I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Joined: Jun 13, 2005 Posts: 1206 Location: Western US
Posted: Sat Jul 08, 2006 8:40 am Post subject: Chaotic Dubai builds up ... as oil dries up
Hello world. When a middle eastern country is proud to announce it's prepared to live without oil, shouldn't this be a wake up call? Although from this article I'm not convinced by any stretch that they're ready to live without oil.
'We are now ready to live without oil,' says Dubai's Department of Tourism. Transformation of city-emirate on the Gulf part of a plan 'to position Dubai as the leading centre for commerce and tourism in the world'
There are more than 100 nationalities and every stratum of society in this city-emirate on the Gulf, from rich Arab sheikhs to expat Western executives and Asian labourers. And every day, they share the most equalizing experience: sitting in traffic jams.
"The traffic is ruining this city," says Raflek, an Indian driver, as we idle in a sea of cars on Sheikh Zayed Road, Dubai's main thoroughfare and the most dramatic example of the transformation of this tiny emirate from another oil-rich Gulf state to a can-do capitalist mecca.
Ten years ago, there were a couple of towers along this road. Today, gleaming hotels, shopping malls and skyscrapers line up end-to-end along its several-kilometre stretch, broken up by sandy lots where construction has not yet started but the billboards are already up.
"It is getting to be like London, where all we talk about is the traffic and the weather," says Claire Malcolm, a British expat who has been working in Dubai for the past four years. The endless traffic jams that can turn a half-hour commute into a two-hour stall in the sweltering desert are the most visible growing pains in what has become the world's biggest construction zone -- all fuelled because Dubai is running out of oil.
...
The population is growing at a rate of 8% a year as guest workers stream in. It is estimated local Emiratis will represent only 4% of the population by 2010. Sandwiched between the sea and the desert, Dubai is sprawling out into both. Ambitious man-made islands, such as the Palm Jumeriah and the World projects, are being dredged out of the Gulf. Mini-cities and duty-free zones, where foreign companies are attracted by the "light" regulations -- no income or corporate taxes -- are pushing back the desert. There are Media and Internet City, Healthcare City and even Humanitarian City, with its Middle Eastern headquarters of organizations such as Unicef and the World Wildlife Foundation. Two dozen schools are planned for Academic City, which will include separate men's and women's universities. Then there are the infrastructure projects: roads, bridges, canals and a subway line, to be completed in 2011.
But the clock is ticking in Dubai. It is estimated Dubai's oil reserves will be depleted by 2016. Dubai's construction chaos is, in fact, part of a well-orchestrated plan for life after oil. Dubai's economy grew by 16% in 2005, compared with a growth rate for the UAE of 7%. Oil now accounts for only 6% of Dubai's income.
"We are now ready to live without oil," says Hamad Mohammed bin Mejren, manager, Department of Tourism, for the government of Dubai. Tourism is now one of Dubai's biggest earners. From six million visitors in 2005, the target is to reach 15 million annual visitors by 2010. "Our vision is to position Dubai as the leading centre for commerce and tourism in the world."
...
Closer to home, there are voices in Alberta calling for a similar plan for the future to lessen the province's dependency on oil. "No one is interested in talking about diversity because everyone is so busy making money," says Todd Hirsch, the chief economist at the Canada West Foundation, and author of a recent report on the province's economic future titled As Good as it Gets. According to Mr. Hirsch, Alberta's booming oil economy is stifling the growth of other sectors. "We won't run out of oil -- there's so much oil here. But at some point in time, the world is going to get over its dependency on crude oil and the big question is, what will Alberta do at that point."
Posted: Sat Jul 08, 2006 9:03 am Post subject: Re: Chaotic Dubai builds up ... as oil dries up
LadyRuby wrote:
Hello world. When a middle eastern country is proud to announce it's prepared to live without oil, shouldn't this be a wake up call? Although from this article I'm not convinced by any stretch that they're ready to live without oil.
They can live without oil, but a lot of camels will be needed.
Posted: Sat Jul 08, 2006 9:12 am Post subject: Re: Chaotic Dubai builds up ... as oil dries up
Dubai will end up like the ancient city of Shibam. Six hundred years ago it was the most advanced city in the world but have since become a joke carried on the winds of history. Shibam the pre-modern city that build sky-scrapers 500 years before Chicago is desolate and abandoned.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Sat Jul 08, 2006 10:21 am Post subject: Re: Chaotic Dubai builds up ... as oil dries up
Incredable stuff - total depletion by 2016.
Novus - quite a spectacular ME example there. I agree, although I think with the rising sea levels of GW, a boat may be preferable to a camel ride in the part of the city near the port.
Those that own property or businesses in the UAE best sell out now or quite soon, or even better, make plans to leave.
Joined: Jun 13, 2005 Posts: 1206 Location: Western US
Posted: Sat Jul 08, 2006 1:17 pm Post subject: Re: Chaotic Dubai builds up ... as oil dries up
Novus wrote:
Dubai will end up like the ancient city of Shibam. Six hundred years ago it was the most advanced city in the world but have since become a joke carried on the winds of history. Shibam the pre-modern city that build sky-scrapers 500 years before Chicago is desolate and abandoned.
Posted: Sat Jul 08, 2006 1:52 pm Post subject: Re: Chaotic Dubai builds up ... as oil dries up
Actually, you can see streetlights in the first photo. Wikipedia says the town has 7,000 inhabitants today, so it is not strictly speaking a lost or abandoned city. Most likely wars or changes in trade routes led to its decline, something that has happened to many cities throughout history.
Joined: Oct 12, 2004 Posts: 1647 Location: Davis, California
Posted: Sat Jul 08, 2006 10:04 pm Post subject: Re: Chaotic Dubai builds up ... as oil dries up
Dubai doesn't have too many fossil resources compared to the other Middle Eastern companies. Also, diversifying economies is not a bad thing at all. Saudi Arabia suffered a great deal when oil prices collapsed in the late 90s because of their economy's dependency on crude oil. _________________ Joseph Stalin "It is enough that the people know there was an election. The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything. "
Posted: Sun Jul 09, 2006 12:12 am Post subject: Re: Chaotic Dubai builds up ... as oil dries up
Dubai is in a prime position for delopment! They have easy access to cheap labour from all over the relatively poor Islamic countries surrounding it. There are a few hundred new skyscrapers and developments being developed in Dubai in the moment, and that will probably secure it's position as the prime city of the ME and surrounding region for quite some time. They also have a quite educated (native) workforce and would have no trouble importing them from Pakistan and other places.
Posted: Sun Jul 09, 2006 12:31 am Post subject: Re: Chaotic Dubai builds up ... as oil dries up
LOTRFAN55345,
I like to quote some of your own words back to you.
lotrfan55345 wrote:
thos farking muslims are the cause of the world farking problems those Fark should farking die i say we farking make 'em out farking slaves those small dicked Fark should be working our farking fields feading us god those people are farking up the seed of the white by living in our farking land just farking turn the sand into farking glass over there those Fark deserve it and tsara bomb they got some nerve building that Fark dubai those pissy Fark!
Joined: Oct 22, 2005 Posts: 709 Location: European Capital of Kulcha 2008
Posted: Sun Jul 09, 2006 3:08 am Post subject: Re: Chaotic Dubai builds up ... as oil dries up
Would somebody please ask the Director of Tourism, how people are going to get to Dubai in 2016; and what sort of disposable incomes they're likely to have should they manage to arrive?
Joined: May 24, 2004 Posts: 3429 Location: California, USA
Posted: Sun Jul 09, 2006 4:27 pm Post subject: Re: Chaotic Dubai builds up ... as oil dries up
And, what plans are they making for energy supply? If there's anywhere in the world where photovoltaics would be as cost-effective as nuclear and wind, the Middle Eastern desert is it. And if Dubai is so hot on international legitimacy, it seems they could start a civilian nuclear program with full international inspection, and pull it off.
Question: what flavor of Islam is dominant in Dubai? Shia, Sunni, or something else? I doubt they're Wahhabi, that (heretical puritanical sect) seems particular to Saudi.
Re. the ancient city full of ancient skyscrapers: what I'd like to know is how they handled water supply, sewage disposal, and refuse disposal. There might be some useful lessons to be learned.
Posted: Sun Jul 09, 2006 5:33 pm Post subject: Re: Chaotic Dubai builds up ... as oil dries up
Traveling to a moslem country would be my first choice to think about for a vacation. No stress there especially since I am amrican. _________________ ___________________________
WHEN THE BLIND LEAD THE BLIND...GET OUT OF THE WAY!
Using evil to further good makes one evil
Doubt everything but the TRUTH
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by anyone who has ever met a lawyer
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