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Peakoil.com :: View topic - $3 gas feared by this weekend
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$3 gas feared by this weekend
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KevO
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 06, 2006 6:36 am    Post subject: $3 gas feared by this weekend Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

"Recent snags in oil-shipping and refining along the Gulf Coast have raised traders' concerns about motor-fuel supplies at a time when demand continues to rise despite soaring prices. The start of a new fiscal quarter also has brought more speculative money into the market, brokers said.

"Everybody thought we'd hit a price that would create permanent demand destruction. But demand for gasoline is rising," said Alaron Trading Corp. analyst Phil Flynn. "Once again, the American public has shown its ability to get over paying high prices for gasoline."

Oil prices jumped to a record above $75 a barrel yesterday, propelled by a rally in gasoline that analysts said could send average U.S. pump prices past $3 a gallon by the weekend."

from, with more at,
http://www.concordmonitor.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060706/REPOSITORY/607060367/1013/48HOURS
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Heineken
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 06, 2006 6:49 am    Post subject: Re: $3 gas feared by this weekend Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Oil is at record levels but gasoline prices seem to be mysteriously lagging, compared with last year's run-up.

Right now the surefire catalyst for $80 oil would be a Gulf-bound hurricane. But hurricanes don't seem to be materializing (although it's still fairly early in the season). Since hurricanes have been hyped so vigorously, I wouldn't be surprised to see this hurricane season be a big flop.
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duke3522
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 06, 2006 6:54 am    Post subject: Re: $3 gas feared by this weekend Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Here in north-east Indiana gas went to $3.09 yesterday, and we are normally 10-15 cents below the national average.

I believe that the breaking of the $3 barrier to be a major milestone. But there is little, or no demand destruction around here. My dad lives year round in a lake house that is surrounded by hundreds of summer only lake homes. Most of the folk who own these homes burn a lot of gas traveling the 100+ miles each weekend to reach the lake. Then they spend the weekend consuming even more gas in their speed boats, jet skis, and lawn care equipment.

Considering all the gas these folks use, one would think that $3 gas would put a bit of a dent in the party. But, according to the local newspaper, area gas stations are pumping more gas than ever.

Demand destruction!! We ain't got no stinking demand destruction!!
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 06, 2006 7:16 am    Post subject: Re: $3 gas feared by this weekend Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

In the $2.90s here in NE Atlanta and folks are still roaring along the interstates and GA-400 at 80+ mph in their big SUVs and crew cab pickups. I really think we would have to see $4.50+ per gallon before it really becomes a burden around here. An exta $30-50 a tank for a fillup just isn't causing much economic pain.
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Pablo2079
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 06, 2006 7:22 am    Post subject: Re: $3 gas feared by this weekend Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

We've just recently dropped below $3 around Seattle at some stations for the last couple weeks. Being above $3 didn't seem to slow down demand around here...... Hard to say what the magic number will be.... $4?
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Pops
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 06, 2006 7:28 am    Post subject: Re: $3 gas feared by this weekend Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Heineken wrote:
Oil is at record levels but gasoline prices seem to be mysteriously lagging, compared with last year's run-up.

I was wondering the other day why diesel is now more expensive than unleaded; as far back as I can remember it was always cheaper.

Could it be that diesel is more of a requirement for business and some of the added cost can be passed done the chain to the consumer – kind of hidden, while keeping the price of gas relatively lower so as not to affect demand?

Or is there a more straightforward answer?
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Heineken
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 06, 2006 7:50 am    Post subject: Re: $3 gas feared by this weekend Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Pops wrote:
Heineken wrote:
Oil is at record levels but gasoline prices seem to be mysteriously lagging, compared with last year's run-up.

I was wondering the other day why diesel is now more expensive than unleaded; as far back as I can remember it was always cheaper.

Could it be that diesel is more of a requirement for business and some of the added cost can be passed done the chain to the consumer – kind of hidden, while keeping the price of gas relatively lower so as not to affect demand?

Or is there a more straightforward answer?


Here's an answer, pops (not very straightforward, I'm afraid):

http://www.edmunds.com/insideline/do/Columns/articleId=108465
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J-Rod
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 06, 2006 7:52 am    Post subject: Re: $3 gas feared by this weekend Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I asked that same question last year, about the discrepancy between the cost of diesel and unleaded. As far as I could remember it was always cheaper as well. I thought it might have had something to do with refining, since there's bottlenecks. I thought at first that maybe they were making more regular gas from a barrel than diesel, causing the price of diesel to rise. From what I have read, however, fractional distillation doesn't allow one to really choose how much of what product is created. You heat the crude, and different products are created at different densities/temps.



So yeah, I dunno. dontknow
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 06, 2006 8:12 am    Post subject: Re: $3 gas feared by this weekend Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I think fears of big prices in gasoline will be short lived this summer. The Republican party will undoubtedly coordinate with big oil to keep the prices down. Big increases in gasoline prices will mean voter anger which in turn will mean the voters will lash out at the party in power at the polls in the mid-term elections. Barring an external event; such as an Iranian oil embargo, the price of gas will probably mysteriously drop this fall. If the Iranians do something foolish, or Bush decides its time to create a new external enemy to rally the populous around our government, then you might see gasoline prices rise; but I really don't expect to see big oil do anything that might help the democrats this fall.
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Pops
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 06, 2006 8:29 am    Post subject: Re: $3 gas feared by this weekend Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

From Heinies link:

Quote:
The EIA has a helpful "Frequently Asked Questions" posting on its Web site that addresses the question, "Why are diesel prices so high?" To summarize the answer: Yada yada yada…distillate fuel production…lower than typical…heating oil…vote Republican…largest determinate for future path…yada yada, and, in conclusion, yada.

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But there may be relief in sight, thanks to Willie Nelson. Willie is a backer of "BioWillie," a biodiesel fuel made from seeds and stems and probably soybeans.

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Quote:
I asked a friend who is in the petroleum industry why they charge so much for diesel.

"Because we can," he said.

That, I understand.


Kinda what I thought...
---

THanks J-Rod, I also thought there was little leaway so wondered, the article Heinie posted talked about increasing worldwide demand for diesel and refomulating to lower the sulfer content - probably the best answer we are likely to get.

Now back to your regularly scheduled topic...
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Tuike
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 06, 2006 1:17 pm    Post subject: Re: $3 gas feared by this weekend Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Gas prices are increasing in Finland too. We have normally gas at 6 $/gal, but now we are approaching 7$/gal. One of my friends suggested that I should buy a bicycle and he's not a peak oiler. I should listen to him. Smile
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RonMN
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 06, 2006 1:28 pm    Post subject: Re: $3 gas feared by this weekend Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

$3.09 in the Minneapolis area.
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Trab
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 06, 2006 1:49 pm    Post subject: Re: $3 gas feared by this weekend Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Yup... I needed to fill my tank yesterday and stopped at a local BP station that was listing at $2.86/gallon, with the SuperAmerica next door already at $3.09.

This is getting close to the high-water mark around here last year right after Katrina. If we get another big hurricane in the oil patch this year, watch out.
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jato
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 06, 2006 2:18 pm    Post subject: Re: $3 gas feared by this weekend Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Down here gasoline has been over $3.00 since April.

It peaked at $3.45, down to $3.15 and currently on its way up passing through $3.25.
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 06, 2006 2:34 pm    Post subject: Re: $3 gas feared by this weekend Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Today on the way home I saw 3.05 regular 330 plus and 340 premium and for the first time I could not fill up my metro with 20 dollars, it was 1/4 short.

man it is getting pricey.
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