Robert Hirsch Presentation in Calgary

FatherOfTwo

I attended Robert Hirsch’s presentation at the UofC today. Essentially it’s a trimmed down power point version of his report, Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management.

I have to say, he’s a very straight laced, no-nonsense kind of guy. It was a very good introduction for newbies, although after reading his original report I didn’t find much new in it. He covered the basics of oil production, showed all of the different projected peak dates by EIA, ExxonMobil, CERA, Campbell, ex-Saudi Aramaco officials etc., and then went on to show what their research says is needed to mitigate. One of the new things I did see was how they’ve incorporated the various “commercial ready” mitigation efforts, CTL, EOR, heavy oil, fuel efficiency increases etc. and he also made it clear that even if these mitigation efforts are rolled out in full force, it’s only under ExxonMobile’s 2030+ date where we can feel confident that we won't encounter any negative effects from Peak Oil. My one disappointment was that he talked of Peak Oil as a liquid fuels crisis, which I agree it is, but it’s also an economic crisis. Perhaps he didn’t want to dump too much do-do on everyone. Smile

At the end I was able to ask him just what exactly the relationship between him, his original report and the DOE is. (Cuz it was never clear to me if the DOE asked him to do it etc.) He stated that “they” (him and his co-authors) approached the DOE with the idea, the DOE agreed to fund it and then when they delivered it, the DOE didn’t quite know what to do with it. He said in general that it’s only been in the last few years where talking about peaking of world oil production hasn’t been considered as “fringe” and that things are “bubbling up” now in the government.

In his language choice you could tell he thinks are going to be bad but would rather get people to act then scare the do-do out of them, so he went to pains to not come across as a scare monger. IMO he’s exactly the type of Peak Oil prophet that needs to be heard.

edit - cleaned up my language!
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Do not underestimate the difficulties of surviving the transition of peak oil, nor the dangers of global warming. We must embrace nuclear energy and renewables.

Carlhole · Expert Joined: Jul 05, 2004 Posts: 2883

Was it videotaped?
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"May you live in interesting times"

Torion · Tar Sands Joined: May 09, 2005 Posts: 34

that's very interesting that he approached the DOE! I wondered about that when I read his report. Thanks for the report and the information!
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seahorse · Expert Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 2089 Location: Arkansas

Fatherof2,

When you asked him about his earlier report, were you asking him about his 1980's? report that RGR has mentioned? Great question and I hope you can give us some more details as to why he did that report in the 80s. Was he just crying wolf in the 80s or do you think he believes PO is going to happen this decade for example.

Such

well.... that is how many things are done in the US. Petition the government.

FatherOfTwo · Posted: Fri Jun 23, 2006 4:29 pm Post subject: