Joined: Mar 02, 2006 Posts: 1194 Location: England
Posted: Wed May 31, 2006 2:51 am Post subject: Accurate data for the Caspian area?
A few years back the Caspian Sea was going to be "the future Saudia Arabia".
Is this still on the cards? Or has the hope faded away?
Also, do the neigbouring countries have significant - and validated - reserves?
Googling leads to confusing results - does anyone have an up-to-date clear picture of the role of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan etc?
I am interested to see if production growth in this region will "feed" China's growth for a few decades, relieving pressure elsewhere. _________________ Technology will save us!
Posted: Wed May 31, 2006 12:34 pm Post subject: Re: Accurate data for the Caspian area?
I would say it's a state(s) secret.
Any wind that there is plenty, and NGO money would be flooding in. Any democratically elected leader that didn't sing the American national anthem, would immediately be given a color revolution, for democracy? no, for American democracy.
Despite that I would agree with Simmons that we need a World wide audit, I think that would be dangerous... Because that audit would lead to external manipulation, more visions of wmd here and there... and the next PNAC nut job would be waiting and hoping for the next 9/11 to motive the population into some invasion...
Let's just assume peak is here, and plan for the worse. And let each region protect it's own energy resources, let each audit for it's own planning. America assumes we need to do this collectively, like some UNION to save the world when in facts it's America that is at jeopardy. China will get plenty of energy because she has something of value to trade, her exports. The nations that are at risk are those that are designed improperly (suburbia & SUV) and contribute little in the form of trade. US debt is not trade. Moving energy 12,000 miles is stupid, consume it local and let flourishing economies grow by proxy to energy.
What's in the Caspian is nobody's business but those countries there.
Posted: Mon Sep 18, 2006 3:20 pm Post subject: Re: Accurate data for the Caspian area?
SoothSayer wrote:
A few years back the Caspian Sea was going to be "the future Saudia Arabia".
.
It won't. it has sizeable reserves however. it was not much explored by the soviets because it was easier for them to increase production in western siberia.
Kashagan in the Kazzakh sector has about 13 Gb (billion barrels) of reserves, it's one of the largest untapped fields in the world. According to ASPO, whose estimates are pessimistic, Kazakhstan has 50 Gb of original reserves, and only 6 have been used so far. Probably, of all country with dozens of Gb's of reserves, Kazakhstan is the less depleted one.
Azerbaijan is severly depleted as faras onshore areas are concerned, but offshsore production is only starting. Production jumped in recent years and the country will soon export ~1 Mb/d.
The russian side have not been much explored, but a few good finds have been made, including on oshore gas giants. (astrahan) discovered long ago but not exploited.
Turkmenistan have some sizeable fields, exploited for long. Iranian sector is unexplored, nodoby knows whether there is a big potentiel.
Overall, there may be 100 Gb to be produced there.
BUT :
It's very low grade oil, with extremely high sulfur ratio. Tengiz crude in Kazakhstan can only be exported after sulfur have been removed.
Also the fields are very deep (often >3000 meters, while persian fulg fields are less than 1500 m deep), what means high pressure, high temperature.
The climatic conditions are extreme. The area is landlocked, making export difficult and costly.
There are political problems too.
All this explains that exploration is progressing quite slowly, and that many projects are well behind shedule. kashagan is several years late, it should already be onstream.
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