I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Posted: Tue Aug 08, 2006 10:17 pm Post subject: Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation
MonteQuest wrote:
Who says it is?
Why, the dictionary.
Quote:
Main Entry: consumption
Part of Speech: noun
Definition: use
Synonyms: burning, consuming, damage, decay, decrease, depletion, desolation, destruction, devastation, diminution, dispersion, dissipation, drinking, eating, exhaustion, expenditure, loss, misuse, ruin, swallowing, utilization, waste
Quote:
Main Entry: supply
Part of Speech: noun
Definition: reserve
Synonyms: accumulation, amount, backlog, cache, fund, hoard, inventory, number, quantity, reservoir, source, stock, stockpile, store, surplus
Quote:
Main Entry: available
Part of Speech: adjective
Definition: ready
Synonyms: accessible, achievable, applicable, at hand, attainable, come-at-able*, convenient, derivable from, feasible, free, getable, gettable, handy, obtainable, on deck*, on hand*, on tap*, open to, possible, prepared, procurable, purchasable, reachable, realizable, securable, serviceable, usable, vacant
Consumption is the use of an amount, or supply, per unit time. Supply is how much there is.
MonteQuest wrote:
And the money you saved was spent on other energy consumption, or the money you saved was borrowed by someone to consume energy. The Rebound Effect.
But Jevon's Paradox is only about individual resources with respect to themselves.
Aaron wrote:
Chapter Seven of The Coal Question was entitled "Of the Economy of Fuel." Here he argued that increased efficiency in using a natural resource, such as coal, only resulted in increased demand for that resource, not a reduction in demand.
Jevon wrote:
As a rule, the new modes of economy will lead to an increase of consumption according to a principle recognized in many parallel instances…. The same principles apply, with even greater force and distinctiveness to the use of such a general agent as coal. It is the very economy of its use which leads to its extensive consumption….
Notice "parallel instances", if Jevon were making a statement about the interdependence of all energy consumption, then this paradox would be a bit more complex.
Last edited by omgwtfbyobbq on Tue Aug 08, 2006 10:23 pm; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Tue Aug 08, 2006 10:18 pm Post subject: Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation
omgwtfbyobbq wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:
I asked for hard data, not an anecdote.
That is hard data. My insurance company has records of my mileage and vehicle efficiency is exhibitory.
No, that is anecdotal evidence. It is based upon personal experience or unverified by a controlled data study. It is also a micro-example. I want to see macro-economical data to refute the EIA data I offered to support my position.
And since:
Quote:
"In the economics literature it is … well known that increased efficiency in the use of a resource leads over time to greater use of that resource and not less use of it" This might explain, for instance, why there appears to be no example of a developed society that has succeeded in combining sustained reductions in energy consumption with economic growth. Mr Alan Meier, of the IEA, referred to "several countries that, for brief periods, reduced their electricity consumption or their energy consumption"—often in response to short-term supply crises—but such reductions in demand have never been sustained. This does not mean that sustained reductions in energy consumption are impossible—simply that it is yet to be demonstrated that they are possible
I doubt that you can. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Tue Aug 08, 2006 10:21 pm Post subject: Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation
omgwtfbyobbq wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:
Who says it is?
Why, the dictionary.
Of course. Your point? _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Tue Aug 08, 2006 10:29 pm Post subject: Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation
Here's a nice marcoeconomic example. The US supply of crude oil peaked in ~1971 iirc, at this point the consumption of US crude was maximal. After 1971 vehicle efficiency increased, but consumption of US crude decreased. There was no more US crude, there was less US crude, so consumption could not increase, it could only decrease.
MonteQuest wrote:
I doubt that you can.
Doubt all you want. Consumption cannot increase if there is no more to consume. A peak means that consumption must decrease because there is not as much to consume.
Posted: Tue Aug 08, 2006 10:32 pm Post subject: Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation
omgwtfbyobbq wrote:
But Jevon's Paradox is only about individual resources with respect to themselves.
No, it is about the macro-economical effect. The Rebound effect takes up where Jevon's leaves off.
Look, you can dispute Jevon's until the cows come home, but until you provide hard data to support your position, that's all it is: a dispute.
Try refuting the data I provided.
We know it wasn't population growth alone that caused it.
_________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Tue Aug 08, 2006 10:33 pm Post subject: Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation
MonteQuest wrote:
omgwtfbyobbq wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:
Who says it is?
Why, the dictionary.
Of course. Your point?
You asked, "Who says it is?"
Broadly speaking, I suppose it's that Jevon's Paradox cannot apply post peak. That consumption is not the same thing as supply or availability. Just because a large increase in efficiency can increase the relative supply on the market, does not mean it increases consumption, which is what Jevon's Paradox is about.
Posted: Tue Aug 08, 2006 10:42 pm Post subject: Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation
MonteQuest wrote:
No, it is about the macro-economical effect. The Rebound effect takes up where Jevon's leaves off.
Look, you can dispute Jevon's until the cows come home, but until you provide hard data to support your position, that's all it is: a dispute.
What's not hard data? Automobile efficiency increased after 1971, it's on your graph. US crude peaked around 1971, with the supply, and consumption of supply decreasing since then.
So which is it, that automobile efficiency never increased after 1971, or that consumption of US crude never decreased. If that's the case why would we worry about peak oil. If consumption of US crude hasn't decreased since 1971, then it's either increased or is constant, in that case, we have no worries about peak.
Posted: Tue Aug 08, 2006 10:48 pm Post subject: Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation
omgwtfbyobbq wrote:
Here's a nice marcoeconomic example. The US supply of crude oil peaked in ~1971 iirc, at this point the consumption of US crude was maximal. After 1971 vehicle efficiency increased, but consumption of US crude decreased. There was no more US crude, there was less US crude, so consumption could not increase, it could only decrease.
But only for a while. The decrease came at the industrial level. In fact, auto fuel use never decreased; it increased. Google the data. And as you see from the chart I posted, that didn't last long.
Which is what Jevon's says, "over time."
Quote:
Doubt all you want. Consumption cannot increase if there is no more to consume. A peak means that consumption must decrease because there is not as much to consume.
Saying this doesn't equate hard data to support your position. You are back to disputing Jevon's without data to support your position.
As I have said a dozen times:
Montequest wrote:
However, if supply declines faster than efficiency gains, then the price won't drop.
Why is this so hard for you to grasp?
Overall net consumption cannot increase, but consumption of what you gain by efficiency gains will increase as you lower the price by increasing available supply.
If efficiency gains don't offset decline, then they are useless to solve peakoil, and if they do offset decline and increase the supply, then the lower price will increase the consumption up to the available limit or people's ability to acquire it. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Tue Aug 08, 2006 10:49 pm Post subject: Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation
Although, before peak. Jevon's Paradox is spot on. If I have a resource, I want to sell as much of it to as many people as possible to maximize profit, so of course, economically speaking, anything to encourage increased consumption (and profit) will be encouraged, including increases in efficiency. After peak, the ratio of supply and demand changes, so in order to make profit I don't need to push my product as much, just sell it, because demand has increased the price, and my profit.
Posted: Tue Aug 08, 2006 10:54 pm Post subject: Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation
omgwtfbyobbq wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:
omgwtfbyobbq wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:
Who says it is?
Why, the dictionary.
Of course. Your point?
You asked, "Who says it is?"
This is a game for you, isn't it? I asked what your point was in saying this. It's gibberish.
Quote:
Just because a large increase in efficiency can increase the relative supply on the market, does not mean it increases consumption, which is what Jevon's Paradox is about.
So, if you put something on sale, people won't buy more of it?
Post hard data to support your position.
Even the House of Parliament acknowledges that economic history says otherwise. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Tue Aug 08, 2006 10:56 pm Post subject: Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation
MonteQuest wrote:
But only for a while. The decrease came at the industrial level. In fact, auto fuel use never decreased; it increased. Google the data. And as you see from the chart I posted, that didn't last long.
But this is about US crude consumption, which has never increased, only decreased since 1971 because supply has only decreased since 1971.
MonteQuest wrote:
]Overall net consumption cannot increase, but consumption of what you gain by efficiency gains will increase as you lower the price by increasing available supply.
But Jevon never stated anything about relative consumption, Just consumption. And the rapid, almost exponential increase in consumption until peak.
MonteQuest wrote:
If efficiency gains don't offset decline, then they are useless to solve peakoil, and if they do offset decline and increase the supply, then the lower price will increase the consumption up to the available limit or people's ability to acquire it.
Eh, there are other sources that can provide much more energy than the ones we use for transportation currently. But you may not agree... so until PO really sets in, and we see what happens, it's a tomatoe tomato deal.
MonteQuest wrote:
This is a game for you, isn't it? I asked what your point was in saying this. It's gibberish.
I told you, explicitly at first, and on a broad view later in the post.
MonteQuest wrote:
So, if you put something on sale, people won't buy more of it?
I never disagreed with this, which I've stated before. If I initially put some fuel on sale, then it is before the peak in supply and consumption, so of course Jevon's Paradox applies. After peak it does not.
Posted: Tue Aug 08, 2006 11:06 pm Post subject: Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation
omgwtfbyobbq wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:
But only for a while. The decrease came at the industrial level. In fact, auto fuel use never decreased; it increased. Google the data. And as you see from the chart I posted, that didn't last long.
But this is about US crude consumption, which has never increased, only decreased since 1971 because supply has only decreased since 1971.
You forget Prudhoe Bay and imports?
_________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Tue Aug 08, 2006 11:08 pm Post subject: Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation
omgwtfbyobbq wrote:
If I initially put some fuel on sale, then it is before the peak in supply and consumption, so of course Jevon's Paradox applies. After peak it does not.
So, efficiency gains won't increase supply? _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Tue Aug 08, 2006 11:12 pm Post subject: Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation
omgwtfbyobbq wrote:
Eh, there are other sources that can provide much more energy than the ones we use for transportation currently. But you may not agree... so until PO really sets in, and we see what happens, it's a tomatoe tomato deal.
None that can be scaled up in time. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
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