Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Tue Jul 04, 2006 1:59 pm Post subject: The airlines admit to Peak Oil (!!)
Quote:
726. The airlines admit to Peak Oil too
The July issue of Airways, which is the journal of the international airline industry, carries a lead article
entitled Peak Oil – The Collapse of Commercial Aviation. It is a long, perceptive and well informed article
by Alex Kuhlman, suggesting that the industry must plan a profitable decline. The Middle East national
airlines are identified as likely survivors, noting that Emirates Airlines have recently bought 43 Airbus 380s,
a very large aircraft with a low fuel-burn per seat. Meanwhile airports are being expanded in many countries
based on the false assumption that the past growth in traffic can continue.
It seems to me that when an Airline Industry journal concedes Peak Oil, we can safely say that the canary, 17 sparrows, and several dozen finches have sung. _________________ Dieoff. Fun to watch. Better with hot buttered popcorn!
Posted: Tue Jul 04, 2006 2:45 pm Post subject: Re: The airlines admit to Peak Oil (!!)
And so it begins. Ever so slowly, but it begins.
I guess this is the year. 2006.
Lately, I've become less and less interested in discussing the peak. It's probably going to be here by 2012, which might as well be tomorrow when you look at it from a lifetime's perspective. What difference does it make whether it's 2006 or 2012? What would you do differently if it was one date vs another?
Peakers are no more likely to do well in the financial aftermath of a world with declining energy resources just because they knew it was coming. So you know it's coming. So what? How does that put a roof over your head?
Posted: Tue Jul 04, 2006 3:09 pm Post subject: Re: The airlines admit to Peak Oil (!!)
I tried to find the original article referenced by ASPO but didn't have any luck. It would be interesting to read.
My first reaction was "good, there are WAY too many people flying anyway!" Then I realized what I was saying - there just won't be any flights at all one day before long. Or very, very few, and they will be very, very expensive.
Actually, probably most of the 100K-plus miles I fly yearly could be replaced with virtual meetings, etc. I predict we'll all rapidly learn that physically being on the other side of the world isn't nearly as important as it was before peak.
Posted: Tue Jul 04, 2006 3:26 pm Post subject: Re: The airlines admit to Peak Oil (!!)
I've been googling for a half hour or so ( while trying to watch Italy-Germany, see men CAN multitask), and I am pretty sure this must be the original link:
Joined: Oct 17, 2005 Posts: 68 Location: The Netherlands
Posted: Tue Jul 04, 2006 3:27 pm Post subject: Re: The airlines admit to Peak Oil (!!)
Could this be the article?
Quote:
Peak Oil: The Coming Global Crisis and the Decline of Aviation
By Drs. Alex Kuhlman
October 29, 2005
Although debated and denied frequently, a massive shortfall in oil production is coming faster than many are willing to admit. Drs. Alex Kuhlman assesses the situation and its effect on the airline industry, and reminds us to start thinking about tomorrow.
Posted: Tue Jul 04, 2006 3:53 pm Post subject: Re: The airlines admit to Peak Oil (!!)
Until I read this article, I thought *all* airlines hedged... wow!
I also fail to see how Emirates can buy this many A380's and expect high bum-on seat capacity, especially as the same article talks of overcapacity in the industry.
I'm typing this as I watch the news and the shuttle is lifting off - how many gallons does THAT burn per second?
Dark stuff indeed:
The chief economist of Morgan Stanley recently predicted that we have a 90 percent chance of facing “economic Armageddon.” During the transition period to a post oil era, there may be massive disruptions to transportation as the global decline of oil deepens. There will be social unrest and a strong reduction of business and government activity and very serious unemployment.
The decline of oil is a certainty and is guaranteed by the natural laws that govern our physical world, and nothing in science, technology or engineering can prevent it.
On current trends, a country like China will be requiring 99 million barrels of oil per day by 2031, while total world production today is only 84 million barrels.
So.. we will shortly have front row seats for PO *and* resource wars - China is hardly going to stand by and be deprived of her growing share of resources.
Posted: Tue Jul 04, 2006 4:19 pm Post subject: Re: The Canary in the Mineshaft
From a corporate jet pilot on the forum of that link:
Quote:
In regards to the previous post, I think the user is missing the primary point of this article, and the peak oil phenomenon in general: that of the cost of production. Jet fuel needs to be produced on MASSIVE levels to sustain the air transport system. I doubt that algae can produce the needed amounts of fuel for air travel. Although I am not as familiar with this production method, the cost per unit of producing kerosene using algae is almost sure to be exponentially higher than that of refining it from "cheap" crude harvested from oil rich regions of the world, such as the middle east, due to this problem of production amounts. This is the same fallacy to the argument of using ethanol grown from corn to fuel cars. Ethanol would be relatively far more expensive than oil-based gasoline, and also misses the point that modern agriculture is dependent upon oil (petroleum based fertilizers, pesticides, and oil-powered equipment).
Peak oil is about the end of cheap, easily scalable energy, not energy. Few seem to grasp this very basic concept. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Tue Jul 04, 2006 5:02 pm Post subject: Re: The airlines admit to Peak Oil (!!)
Dr Alex Kuhlman is the author of a site that sells books + DVDs that feature extreme PO doomer porn.
Furthermore, he flies for a low cost airliner (or at least this is what his resume says at the end of the aforementioned article).
According to his website ...
"His interest about Peak Oil was aroused by coincidence in the beginning of 2004 while surfing the Internet. "
The guy quotes ASPO and ASPO quotes him => circular reference patterns do nothing to boost someone's credibility.
In any case, it is not the airlines per se who admit to PO, but a single airline pilot who also sells doomer porn books+DVD on the side, while smoking high quality crap in Amsterdam (it is virtually impossible NOT to get high in 'dam; the "coffee" shops are almost everywhere).
I would not worry that much about PO and the airlines ... EU is about to give them something else to worry about: according to BBC they will be forced to pay VAT on jet fuel, in order to internalize the environmental cost of flying (Source)
Time to start building the TGV + MAGLEV railroad highways of the future .... powered by nuclear + wind
Edited for a) semantic clarity b) addition of incendiary remarks _________________ "Nuclear power has long been to the Left what embryonic-stem-cell research is to the Right--irredeemably wrong and a signifier of moral weakness."Esquire Magazine,12/05
The genetic code is commaless and so are my posts.
Last edited by EnergySpin on Tue Jul 04, 2006 6:16 pm; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Tue Jul 04, 2006 5:44 pm Post subject: Re: The airlines admit to Peak Oil (!!)
MC2 wrote:
Actually, probably most of the 100K-plus miles I fly yearly could be replaced with virtual meetings, etc. I predict we'll all rapidly learn that physically being on the other side of the world isn't nearly as important as it was before peak.
Exactly, and even before peak I've learned how to complete tasks that others would consider impossible unless you were on site... There is no reason to travel unless you have to physically manipulate an object and even then with a web cam that can be avoided. Isolated networks can be accessed via duel protocols and middlemen but use this at your own risks of course. _________________ -Dac
Winners never quit and quiters never win, but those that never win and never quit are idiots.
Joined: Sep 06, 2004 Posts: 5315 Location: Smalltown New Zealand
Posted: Tue Jul 04, 2006 5:54 pm Post subject: Re: The airlines admit to Peak Oil (!!)
News that will cheer up the Airlines is that Europe wants to impose VAT on jet fuel to help them internalise their costs. _________________ "Complex problems have simple, easy to understand, wrong answers." - Henry Louis Mencken
Joined: Nov 15, 2005 Posts: 156 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Tue Jul 04, 2006 7:01 pm Post subject: Re: The airlines admit to Peak Oil (!!)
Quote:
So.. we will shortly have front row seats for PO *and* resource wars - China is hardly going to stand by and be deprived of her growing share of resources.
We already have front row seats for resource wars. Resource wars are here now. The latest war on Iraq is an oil war, there are smaller scale oil wars in Nigeria and the Sudan. I believe the current kerfuffle over Iran's nuclear programme is really about oil. The US government "is hardly going to stand by and be deprived of her growing share of resources".
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