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DoctorDoom
Heavy Crude
Joined: Jun 20, 2004
Posts: 250
Location: California
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 Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:16 am Post subject: Baseline depletion numbers |
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Per Aaron's request, a sticky post with my baseline scenario. Other scenarios gratefully accepted. What we're looking for are models showing production over time, with the production subtracted from reserves so that we can look at the process of the gas tank running dry.
My model still needs some tuning, in particular it behaves badly for the next few years.
The next step, if I can ever get the data, is to add in some data re. alternatives, the main one being coal-to-liquids production, which I'm now convinced is going to start ramping up as the decline sets in.
The step after that is to plug in the consumption, and try to see what policy changes are going to be made (or forced) to deal with the deline without a general collapse.
| Code: |
+----- World ------+ +-- Saudi --+ ME 5
Year Mb/day Gb R/P Heavy R/P Mb/day %world
2004 75.570 1127.9 40.9 0.000 82.7 10.234 28.9%
2005 75.440 1108.9 40.3 0.000 69.8 10.848 30.7%
2006 74.946 1089.7 39.8 0.000 65.1 11.499 32.7%
2007 74.653 1070.2 39.3 0.000 60.7 12.188 34.8%
2008 74.908 1050.2 38.4 0.000 56.5 12.920 36.8%
2009 75.325 1029.6 37.4 0.000 52.5 13.695 38.8%
2010 75.879 1008.5 36.4 1.000 48.8 14.243 40.4%
2011 77.273 987.0 35.0 1.200 46.1 14.812 41.7%
2012 78.073 964.9 33.9 1.440 43.5 15.405 43.4%
2013 78.909 942.3 32.7 1.728 41.0 16.021 45.1%
2014 79.769 919.2 31.6 1.901 38.5 16.342 46.3%
2015 80.241 895.7 30.6 2.091 36.9 16.668 47.7%
2016 80.565 871.9 29.7 2.300 35.3 17.002 49.3%
2017 81.000 847.8 28.7 2.530 33.7 17.342 50.8%
2018 81.497 823.4 27.7 2.783 32.1 17.689 52.0%
2019 81.857 798.7 26.7 3.061 30.6 18.042 53.1%
2020 82.010 773.9 25.9 3.367 29.1 18.042 53.9%
2021 81.899 749.0 25.1 3.704 28.2 18.042 54.9%
2022 81.923 724.0 24.2 4.075 27.2 18.042 55.7%
2023 81.953 699.0 23.4 4.319 26.3 18.042 56.3%
2024 81.771 673.9 22.6 4.578 25.3 18.042 56.9%
2025 81.408 648.9 21.8 4.853 24.4 18.042 57.5%
2026 81.010 624.0 21.1 5.144 23.5 18.042 58.1%
2027 80.698 599.2 20.3 5.453 22.5 18.042 58.7%
2028 80.301 574.5 19.6 5.780 21.6 18.042 59.1%
2029 79.865 550.0 18.9 6.127 20.6 18.042 59.5%
2030 79.335 525.7 18.2 6.494 19.6 17.862 59.6%
2031 78.571 501.6 17.5 6.884 18.9 17.683 60.0%
2032 77.884 477.8 16.8 7.297 18.1 17.507 60.3%
2033 77.273 454.3 16.1 7.338 17.3 17.331 60.5%
2034 76.287 431.1 15.5 7.265 16.5 17.158 61.1%
2035 75.048 408.2 14.9 7.192 15.7 16.987 61.7%
2036 73.680 385.7 14.3 7.120 14.9 16.477 62.0%
2037 71.935 363.6 13.8 7.049 14.3 15.983 62.6%
2038 70.176 342.2 13.4 6.978 13.8 15.503 63.2%
2039 68.439 321.2 12.9 6.909 13.2 15.038 63.8%
2040 66.781 300.8 12.3 6.840 12.6 14.587 64.3%
2041 65.121 280.9 11.8 6.771 12.0 13.405 63.4%
2042 62.395 261.9 11.5 6.703 12.0 12.320 63.5%
2043 59.625 243.8 11.2 6.636 12.0 11.324 63.9%
2044 57.041 226.5 10.9 6.570 12.0 10.409 64.0%
2045 54.508 210.1 10.6 6.504 12.0 9.569 64.3%
2046 52.138 194.5 10.2 6.439 12.0 8.798 63.6%
2047 49.406 179.8 10.0 6.375 12.0 8.090 62.9%
2048 46.584 166.1 9.8 6.311 12.0 7.439 62.7%
2049 43.966 153.2 9.5 6.248 12.0 6.842 61.8%
2050 41.274 141.3 9.4 6.186 12.0 6.293 61.3%
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stayathomedad
Tar Sands
Joined: Jul 18, 2004
Posts: 73
Location: wilmington, nc
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| Posted: Mon Oct 18, 2004 7:21 pm Post subject: |
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quick question, where do you think that production in saudi arabia is coming from? that is a lot they have to pump. just scratching my head over it, but your data, on first look looks a lot like the us government models. so i wonder why there is a discrepancy bteween these models, like aspo vs. regulatory data. do you know? i have been puzzled for a while about this. can you help me, as a matter of fact, all of us understand this.
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It just gets better every day.... |
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pup55
Expert
Joined: May 26, 2004
Posts: 3394
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| Posted: Tue Nov 09, 2004 9:58 am Post subject: |
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Happy Graphing!
US-EIA: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/excel/aeotab_21.xls
EE: EnviroEngr per the previous post
Bakhtiari:http://www3.telus.net/public/a6a20277/
ASPO: Aspo website
| Code: | year US-EIA EE Bakhtiari ASPO
2000 75.7 74.0 75.0
2001 76.3 75.5
2002 76.8 77.0
2003 77.9 78.0
2004 79.2 75.6 79.0
2005 80.6 75.4 80.0 84.0
2006 82.0 74.9 81.0
2007 83.5 74.7 80.5
2008 84.8 74.9 80.0 85.0
2009 86.2 75.3 79.0
2010 87.6 75.9 77.5 84.0
2011 89.1 77.3 76.0
2012 90.6 78.1 74.5
2013 92.0 78.9 73.0
2014 93.4 79.8 71.5
2015 95.1 80.2 69.5
2016 96.8 80.6 67.0
2017 98.6 81.0 64.5
2018 100.3 81.5 60.5
2019 102.2 81.9 58.0
2020 104.1 82.0 54.5 65.0
2021 106.1 81.9
2022 108.1 81.9
2023 110.1 82.0
2024 112.4 81.8
2025 81.4
2026 81.0
2027 80.7
2028 80.3
2029 79.9
2030 79.3
2031 78.6
2032 77.9
2033 77.3
2034 76.3
2035 75.0
2036 73.7
2037 71.9
2038 70.2
2039 68.4
2040 66.8
2041 65.1
2042 62.4
2043 59.6
2044 57.0
2045 54.5
2046 52.1
2047 49.4
2048 46.6
2049 44.0
2050 41.3 33.0 |
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pup55
Expert
Joined: May 26, 2004
Posts: 3394
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| Posted: Tue Nov 09, 2004 9:59 am Post subject: my bad |
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I inadvertently attributed the above forecast to EE rather than Dr. Doom, the rightful forecaster.
Sorry. |
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Madpaddy
Expert
Joined: Jun 25, 2004
Posts: 1925
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| Posted: Tue Nov 09, 2004 11:45 am Post subject: |
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I'm a bit stupid
But do those figures show a peak in 2020 and an almost doubling of Saudi output?
Sounds hopeful to me
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Permanently_Baffled
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Aug 12, 2004
Posts: 1180
Location: England
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| Posted: Tue Nov 09, 2004 2:42 pm Post subject: |
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Why does peak Heavy oil happen so quickly in this model? , even the pessimistic ASPO dont even have heavy oil peaking in 2050!
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Peak Oil? crap Happens ! |
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Tanada
Expert
Joined: Apr 28, 2005
Posts: 3277
Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
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| Posted: Fri May 06, 2005 10:22 pm Post subject: Re: Baseline depletion numbers |
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| DoctorDoom wrote: | Per Aaron's request, a sticky post with my baseline scenario. Other scenarios gratefully accepted. What we're looking for are models showing production over time, with the production subtracted from reserves so that we can look at the process of the gas tank running dry.
My model still needs some tuning, in particular it behaves badly for the next few years.
The next step, if I can ever get the data, is to add in some data re. alternatives, the main one being coal-to-liquids production, which I'm now convinced is going to start ramping up as the decline sets in.
The step after that is to plug in the consumption, and try to see what policy changes are going to be made (or forced) to deal with the deline without a general collapse.
| Code: |
+----- World ------+ +-- Saudi --+ ME 5
Year Mb/day Gb R/P Heavy R/P Mb/day %world
2004 75.570 1127.9 40.9 0.000 82.7 10.234 28.9%
2005 75.440 1108.9 40.3 0.000 69.8 10.848 30.7%
2006 74.946 1089.7 39.8 0.000 65.1 11.499 32.7%
2007 74.653 1070.2 39.3 0.000 60.7 12.188 34.8%
2008 74.908 1050.2 38.4 0.000 56.5 12.920 36.8%
2009 75.325 1029.6 37.4 0.000 52.5 13.695 38.8%
2010 75.879 1008.5 36.4 1.000 48.8 14.243 40.4%
2011 77.273 987.0 35.0 1.200 46.1 14.812 41.7%
2012 78.073 964.9 33.9 1.440 43.5 15.405 43.4%
2013 78.909 942.3 32.7 1.728 41.0 16.021 45.1%
2014 79.769 919.2 31.6 1.901 38.5 16.342 46.3%
2015 80.241 895.7 30.6 2.091 36.9 16.668 47.7%
2016 80.565 871.9 29.7 2.300 35.3 17.002 49.3%
2017 81.000 847.8 28.7 2.530 33.7 17.342 50.8%
2018 81.497 823.4 27.7 2.783 32.1 17.689 52.0%
2019 81.857 798.7 26.7 3.061 30.6 18.042 53.1%
2020 82.010 773.9 25.9 3.367 29.1 18.042 53.9%
2021 81.899 749.0 25.1 3.704 28.2 18.042 54.9%
2022 81.923 724.0 24.2 4.075 27.2 18.042 55.7%
2023 81.953 699.0 23.4 4.319 26.3 18.042 56.3%
2024 81.771 673.9 22.6 4.578 25.3 18.042 56.9%
2025 81.408 648.9 21.8 4.853 24.4 18.042 57.5%
2026 81.010 624.0 21.1 5.144 23.5 18.042 58.1%
2027 80.698 599.2 20.3 5.453 22.5 18.042 58.7%
2028 80.301 574.5 19.6 5.780 21.6 18.042 59.1%
2029 79.865 550.0 18.9 6.127 20.6 18.042 59.5%
2030 79.335 525.7 18.2 6.494 19.6 17.862 59.6%
2031 78.571 501.6 17.5 6.884 18.9 17.683 60.0%
2032 77.884 477.8 16.8 7.297 18.1 17.507 60.3%
2033 77.273 454.3 16.1 7.338 17.3 17.331 60.5%
2034 76.287 431.1 15.5 7.265 16.5 17.158 61.1%
2035 75.048 408.2 14.9 7.192 15.7 16.987 61.7%
2036 73.680 385.7 14.3 7.120 14.9 16.477 62.0%
2037 71.935 363.6 13.8 7.049 14.3 15.983 62.6%
2038 70.176 342.2 13.4 6.978 13.8 15.503 63.2%
2039 68.439 321.2 12.9 6.909 13.2 15.038 63.8%
2040 66.781 300.8 12.3 6.840 12.6 14.587 64.3%
2041 65.121 280.9 11.8 6.771 12.0 13.405 63.4%
2042 62.395 261.9 11.5 6.703 12.0 12.320 63.5%
2043 59.625 243.8 11.2 6.636 12.0 11.324 63.9%
2044 57.041 226.5 10.9 6.570 12.0 10.409 64.0%
2045 54.508 210.1 10.6 6.504 12.0 9.569 64.3%
2046 52.138 194.5 10.2 6.439 12.0 8.798 63.6%
2047 49.406 179.8 10.0 6.375 12.0 8.090 62.9%
2048 46.584 166.1 9.8 6.311 12.0 7.439 62.7%
2049 43.966 153.2 9.5 6.248 12.0 6.842 61.8%
2050 41.274 141.3 9.4 6.186 12.0 6.293 61.3%
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Do oyu have any fresh numbers to plug in next to these projections to test their accuracy?
_________________
Oxygen: - An intensely habit-forming accumulative toxic substance. As little
as one breath is known to produce a life-long addiction to the gas, which addiction invariably ends in death.--Isaac Asimov |
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Cool Hand Linc
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Apr 17, 2004
Posts: 985
Location: Tulsa, Ok
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| Posted: Mon Jun 06, 2005 6:16 pm Post subject: aspo peak date |
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Perm Baf,
May 2005 ASPO news letter shows
regular oil 2006
Heavy 2021
deepwater 2014
polar 2030
gas liquid 2027
These numbers also include 145 billion barrels of regular oil that have yet to be discovered.
If we keep using 82 million barrels per day. Thats just under 30 billion barrels a year...........
all averaged together 2007
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Peace out!
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khebab
Moderator
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Joined: Sep 27, 2004
Posts: 935
Location: Canada
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| Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2005 8:44 am Post subject: |
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Question: the production numbers seems to be low, are we considering only conventional oil here?
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http://GraphOilogy.blogspot.com |
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Cool Hand Linc
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Apr 17, 2004
Posts: 985
Location: Tulsa, Ok
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| Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2005 1:37 pm Post subject: well |
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Heavy, deepwater, polar, gas liquid (condensate) are not conventional crude.
The dates I copied from ASPO are for the type listed next to the date.
So the answer to your question is 'no'.
_________________
Peace out!
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EnergySpin
Fission
Joined: Jun 25, 2005
Posts: 2381
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| Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2005 3:16 pm Post subject: |
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Hi Dr Doom,
which formulas did you use?
SW implementation etc? |
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grabby
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Nov 08, 2005
Posts: 1328
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| Posted: Tue Nov 15, 2005 12:40 am Post subject: Re: Baseline depletion numbers |
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the estimated reserves of the countries in 1980 were the same as now. Didn't we use any oil since then?
Last edited by grabby on Wed Feb 08, 2006 8:37 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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grabby
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Nov 08, 2005
Posts: 1328
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| Posted: Tue Nov 15, 2005 12:43 am Post subject: Re: my bad |
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| Nice graph though, and a lot of work. Thanks. |
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grabby
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Nov 08, 2005
Posts: 1328
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| Posted: Sun Apr 30, 2006 11:12 am Post subject: Re: Baseline depletion numbers |
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May want to recheck your for,mula
2004 75.570 1127.9 40.9 0.000 82.7 10.234 28.9%
2005 75.440 1108.9 40.3 0.000 69.8 10.848 30.7%
you have 75.57 million barrels per day and there are 365 days per year.
that would be 27.58 Gigabarrels subtracted from 1127.9
that would be 1100 not 1108.
I think your numbers are off for some reason, if I am wrong please go through the first iteration step by step.
thanks.
we have passed supply/demand peak regardless of how much
they increase production.
supply demand peak is what sets the prices, and is what will start a lot of problems, we cannot produce as much as we need already. forget about 2025..
_________________
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WHEN THE BLIND LEAD THE BLIND...GET OUT OF THE WAY!
Using evil to further good makes one evil
Doubt everything but the TRUTH
This posted information is not permissible to be used
by anyone who has ever met a lawyer |
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