For a minute there I thought I had to get off my couch, when all the while the fact is we don't have to do anything much but keep things afloat for just a few decades more! In fact, we'd best shut up about PO, because if our offspring finds out we knew about it all along, they'll turn and wring our necks come 2036!
Posted: Wed Aug 02, 2006 9:55 pm Post subject: Is this debunking PO?
Ran across an article chronicalling the new Saudi Kings 1st year in power. The article mentions oil and then tries to debunk PO.
"Lost in the swirl of controversy surrounding this new analysis by some people of world energy dynamics is that few publications have noted that the accompanying scare was originally the result of writings by Matthew Simmons. The latter has been and remains a controversial source. Simmons’ analytical credentials, if not also his prognostic ones as well, are considered by many to be dubious given that he has long been an American investment banker based in Houston, Texas."
I found this an intersting read and from the totally other side of the coin perspective. I have no idea who the author is and whos paying him. But I thought I would throw it out there for your purusal and see what you thought!
Joined: Oct 18, 2004 Posts: 1724 Location: kiwibush
Posted: Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:32 pm Post subject: Re: Is this debunking PO?
Lemme see....let's paraphrase that.
Simmons, a successful oil industry banker has no basis, intellectual or experiential, to question swing producer, Saudi Arabia's declared oil reserves.
Sounds kinda absurd to me whichever way you look at it. Transparency means just that...the right to contemplate your industry transparently, irrespective of your speciality. Seems to me like Simmon's call is a fair one seeing as he hasn't a notion as to what's slushing beneath the ground in SA.
After all, its his business to know what's the state of his industry. Thats why he's Simmons the banker, and this jokers Dick the journo. _________________ Bugger me, I hear oil's runnin out mate!
Joined: Apr 28, 2006 Posts: 2897 Location: East Texas
Posted: Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:34 pm Post subject: Re: Is this debunking PO?
americandream wrote:
Lemme see....let's paraphrase that.
Simmons, a successful oil industry banker has no basis, intellectual or experiential, to question swing producer, Saudi Arabia's declared oil reserves.
No, I think their point is that Simmons has a lot to gain from high oil prices.
Posted: Thu Aug 03, 2006 2:50 am Post subject: Re: Is this debunking PO?
Everyone in the oil industry is out for money, and how many of them admit to peak oil?
Simmons just calls things as he sees them, you can see when he's interviewed hes' a straight talking guy, no bullshit. IMO he's also correct. _________________ "One minute I held the key, next the walls were closed on me, and I discovered that my castle stands upon pillars of salt and pillars of sand."
Joined: Oct 17, 2005 Posts: 68 Location: The Netherlands
Posted: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:36 am Post subject: Re: Is this debunking PO?
He is trying to discredit Simmons by claiming he is 'controversial' and 'dubious'. This a a common technique in arguments. If you can't question the statement, then try questioning the one that made the statement.
Simmons just happens to know quite a lot about past Texas oil production figures. Texas used to be the 'Saudi Arabia' until the 1960s. Now it is nothing but a shadow of itself. Since oil is finite, this will also happen one day to Saudi Arabia. Given that Saudi Arabia has not increased production in the last three years, while prices tripled, it is indeed questionable whether it still is the swing producer it used to be.
Posted: Thu Aug 03, 2006 7:07 am Post subject: Re: Is this debunking PO?
If have seen a recent study on Saudi drilling activity versus output. Unfortunately I lost the link, but the drilling activity has dramatically increased over the last 2 years while output remains flat.
That means they are pumping less and less per well, but are increasing the number of wells to keep the output stable. This could be the beginning of the end, at least as far as their higher grade crude is concerned.
Joined: Oct 12, 2004 Posts: 997 Location: In the suburban sea of strangers
Posted: Thu Aug 03, 2006 7:22 am Post subject: Re: Is this debunking PO?
Yoskie wrote:
If have seen a recent study on Saudi drilling activity versus output. Unfortunately I lost the link, but the drilling activity has dramatically increased over the last 2 years while output remains flat.
That means they are pumping less and less per well, but are increasing the number of wells to keep the output stable. This could be the beginning of the end, at least as far as their higher grade crude is concerned.
It would be interesting to look at a graph of Texas drilling activity vs. output in the 60's and 70's and compare it to a similar graph of Saudi activity vs. output today. _________________ The battle to preserve our lifestyle has already been lost. The battle to preserve our lives is just beginning.
Posted: Thu Aug 03, 2006 7:42 am Post subject: Re: Is this debunking PO?
After some googling I found a link similar to the one I had in mind:
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/gue/2006/0421.html
Yes, I would be very interesting to compare the recent development in SA to what went on in Texas from the late 60's to the late 70's. Any data on that?
Posted: Thu Aug 03, 2006 8:04 am Post subject: Re: Is this debunking PO?
It is somewhat naive to look at number of active rigs/wells and think that in some manner this should equate immediately to greater production. There are a number of key factors at play:
1. many of the rigs active are being used for recompletions, sidetracks from existing wells etc. This is mainly done in Saudi (according to the SPE literature) to manage water production from existing wells. As a consequence it would not increase overall oil volumes but rather maintain it. In certain areas they would also be drilling new injectors to improve the sweep efficiency.
2. rigs that are actually drilling new MRC wells in fields like Haradh III, Shaybah etc. do not result in immediate production. As an example at Haradh their plan was to drill all of the necessary MRC wells prior to bringing the field on back on stream. This is work, along with facilities expansion that has been ongoing for two years. Similarily at Shaybah they are apparently already working on the expansion which includes additional MRC wells, this expansion not anticipated to bring on new production until late 2007/early 2008. Drilling at Khurais already started in late 2005 and this field is not expected to be brought on stream until 2009.
3. In terms of new exploration Aramco is still focussing on drilling for additional gas reserves. I stay on top of the scout reports from Saudi and there have been few new exploration wells drilled in the past couple of years targeting oil.
4. Any new exploration for oil is guaranteed of having a minimum of 3 years between discovery and first production. It takes that long to drill appraisal wells, plan proper development, tender for services and commission facilities, water injection etc.
You cannot use West Texas experience as a direct analog to Saudi Arabia. The manner in which the Permian fields were developed is completely different from that seen in Saudi Arabia, a product of many companies competing for small leases and trying to extract as much oil as they could in a short period. Wells drilled by a small independant in West Texas would have been brought on stream immediately with the oil being trucked if necessary, simply to avoid competitive drainage. In Saudi there was no need to do this and since the nineties they have been paying close attention to reservoir maintainence. Not to say Saudi production won't peak, just not in the same manner as seen in Texas.
Posted: Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:42 am Post subject: Re: Is this debunking PO?
Quote:
Is this debunking PO?
Not at all. It merely questions who is right about Saudi reserves and when their peak will arrive.
As to peak oil itself, not in the slightest. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Thu Aug 03, 2006 12:40 pm Post subject: Re: Is this debunking PO?
Thanks rockdoc123 for those insights. I suppose SA's oil exploration is more a guessing game anyway since they're not very forthcoming with their data. Still, there appears to be increased activity as compared to years past.
Posted: Fri Aug 04, 2006 8:40 pm Post subject: Re: Is this debunking PO?
Yoskie wrote:
Yes, I would be very interesting to compare the recent development in SA to what went on in Texas from the late 60's to the late 70's. Any data on that?
Rockdoc makes a good point but in case you're still wondering:
The article is mostly focused on Qt and not so much the history of their respective production procedures, which leaves it pretty wide open for criticism.
Joined: Jun 02, 2004 Posts: 1078 Location: Bristol, UK
Posted: Sat Aug 05, 2006 12:21 am Post subject: Re: Is this debunking PO?
Yoskie wrote:
If have seen a recent study on Saudi drilling activity versus output. Unfortunately I lost the link, but the drilling activity has dramatically increased over the last 2 years while output remains flat.
That means they are pumping less and less per well, but are increasing the number of wells to keep the output stable. This could be the beginning of the end, at least as far as their higher grade crude is concerned.
Posted: Sat Aug 05, 2006 8:15 am Post subject: Re: Is this debunking PO?
John Anthony wrote:
Even now, relatively few people outside the publications and conferences where Simmons has argued this case would have known the frequency with which his contentions have been soundly rebutted by geologists, petroleum engineers, and oil reservoir technical specialists. These quite differently situated individuals and specialists, almost all of whom have had decades of firsthand experience working with the oil fields in question and whose work has required that they carefully monitor and report on such matters every day, all year round, continue to contest and argue the exact opposite of the “peak” oil theorists.
This suggests a lot of arguments against Simmon's contentions are being made by industry experts, and that these rebuttals are included in conference publications and proceedings. Might be interesting to read some of these arguments if they can be located.
Here is another article by historian Vaclav Smil that attempts to debunk the claims made by proponents of Peak Oil. Smil does not deny that a peak in global oil production will eventually occur, but is highly skeptical of the claims made of when it will occur and what the effect will be:
Peak Oil: A Catastrophist Cult and Complex Realities By Vaclav Smil
Vaclav Smil wrote:
These conclusions are based on interpretations that lack any nuanced understanding of the human quest for energy, disregard the role of prices, ignore any historical perspectives, and presuppose the end of human inventiveness and adaptability. I will raise just three key points aimed at dismantling the foundations of this new catastrophist cult. First, these preachings are just the latest installments in a long history of failed peak forecasts. Second, the peak-oil advocates argue that this time the circumstances are really different and that their forecasts will not fail—but in order to believe that, one has to ignore a multitude of facts and possibilities that readily counteract their claims. Third, and most importantly, there is no reason why even an early peak of global oil production should trigger any catastrophic events.
...
Energy transitions—from biomass to coal, from coal to oil, from oil to natural gas, from direct use of fuels to electricity—have stimulated technical advances and driven our inventiveness. Inevitably, they bring enormous challenges for both producers and consumers, necessitate the scrapping or reorganization of extensive infrastructures, are costly and protracted, and cause major socioeconomic dislocations. But they have created more productive and richer economies, and modern societies will not collapse just because we face yet another of these grand transformations.
I agree with the statement that Peak Oil is an energy transition rather than a catastrophic collapse of modern society. Enormous challenges exist that will cause major reorganization of the infrastructure and the way we live. But many positive things will also come out of it.
Joined: Jun 26, 2004 Posts: 1189 Location: Madison,Wisconsin
Posted: Sat Aug 05, 2006 9:36 am Post subject: Re: Is this debunking PO?
Quote:
But many positive things will also come out of it
It depends entirely on what your definition of positive is. I know a great deal of people who would look at the collapse of our culture as a postitive. So therefor, our culture could collapse, and still be a huge positive to them. Keep in mind, I said our culture, not civilization. I don't personally believe in a civilization collapse, I just think the culture that is left at the end will have hugely different functional differences. _________________ Azreal60
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum
News
Discussions
Resources
Members
Forum FAQ
Search
Usergroups
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
