Joined: Oct 23, 2005 Posts: 1800 Location: East of Eden
Posted: Mon Nov 27, 2006 5:39 pm Post subject: Converging Catastrophes
a summary and a question
The purpose of this post is to create a thread in which different aspects of the sustainability crisis the human race is facing may be discussed in relation to each other. Each of the crises listed below has been discussed on this site individually; but I wanted to create a thread in which they're all listed together, since I believe they're related, and since we're unfortunately going to have to deal with all of them shortly. I've chosen the Environment forum for this thread, as I believe that peak oil, along with the other issues discussed, is an issue of sustainability. And I have a question.
1. Peak Oil (and the Olduvai Gorge). This is the main topic of this site, and we're all pretty familiar with the concept of nonrenewable energy source depletion. Given the lack of scalable alternatives to hydrocarbon energy sources such as petroleum and natural gas, our transportation, shipping, electricity production, car culture and global economy are all in serious trouble. Substitutability guarantees that all energy sources and end products will be impacted. The trouble is not short-term: it has been theorized that our current globalized financial capitalist system relies on interest and constant growth, and cannot conceivably continue without increasing energy production -- which peak oil makes impossible. So it could be a long, long ride down into the dark. (This depression should also do a good job of making sure we don't have the fiscal resources to deal with the other crises effectively, and possibly even discourage any attempt.) Hydrocarbon depletion also carries significant worries concerning food production (not to mention shipping); not only in the loss of soil inputs, but also in the economic competition of food production with biofuels production. Per-capita grain production is already faltering, a trend that can only get worse after the peak. There are questions as to whether our global population can continue at its current level after the peak, and resource wars have arguably already begun. (No links -- search this site.)
2. Global Warming. It's been argued whether humans are to blame for it. I believe we are, but the bottom line is that one way or the other it's happening. Greenland is toast, and so is the Amazon (which gets much of its water from the disappearing glaciers of the Andes). Coastlines will change and ecosystems around the world will be altered irrevocably. There will be massive numbers of coastal refugees. We've all seen the news. I won't go on. (No links -- read your newspaper.)
3. Desertification, salinization and loss of arable topsoil. The Middle East is already lost. China is going up in dust; the Sahara is spreading rapidly; cropland is degrading in Central Asia, South America and Mexico. Arable topsoil is slowly disappearing, from both agriculture-caused erosion and conversion to urban and suburban use, a loss that may well accelerate when peak oil reduces the amount of fossil fuel inputs to the soil.
4. Loss of biodiversity. We depend upon the stability and productivity of the natural world; and the stability and productivity of the natural world depend on biodiversity. We are seeing the sixth great extinction in the history of the planet, and it's happening way faster than the others. Forget for the moment the staggering tragedy of losing so much of the natural beauty of the wild. Think instead of the fact that we claim something on the order of thirty trillion dollars worth of goods and services from the natural world every single year. As biodiversity crashes, these goods and services will become increasingly unreliable, as ecosystems around the world become increasingly prone to boom-and-bust cycles. We may see the ecological collapse of one region... after another... after another. More refugees.
5. Aquifer drawdown. And oh, this one is a killer, though most are still unaware of it. China, India and parts of Africa are already facing a potable water crisis for their populations that no one seems to have a solution for. (We're waiting to find out what's going to happen with Australia's great drought.) In some parts of the world, water tables are falling by several meters every year. In the United States, parts of the Ogalalla aquifer have dropped over thirty meters. Seventy percent of the water we pump goes to irrigation. And just like oil, water will only become more expensive and difficult to pump post-peak. The topic of oil resource wars comes up quite a bit here; but we may see a day when potable water is worth far more than petroleum in some parts of the world. This by itself is conceivably a catastrophe of epic proportions.
6. The death of the world's oceans. This is scary. Not only in the decimation of the world's fisheries, though that is bad enough -- a huge part of humanity depends on seafood for survival -- but even more fundamentally in the acidification of the world's oceans. The oceans are absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere at a staggering rate, and will continue to do so for decades, even if we were to cease all emissions tomorrow morning. (As with the extinction event, we're definitely causing this: believe in anthropogenically-caused global warming or not, as ye will; but there's no question that CO2 is acidifying the oceans.) Phytoplankton are the very foundation of the marine food web, and we're attacking them. How bad would it get if this level of the web were to collapse? Fertilizer and partially-treated sewage runoff in massive amounts is also leading to a resurgence of the primordial and highly toxic bacteria that once ruled the anaerobic seas; and with lessened competition from decimated fish populations, the bacteria are now making another go of it. The oceans may be fundamentally changed by the halfway point of this century. And this will certainly have a massive impact on us.
There are other topics not covered here, but related: general environmental degradation, including deforestation, chemical pollution, sulfur dioxide, etc. But those listed above, I think, are the biggies.
---
The reason all this is so alarming is that the convergence of these crises looks to be pretty tight, with all of them hitting us pretty hard within the next half-century or so. (Note, from the links: desertification: "should present trends continue, within 30 to 40 years, over half of the African continent, much of Central Asia, the majority of southern and eastern South America, most of central and western North America and about 90 percent of Australia will become desert"; biodiversity: "up to one-fifth of all living species could disappear within 30 years"; aquifer drawdown: "nearly all the 3 billion people to be added by 2050 being born in developing countries where water is already scarce"; oceans: "Seafood May Be Gone by 2048"; peak oil: probable near-term, definitely within 30 years; global warming: 10 years to act, 30 years for drastic effects to be felt.)
Can we possibly deal with all these things at the same time? Any one of them would be a challenge. Some are already making themselves felt: energy scarcity and global warming have been making some headlines. I've referred to the current era as being 'the most interesting of all times' (both as in the Chinese curse, and as bittersweet candy for news junkies like me). I don't think the human race has ever faced a situation like this before. Possibly the Toba eruption, which nearly extincted us. But certainly not since the advent of civilization.
I believe that all of these catastrophes have the same underlying causes: exponential growth, human overpopulation, social overcomplexity, short-term thinking, an overconsumptive lifestyle, hubris, greed, ignorance and apathy. But my question in this thread is not about causes so much as solutions. Solutions to individual crises have been addressed in various threads here; but a possible solution to one crisis tends to ignore or possibly even negatively impact another. For instance, biofuels might (always assuming a positive EROEI, of course) help mitigate somewhat the effects of peak oil; but the production of same carries significant threats to biodiversity and food production. Coal production also might help with energy scarcity (for a while), but is far too risky in its impact on global warming. Switching to wind and solar power helps with global warming, but really doesn't scalably address peak oil. Family planning and education can reduce birth rates, but the associated increase in lifestyle tends to lead to higher per capita consumption.
So, my question: first of all, is there a solution or basket of solutions that can possibly address this storm we're facing? Or is it so late in the game that the opportunities have slipped by us one by one, and we'll now be forced to simply sit tight and hope to weather the times ahead? And, of course, if you believe solutions exist, then what are they? Some may believe that an education-driven paradigm shift will enable us to change our ways in time. Some might mention powerdown, permaculture or a switch to nuclear energy. Others, such as Derrick Jensen, believe that civilization is destructive and unsustainable by its very nature, and any solution must include bringing it down.
I'm interested in any responses. I don't particularly like being a doomer.
Gerald O. Barney wrote:
What we do in this century will be remembered forever - or not at all.
So -- what do we do? _________________ "If a path to the better there be, it begins with a full look at the worst." — Thomas Hardy
Posted: Mon Nov 27, 2006 5:53 pm Post subject: Re: Converging Catastrophes
First, please accept my compliments on a succinct, cogent list of the problems ahead.
I think there are only two solutions -
1) Massive powerdown, accept that we can never again enjoy an energy rich, abundant lifestyle, and accept that we cannot permit population growth.
2) Massive dieoff, and rigidly enforced population limits.
Neither will happen.
So - barring some miracle, whether of the religious or scientific sort, we must conclude that we are in overshoot, that the overshoot will get worse, and that the resulting dieoff will be substantial. My expectation is that we'll see humankind's numbers reduced to about a billion total, perhaps less.
Joined: Oct 23, 2005 Posts: 1800 Location: East of Eden
Posted: Mon Nov 27, 2006 6:52 pm Post subject: Re: Converging Catastrophes
Ludi wrote:
Solutions exist but won't be implemented on a meaningful scale.
Not sure what else there is to say about that....
I'm interested. What solutions do you think exist? Is it permaculture?
And by saying we won't implement them, are you agreeing with Jensen that civilization is inherently unsustainable? _________________ "If a path to the better there be, it begins with a full look at the worst." — Thomas Hardy
Joined: Dec 02, 2005 Posts: 6429 Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
Posted: Mon Nov 27, 2006 7:03 pm Post subject: Re: Converging Catastrophes
coyote wrote:
Others, such as Derrick Jensen, believe that civilization is destructive and unsustainable by its very nature, and any solution must include bringing it down.
coyote wrote:
...So -- what do we do?
Jack wrote:
...we'll see humankind's numbers reduced to about a billion total, perhaps less.
Perhaps a lot less, according to Lovelock.
There's your answer, coyote. We're going to regress. We're going to roll back the clock. Hello, fifteenth century: We're coming back to you. We're going to re-establish a sustainable way of life on this planet, and we're going to do it the hardest way imaginable.
We're going to starve to death by the billions, and slaughter each other by the millions in one horrendous war after another, and succumb to disease in vast numbers as well.
We have too many monstrous problems bearing down on us at once, as you have so concisely and accurately described above. We are not capable of rationally doing what we need to do to save ourselves. We don't have it in us. We certainly don't have the political leadership to lead us in the right directions.
Oh, we'll survive as a species. Two hundred years from now, after The Great Come-Uppance, the survivors will be eking out a very simple way of life in a severely damaged, but recovering, biosphere. They will have learned the horrible lessons, and they'll be fanatical about sustainability and leaving tiny footprints.
Maybe they'll be better people for it. _________________ "Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
Joined: Oct 23, 2005 Posts: 1800 Location: East of Eden
Posted: Mon Nov 27, 2006 7:09 pm Post subject: Re: Converging Catastrophes
Thanks Jack. I agree that we're certainly in overshoot, and some way must be found to reduce our numbers and consumption. Hopefully we'll find a way to do it with some grace, though I can't see how right now. _________________ "If a path to the better there be, it begins with a full look at the worst." — Thomas Hardy
Joined: Dec 03, 2004 Posts: 1165 Location: Seattle, Wa.
Posted: Mon Nov 27, 2006 7:09 pm Post subject: Re: Converging Catastrophes
We are too far gone to expect solutions to bring us back to some pre-existing state like say 50 years ago where all the imbalances are corrected. We are now entering unchartered waters where we will have to ride the tsunami that we are creating. That does not mean that we are heading toward an inevitable collapse even though it certainly looks likely when you really digest the impacts of the problems you mentioned above. What I always like to mention as a type of silver lining to this depressing scenario is that as we reach tipping points of disruption there will be painful consequences that will exert an enormous pressure on our culture and actually start the process to mold or transform our values.
Surviving the calamities ahead could force us into sustainable practices where today there is no political, economic or cultural impetus to do so. (Of course if the consequences are so severe that our institutions collapse than we will have all out anarchy. In that case we wont even have the time to contemplate our future let alone ponder on how stupid we have been. We will be thrust into the moment of raw survival!).
I think it is a safe prediction that during the next decade we will experience strong enough disruptive events that we can witness and hopefully influence a collective awakening toward the need to adapt cultural values toward sustainability. Maybe.
But long term human induced imbalances to our ecosystems and biosphere are already well underway. The resiliency of ecosystems will be further weakened, species diversity will decline globally and human quality of life in an overpopulated world will further decline.
To witness this and understand what is unfolding is really psychology distressing. For how to cope with this I like to also suggest to adapt a dual time reference, deep time and short term time philosophy.
Deep time: For the damage already done and the irreplacable loss of species and destruction to our environment, switch over to deep time in your mind and understand that geologically this is a blip on the screen and our planet will recuperate biodiversity and resiliency given enough time.
Short Term Time: Make it a singular obsession to do everything in your power to live sustainably and educate those around you to encourage a collective awakening of the perilous reality of the times we live in.
If you can live with both of these time references you can rise above the distress and actually be proactive. Until the rest of our society gets it there is nothing else really to do. I personally look forward to disruptions as they are the best catalysts toward change that we have at the moment since that is the only force to break the status quo of denial we live in. _________________ Our resiliency resembles an invasive weed. We are the Kudzu Ape
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 12582 Location: zombie horde wonderland
Posted: Mon Nov 27, 2006 7:14 pm Post subject: Re: Converging Catastrophes
coyote wrote:
I'm interested. What solutions do you think exist? Is it permaculture?
And by saying we won't implement them, are you agreeing with Jensen that civilization is inherently unsustainable?
Permaculture is a solution, but permaculture isn't "civilization." Civilization is inherently unsustainable. I agree with Derrick Jensen.
The reason I say these solutions won't be implemented is because people who buy into the idea of civilization see it as the right way to live, the ultimate expression of humanity (rather than just one way some humans live, among many other ways), and the ultimate good. Very hard to get people to give up something they see as the ultimate good. _________________ No original ideas are contained in this post.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5922 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Mon Nov 27, 2006 7:15 pm Post subject: Re: Converging Catastrophes
Well done summary.
I believe that a coordinated response should be given to these problems, but the nature of the emergency will cause chaos and prevent a well considered solution. For example, world grain stocks are presently so low that there could be widespread famine in as little as two years.
Will in a few years the US (for example) be willing use its post peak (in North America) NG supplies, and possibly post peak oil(worldwide), to grow extra grain (if possible) and/or reduce corn used for ethanol, or ship needed grain around the world? There are no easy answers to these questions, and these are only the beginning of many inter-related problems.
Joined: Oct 23, 2005 Posts: 1800 Location: East of Eden
Posted: Mon Nov 27, 2006 7:20 pm Post subject: Re: Converging Catastrophes
Zardoz wrote:
Two hundred years from now, after The Great Come-Uppance, the survivors will be eking out a very simple way of life in a severely damaged, but recovering, biosphere. They will have learned the horrible lessons, and they'll be fanatical about sustainability and leaving tiny footprints.
Maybe they'll be better people for it.
Enforced paradigm shift. One way or the other we're going to live sustainably... the big question is whether we do it by choice, or if it is done to us as a result of our irresponsible behavior. If you're right (and I have no argument against what you said... we are indeed in overshoot, and for now at least are not taking any of the steps we need to take to correct the imbalance), then I hate to think about all we're going to destroy in the next decades. _________________ "If a path to the better there be, it begins with a full look at the worst." — Thomas Hardy
Joined: May 02, 2005 Posts: 3429 Location: Oh really?
Posted: Mon Nov 27, 2006 7:24 pm Post subject: Re: Converging Catastrophes
this summer I will host a doomer party, I think. That is if the convergence hasn't slapped us down yet. _________________ "It's not demand; It's not supply.
It's coming up with credit to buy"
Joined: Dec 03, 2004 Posts: 1165 Location: Seattle, Wa.
Posted: Mon Nov 27, 2006 7:33 pm Post subject: Re: Converging Catastrophes
Dire consequences will have the same effects on our culture that natural selection has in nature; it will mold and hone and temper us in ways that today seem impossible. It will represent the greatest revolution humanity ever encountered in the history of our species, greater than the discovery of fire or the steam engine. A revolution not created by the human mind but whose impact will greatly effect the way the surviving humans will think. That is what will make this such a profound event. I call it the chaos that heals us. I only hope I live long enough to witness the opening acts. _________________ Our resiliency resembles an invasive weed. We are the Kudzu Ape
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