Would a registered user here please forward the guts of this message (or copy/paste, or paraphrase, or whatever) to one or two of the high-ranking forums, the ones where registration is required. I can't register because I don't have email right now. I already tried to ask this question solely in this forum, but it got no significant response. It needs exposure to a more serious breed of activists.
---- BEGIN GUTS OF MESSAGE ----Would someone with email access to Jay Hanson and/or Richard Duncan please inquire about the status of this report: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/the_dieof ... ssage/1706

I'm worried that it might never see the light of day because Jay says he's getting too old to continue his activities, and Richard is (correct me if I'm wrong) even older and possibly forgetful and, well, bless them both, they've earned the right to do whatever they want, but us youngsters can't help being impatient sometimes.---- END GUTS OF MESSAGE ----

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Duncan predicts an energy "slide" of 0.67%/year from 2000 to 2011. Although we're almost five years into that period, energy *consumption* per capita appears to have risen in that time. Couldn't find per capita stats for production but they should be parallel, right?

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/total.html

Duncan writes, 'The Olduvai 'slide' from 2001 to 2011 (Figure 4) may resemble the "Great Depression" of 1929 to 1939: unemployment, breadlines, and homelessness.' I don't think we're quite there yet.

I have heard that Duncan plans to revise his dates, making the date of "permanent blackouts" 2007 instead of 2012. What is his rationale for this? What is meant by, "permanent blackouts?"

If someone more familiar with Duncan's writing can point me to an explanation of why he believes blackouts will be global in scale, rapid, and permanent, I would appreciate it.

Licho:

Well this theory certainly is a weird one.. In my country, energy production (including that per capita) halved during ninetees, while life conditions, agriculture and industry efficiency and environment improved a lot

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My answer:

The standard of living for Czechland didn't fall too much because there were somebody else who was willing to sell energy to that country.

If you don't produce, you buy it from somebody else (like Czechland's case) or you go without.

Duncan's theory basically tells that by that year there would be nobody who would be willing or able to sell energy in a significant quantity to prevent a general debacle.

Understand now?

I would think there would be a threshold. Energy per capita declines can be managed to a certain point. In other words, excessive energy per capita nations can slide by becoming more efficient before crossing the threshold. Once the threshold is crossed, the negative effects of energy depletion start to take their toll.

What is the threshold? I don’t know.

How much energy does it take to feed 6.5 billion? I don’t know.

Of course, the energy per capita would be a barometer of sorts…an indicator but not an absolute measurement of our current march towards a die off.

Take 10 fat Americans. Put them in a room. Give them their usual diet. Reduce the diet by %5 each day. For a few days they will remain healthy. Eventually, they will all starve to death. I am not suggesting the entire world will starve to death. However, I think the majority of people will.

Of course, all countries will not want to share their food & recourses. Hording (for lack of a better term) by countries will lead to pockets of die offs and pockets of survival.

Guest, I made mistake, energy consumption halved, not production (production actually risen up). Industrial energy consumption is the one that caused decline in total energy consumption. Yet despite the fact, that whole country now consumes 1/2 of what 15 years ago, GDP (=production) is on steady rise, and life conditions as well as ecology footprint are improving all the time. It's simply because of the fact, that industry in soviet era was concentrated on energy-intensive manufacturing for eastern block (machinery, weapons etc..). Now that crap is not produced anymore.

So olduvai theory doesn't work in all cases. Society might be producing "useless" crap that does not improve life conditions but is wasting huge ammounts of energy..

Jato, there is enough renewable energy already in place to ensure 3rd world living conditions for everyone on this planet
Even pre-industrial agriculture without machinery and fertilizers is able to feed 2 billions of people, and this will never go that far.

I am the 'Guest' who mentioned the sale of energy.

Licho:
> GDP (=production) is on steady rise, and life conditions as well as ecology footprint are improving all the time.
>It's simply because of the fact, that industry in soviet era was concentrated on energy-intensive manufacturing for eastern block (machinery, weapons etc..). Now that crap is not produced anymore.

That's very nice. But it's a one-time bonus. As Czechland gets richer, people would want more cars, right?

And where does the fuel to run the remaining industries come from? My guess is probably the same country which had ordered Czechland to make all these crap to begin with.


The Visegrad countries are neither large producers nor consumers of energy. Coal is the single abundant fossil fuel in the region, with only Poland and the Czech Republic having significant quantities. The Visegrad countries therefore import most of their crude oil and natural gas requirements, mainly from Russia. The exceptions are Poland
and Hungary, which met roughly 39% and 24% of their natural gas consumption demand with domestic sources in 2001

What happens if Russia decides to shut off the crude supply? AFAIK Russia's oil will peak within a few years.


>So olduvai theory doesn't work in all cases. Society might be producing "useless" crap that does not improve life conditions but is wasting huge ammounts of energy..

That's very nice. Except it's just a big respite which might buy some more time. The fundamentals don't change.

Cool. Where can I explore this idea?





But wait...3rd world living conditions...does this mean the end of industrial society? What types of living conditions do you foresee?

What do you mean? Energy generation is mostly nuclear, uranium is from Russia (as a Russian debt repayment), local resoureces mined out already, coal is indigenous and it's use is in decline. But thanks to decline of consumption, only 1/2 of capacity is used and electricity is exported.
Major industry here is still energy intensive, like steel, heavy machinery and cars production. So it's not energy offset by imports from other countries. (If it was high value-low energy intensive industry, like IT, it would explain drop in energy consumption, but it is not.)



It is one time bonus, but it doesnt matter, fact is, that energy used by population and industry here decreased over last one and half decade. In Olduvai theory, only energy consumption (availibility of energy) per capita is important. And this number is falling here, while living conditions are improving. This just shows, that olduvai theory cannot be taken seriously.
If Russia suddenly stops oil exports here, it would be a problem, but this is not related to odluvai theory.

If there is room for society, to cut energy consumption by 1/2 or even 1/4 as some suggest, while still maintaining similar living conditions, it means that Olduvai theory is not valid, and society can use renewable sources to provide energy.

Didn't russia already peak in 1987 or so?

Jato, I used info about per capita energy consumption from http://earthtrends.wri.org/text/energy-resources/variable-351.html

It shows that per capita energy consumption of USA is 10x higher than per capita energy consumption of developing countries. Considering all hydro+other renewables production in USA, you have renewable energy already in place to provide standard much better than is current standard of developing countries..

Thank you Licho.

Of course there are the problems of transportation energy, energy needed for economic growth, energy needed for food & water production/transportation & 300 million people not wanting to give up their cushy lifestyle to live like the 3rd world.


Sorry, I am in the Jay Hanson/Montequest camp. We are going to crash hard! But keep trying to sway me, I am listening.

Yes, there will be massive problems, but not a starvation.

Take a look at this profile of USA:
http://earthtrends.wri.org/pdf_library/country_profiles/Ene_cou_840.pdf

It shows, that your renewables provide 7x more energy than is consumed by aggriculture..

So while transportation and industry might be scaled back, it wont mean starvation. It could also mean healthier and better life style. If you produce high-tech consumer electronics instead of SUV, you are using miniscule ammount ofl energy per value of goods. (My guess is it's going to be about 1/10, but didnt check real numbers). Economic growth is still possible in conditions of declining energy.. Just expect to loose some goods/services in favor of others..

>Energy generation is mostly nuclear, uranium is from Russia (as a Russian debt repayment),

And we need O-I-L to extract that uranium, right?

> local resoureces mined out already, coal is indigenous and it's use is in decline. But thanks to decline of consumption, only 1/2 of capacity is used and electricity is exported.

For now. yes.

It is possible for some locales to enjoy temporary advantage in a PO environment. Unfortunately soon your more powerful neighbors will want you to 'share' that.

It's history. Remember Sudetenland, or whatever it's called now in Czech language?

>It is one time bonus, but it doesnt matter,

It matters, like a one time lottery.

>fact is, that energy used by population and industry here decreased over last one and half decade. In Olduvai theory, only energy consumption (availibility of energy) per capita is important. And this number is falling here, while living conditions are improving. This just shows, that olduvai theory cannot be taken seriously.

If Czechland is an autarky, or a closed system, your theory will suffice. But Czechland is an open country, like all other countries in Europe.

Whatever Czechland may do, it cannot remain unaffected by events outside of it.

Sooner or later the uranium imports from Russia will stop. And how do you rebuild the nuclear plants after their life ends? You would need P-E-T-R-O-L-E-U-M.

>If Russia suddenly stops oil exports here, it would be a problem, but this is not related to odluvai theory.

>If there is room for society, to cut energy consumption by 1/2 or even 1/4 as some suggest, while still maintaining similar living conditions, it means that Olduvai theory is not valid, and society can use renewable sources to provide energy

That's very nice. Except it's impossible to cut energy consumption by 1/2 or less and still maintain similar living conditions, because the financial institutions will collapse.