an open secret, but only as a very, very, very last resort. Not that I'm 100% satisfied with my own government either, but they sure ain't crazy, if anything they're the pragmatic sort.
As long as there is something to gain from co-operation instead of conflict, it should in all likelihood remain that way. Malaysian citizens cross the Causeway south-bound to work in the factories and semicon fabs, Singapore citizens cross north-bound to shop and travel. Besides water, vegetables, poultry, eggs, and more go south-bound, and money goes the other way, supporting the agricultural industry, creating jobs.
The AMD64 chips I was talking about? They all have the stamp "Assembled in Malaysia". Since the prices have dropped recently, the consumers here have been snapping them up till the shops ran out.
It will take some kind of major trigger to "tip the balance", so to speak. _________________ Live quotes - crude oil, gold and currencies
http://www.post1.net/lowem/page/livequotes
Joined: Apr 17, 2004 Posts: 984 Location: Tulsa, Ok
Posted: Sat Nov 13, 2004 4:12 am Post subject: post
I didn't really like your post leading into this thread.
Quote:
In conclusion, I tell you in truth, that your security is not in the hands of Kerry, nor Bush, nor al-Qaida. No. [i]Your security is in your own hands. And every state that doesn't play with our security has automatically guaranteed its own security ... and Allah is our Guardian and Helper, while you have no Guardian or Helper. All peace be upon he who follows the Guidance.
Some people wonder why Bush won. Jesus Christ has been a pretty good Guardian and Helper. Did he make this statement from his cave he hides in while telling others to commit suicide attacks?
BorneoRagnarok, have you ever thought that the US could help with building water desalination plants or some other method of getting water. There are other options available that you have not thought of, if people seek options. But of course if a sudden attack is waged against you. Then war does seem a response that maybe the only possible option. _________________ Peace out!
You don't have to worry about us at the present moment.
It appears that our present leaders are pretty sane at the moment. We got many friends/relatives on both sides of the border. Anyway, to solve it's long term water problem, Singapore decided to 1)recycle sewage water (just like some parts of California), 2)build a couple of desalination plants and 3)build more reservoirs, majority of which implies higher energy consumption.
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum
News
Discussions
Resources
Members
Forum FAQ
Search
Usergroups
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
I like the part you mentioned about dreaming, because determine the future, who dreams up the next gameplan to obtain resources. 9/11 and Iraq was the first one, it will be intersting to see what our governments dream up next. Lets enjoy these times of peace and for thanksgiving this year thank god for the change to experiance the age of oil - the peak of human civilization. I agree all the US cares about is keeping things going for as long as possible, which will result in a hard landing, instead of focusing on how to make things easier in the future, and make a soft landing possible. With the current Bush administration, you can expect the waste of the last remaining oil and a also a bloodbath for them, our greed will also lead to our fate. Soft landing for the US? Seems almost impossible now.. war and depression are all to be expected.
And yes no eggs for Singapore. 
