Posted: Thu Jul 20, 2006 10:50 am Post subject: Re: Another record 2
As near as I can figure, tomorrow is the last day of trading on August contracts. People who don't actually want to take delivery are cashing out. September is still trading around $74. _________________ The whole of human history is a refutation by experiment of the concept of "moral world order". - Friedrich Nietzsche
Posted: Thu Jul 20, 2006 8:37 pm Post subject: Re: Another record 2
Dreamtwister wrote:
As near as I can figure, tomorrow is the last day of trading on August contracts. People who don't actually want to take delivery are cashing out. September is still trading around $74.
Ah, perhaps that's why the NYMEX front page price is showing n/a. 321energy is already displaying the September contract, now at $74.05. _________________ Live quotes - crude oil, gold and currencies
http://www.post1.net/lowem/page/livequotes
"The implications for the supply of oil are not good," he said.
In the past Verleger has been criticized for predicting that oil prices were going to surge much higher. But his so-called "extreme" outlooks have come true. He was one of the first analysts to predict that oil prices would rise to $60 a barrel, and then to $70 a barrel. Within a year, he said, oil prices could easily go to $100 a barrel because of the tightness of the energy market.
A major issue among economists is how much of a "risk premium" exists in today's oil price. Schenker said, for example, that today's supply-and-demand situation likely would produce an oil price of no more than $55 a barrel. The rest of the price results from market fears about supply disruptions.
Weissman took issue with this point of view. He said there is only a small, if any, risk premium in today's price, and that Americans should get prepared that they will continue to pay close to current prices for oil for a long time.
The idea of a big risk premium in today's oil price "is a complete myth," he said. "I think what we are really seeing is that the price of oil is exactly what is needed for the market to balance supply and demand."
_________________ "Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
Posted: Fri Jul 21, 2006 6:46 am Post subject: Re: Another record 2
Quote:
The idea of a big risk premium in today's oil price "is a complete myth," he said. "I think what we are really seeing is that the price of oil is exactly what is needed for the market to balance supply and demand."
If we are really at the peak or even beyond, which might not be easily gleaned with available data, then I'd postulate crude is undervalued. I do agree, though, that the prima facie supply/demand price is probably where it needs to be. The phrase, risk premium, reeks of politico talking points so as to take our eyes off the supply/demand dynamic.
I wish the "experts" in mediaville would report the actual supply cushion, spare capacity numbers (200kbd at best?, and shrinking) as conspicuously as the inventory data, week over week, and then utter their risk premium rhetoric.
"The implications for the supply of oil are not good," he said.
In the past Verleger has been criticized for predicting that oil prices were going to surge much higher. But his so-called "extreme" outlooks have come true. He was one of the first analysts to predict that oil prices would rise to $60 a barrel, and then to $70 a barrel. Within a year, he said, oil prices could easily go to $100 a barrel because of the tightness of the energy market.
A major issue among economists is how much of a "risk premium" exists in today's oil price. Schenker said, for example, that today's supply-and-demand situation likely would produce an oil price of no more than $55 a barrel. The rest of the price results from market fears about supply disruptions.
Weissman took issue with this point of view. He said there is only a small, if any, risk premium in today's price, and that Americans should get prepared that they will continue to pay close to current prices for oil for a long time.
The idea of a big risk premium in today's oil price "is a complete myth," he said. "I think what we are really seeing is that the price of oil is exactly what is needed for the market to balance supply and demand."
Well, lets review this article. First we have a man, proven right in the past on his 'prediction' saying its 'risk premium' adding 20 bucks a barrell and that prices are still to rise.
Then we have a guy coming up saying risk premiums is a myth, but expect to pay 3.00 a gallon for a long time.
While I wont deny the price of oil has balanced the market of supply and demand, I also think that thats an obvious conclussion. Price will always balance the market. those that cant pay, dont get oil. leaving more for those that can. The markets gunna sell X number of barrells a day, regardless of whos buying them, wether 10 countries or 2 countries.
I think I will go with the first guy. The guy that has been proven right and still sticking his neck out there trying to wake up pple.
I wonder if we can file a class action law suit against oil companies and governments to make them lay all there cards on the table. I think its time we truely figured out how much of what is where and what that all means for us as consumers. With so many types of oil, sweet, sour, shale, tar sands etc... I would love to see a breakdown on all the various classes of oil we have and kow the extent that we can count on oil. It would just make things so much easier if we knew what we are dealing with. I think this is the one issue thats really screwing me up. I dont know when to move and in what direction. Its hard making plans bassed on assumptions that cant be proven or disproven till its way too late.
I really wish someone with info would grow a conscience and let us all know the down and dirty facts on this issue. SO much disinformation, inaccurate information and guesses out there.
Joined: Apr 17, 2005 Posts: 2680 Location: Vancouver Island
Posted: Fri Jul 21, 2006 10:00 am Post subject: Re: Another record 2
Fergus wrote:
I wonder if we can file a class action law suit against oil companies and governments to make them lay all there cards on the table. I think its time we truely figured out how much of what is where and what that all means for us as consumers. With so many types of oil, sweet, sour, shale, tar sands etc... I would love to see a breakdown on all the various classes of oil we have and kow the extent that we can count on oil.
How exactly do you propose we sue the Saudi Government into releasing what is classified as state secrets? We'll never know how much is there until we pulled it out and burnt it. The peak will be see from the downhill slope. _________________ shame on us, doomed from the start
god have mercy on our dirty little hearts
Posted: Fri Jul 21, 2006 2:14 pm Post subject: Re: Another record 2
strider3700 wrote:
Fergus wrote:
I wonder if we can file a class action law suit against oil companies and governments to make them lay all there cards on the table. I think its time we truely figured out how much of what is where and what that all means for us as consumers. With so many types of oil, sweet, sour, shale, tar sands etc... I would love to see a breakdown on all the various classes of oil we have and kow the extent that we can count on oil.
How exactly do you propose we sue the Saudi Government into releasing what is classified as state secrets? We'll never know how much is there until we pulled it out and burnt it. The peak will be see from the downhill slope.
I dunno how, thats why I am asking, or rather merely wondering. Wishful thinking maybe. I just wanna know for sure. Thats all. Is that really too much to ask?
Posted: Sat Jul 22, 2006 8:11 am Post subject: Re: Another record
Class Action?
Well, I'm no expert, but at a minimum:
1. You'd need subject matter and personal jurisdiction over the defendant(s) by US courts. Possible but highly unlikely to do this in any meaningful way against foreign sovereign producers (also issues like foreign sovereign immunity and venue to consider), but relatively easy to do this against a domestic oil major.
2. In order to gather a certifiable "class," you would need to identify a specific legal cause of action against the defendant that has a common issue of triable fact, AND where it would be prejudicial or impractical for each of the plaintiffs to bring individual suits. Just filing a suit for some kind of injunction to get them to "lay their cards on the table" doesn't cut it, but if you can find some kind of legal violation on their part, the only remedy for which is such an injunction, then you're in business.
Interesting idea, though. If you really want to bring Saudi Arabia into this, my hunch is that bringing a cause of action within the WTO (parterning with some poor, oil importing country who has standing to bring suit, possibly alleging that Saudi action is a "non-tarif barrier to trade"??) is the best bet--WTO littigation is a pretty murky area, though...
Posted: Sun Jul 23, 2006 5:59 pm Post subject: Re: Another record
Average US gas prices have hit an all-time high (yes; even higher than after Katrina), and even inflation-adjusted are higher than they've been since 1981. But never fear, they say this is as bad as it'll get.
Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged 9.6 million
barrels per day, or 1.9 percent above the same period last year.
Isn't this conflicting testimony confusing? Meanwhile, back in New Jersey (suburbia gone wild) people keep driving around with the A/C blasting going to the beach/mountains/amusement parks. And anyway, the only way most people can get to work is by driving 10,20,30,40 or more miles each way, they can't conserve until the bitter end. Expect higher prices this summer even without a hurricane. _________________ Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
"Although there are some refinery capacity problems, demand is not growing and probably is shrinking with gas at more than $3 a gallon, Lundberg said."
ahahah!!! just give us yer numbers lady!!!
Thanks and see ya next week!!!
Does reading "adjusted for inflation" make anyone else nauseous besides myself?
On another thread they question wether rising gas prices are "good" for PO.
I wonder how anyone could even question this.
Of course its good IF it creates real demand destruction and ultimately helps to keep as much oil in the ground as possible.
Our european counterparts probably have a more expressed opinion on high prices yet I bet most of them understand why their governments have made it that way.
Somewhere a "lurking" European is going "aw boo hoo" at hearing our cries..... I just know it!!!
All times are GMT - 6 Hours Goto page 1, 2, 3 ... 77, 78, 79Next
Page 1 of 79
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum
News
Discussions
Resources
Members
Forum FAQ
Search
Usergroups
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
