Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Wed Nov 29, 2006 3:46 pm Post subject: When will we hit the peak?
Hi everybody, I'm new to the forum. I'm a student of sociology and biology at the University of Michigan. I first found out about peak oil a few months ago when I stumbled into The Party's Over in the library. Anyway, I'm interested in telling my friends about peak oil but sources seem to vary considerably on how soon we're to peak. If anyone can let me know about a consensus in the community or simply their own opinion, I'd appreciate it.
Posted: Wed Nov 29, 2006 4:13 pm Post subject: Re: When will we hit the peak?
There is no consensus.
The closest thing to a consensus we have is that we will hit peak.
Pessimists state that we have hit peak in 2005.
Then, you have a bunch of people predicting from now till 2030.
Anyone predicting beyond 2050 simply are pulling numbers without doing any serious research.
I think if you look at the data available, you will think 2007-2012. Anything beyond 2012 is a lot of guess work. Any date before 2012, we have good data on where existing oil fields are and any new projects coming online. What is not known is how much oil production will drop in existing oil fields. Will it drop a lot or average? If average, then peak should be 2012 or beyond. The trend shows the drop is increasing over time, so average is unlikely.
Posted: Wed Nov 29, 2006 6:02 pm Post subject: Re: When will we hit the peak?
When we hit peak depends on what is being counted, and who is doing the counting.
Most of the 2005 crowd is counting light sweet crude. Higher numbers come from counting stuff that is more expensive to deliver to the market. One other great variable is that everyone who has oil lies about what they have. Also, as fossil fuels become more expensive, alternarives become more economically viable. Picking out a date is a case of accounting meets statistics meets semantics.
Joined: Aug 26, 2005 Posts: 447 Location: Windy City No Longer
Posted: Wed Nov 29, 2006 6:34 pm Post subject: Re: When will we hit the peak?
I think nth summed it up in a nutshell. A 2005 peak of light sweet crude is starting to look correct. We are probably on the "undulating plateau" of the peak right now and will be until we enter serious decline.
When will that be? Dunno. I think the 2010 to 2012 estimates seem more accurate than the others. For one thing, all the 2015-2030 scenarios assume that no one is lying about their reserves. Given the incentives to lie and the fact that everyone in OPEC suddenly doubled their reserves in the 1980s after the reserve-based quota system was introduced, I'd say they probably are.
The question is less about when the exact moment of peak will be (although knowing the correct decade would be nice!) than how severe the drop off and how effective the mitigation strategies. A slow descent won't bring the chaos that many predict. A fast one probably will.
In any case, its good to see someone else in Michigan is PO aware. Even if you're on the other side of the state! _________________ TANSTAAFL
Posted: Wed Nov 29, 2006 7:14 pm Post subject: Re: When will we hit the peak?
You want to know the unknowable. Without the benefit of hindsight, the time of the peak cannot be determined.
Conventional oil production will peak sooner than total oil production. There are many variables, but you can be sure that there will be a peak and given the long span of the world oil production curve, and what is known about discoveries and depletion rates we are now in the ballpark with estimates from 2005 to 2030. My own guess is within the next 10 years.
Exactly how things unfold once peak is reached, has a lot of variables also, but you can be sure that absent a real energy substitute the current world population cannot be sustained at the current level. Life (and death) will be much different on the way down the depletion slide than it was going up the ladder.
Date and place of birth do have a lot to do with the life you can live. This is the hand you are dealt, so just play it the best you can.
Joined: Sep 25, 2004 Posts: 4722 Location: Boston, MA
Posted: Wed Nov 29, 2006 7:58 pm Post subject: Re: When will we hit the peak?
Thursday May 19th, 2011 at roughly 11pm Eastern Standard Time.
But we won't know untill Friday May 20th, 2011 at around 6am because the papers don't arrive untill then.
The announcement that will give it away will consist of the following headline located on page 11. "OPEC authorizes 100% production for the next quarter" _________________ "www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse."
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 1658 Location: Springsteen Country (NJ)
Posted: Wed Nov 29, 2006 11:52 pm Post subject: Re: When will we hit the peak?
Tyler_JC wrote:
Thursday May 19th, 2011 at roughly 11pm Eastern Standard Time.
But we won't know untill Friday May 20th, 2011 at around 6am because the papers don't arrive untill then.
The announcement that will give it away will consist of the following headline located on page 11. "OPEC authorizes 100% production for the next quarter"
OIL CARTEL Opec will agree to continue pumping at full tilt when it meets in Vienna today, writes Jane Padgham.
With oil prices back within striking distance of record highs, and supply disruptions in Nigeria and Iraq, analysts said Opec has no choice but to keep the taps turned to maximum.
US crude was today down 13 cents at $61.45 a barrel, compared with a record high of $70.85.
Venezuelan Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez said the oil cartel should consider cutting output to guard against a "collapse" in the cost of crude.
His Iranian counterpart Bijan Zanganeh said Opec was pumping at full capacity, well above daily output limits.
I think people are getting too much reassurance from this relatively low price(even though it's up almost 12% in less than two weeks). Keep in mind that KSA was pumping at 9.5mb/d earlier this year and their production declined to near 9mb/d while oil prices were climbing and before any OPEC "cuts". Also, the lack of hurricanes allowed the usual lower demand "shoulder season" to occur normally this year. In the meantime, as the EIA reports show, inventories of refined products are going below the 5-year averages ahead of the high demand winter season.
Some people speculate these recent OPEC cuts are supplying cover for unexpected natural depletion, especially in light of KSA's reduction of production earlier this year. If this is true, then we have indeed peaked, and this current small run-up in prices will accelerate into the new year and take out the old record. If the US has just a normal winter this year, prices could go even higher.
Others say there's new projects coming on line next year and in subsequent years that will increase production, but the real question is, will they be a net addition after considering Cantarell's 14% depletion, Burgan and the other depleting fields and provinces, like the North Sea?
Time will tell, but I definately think we hit at least a "mini-peak" last year. _________________ Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2006 8:04 am Post subject: Re: When will we hit the peak?
From Hirsch presentation:
Pickens, T. Boone(Oil & gas investor) 2005
Deffeyes, K.(Retired Princeton professor & retired Shell geologist) ..2005
Westervelt, E.T. et al.(US Army Corps of Engineers) . ..At hand
Bakhtiari, S.(Iranian National Oil Co. planner) ..Now
Herrera, R.(Retired BP geologist) ..Close or past
Groppe, H.(Oil / gas expert & businessman) .. .Very soon
Wrobel, S.(Investment fund manager) .. .By 2010
Bentley, R.(University energy analyst) . .. . ..Around 2010
Campbell, C. (Retired oil company geologist; Texaco & Amoco). .2010
Skrebowski, C.(Editor of Petroleum Review) ...2010 +/-a year
Koppelaar, R.H.E.M.(Dutch oil analyst) ...Around 2012
Meling, L.M.(Statoil oil company geologist) ..A challenge around 2011
Volvo Trucks Within a decade
de Margerie, C.(Oil company executive) .. ....Within a decade
al Husseini, S.(Retired Exec. VP of Saudi Aramco) .2015
Merrill Lynch(Brokerage / Financial). . . Around 2015
West, J.R., PFC Energy(Consultants).. ..2015-2020
Maxwell, C.T., Weeden & Co.(Brokerage)..Around 2020 or earlier
Amarach Consutling(Ireland) .Within 15 years
Wood Mackenzie(Energy consultin ... Tight balance by 2020
Total(French oil company) .. ..Around 2020
UBS(Brokerage / Financial) ..Mid to late 2020s
CERA(Energy consulting) .Well after 2020Peak oil theory is garbage
ExxonMobil(Oil company) . . . No sign of peaking
Browne, J.(BP CEO) ...Impossible to predict
OPEC Deny peak oil theory
Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2006 11:09 am Post subject: Re: When will we hit the peak?
Someone in Ann Arbor knows about peak oil? Yipee! I thought I was the only nut in town! _________________ Survive the economic fallout...
PeakEconomy.com
Joined: Sep 25, 2004 Posts: 4722 Location: Boston, MA
Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2006 3:53 pm Post subject: Re: When will we hit the peak?
kokoda wrote:
The biggest problem will be that we won't recognise the peak until perhaps years after the event.
Sometime in 2008 a government body somewhere may come forward and announce that oil production peaked in December 2005.
The stock market will collapse within minutes of the announcement and our lives will change forever.
When the Texas Railroad Commision annouced 100% production for the next month in the 70s, no one noticed. The oil shocks made us more aware, but the awareness subsided and if you were to ask 100 average Americans at a gas station, 99 out of 100 would probably assume the TRC was a group trying to build train service from Dallas to Houston. Then they would laugh at the mere suggestion that Texans should use mass transit.
This website will immediately light up when we get some hard data on oil's peak. But the news media won't take note and we'd be lucky to find the story on the front page of MSN's "Oil And Energy" news section.
Personally, I believe ASPO's numbers. They are the only organization of scientists focused on this issue, after all. _________________ "www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse."
Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2006 5:58 pm Post subject: Re: When will we hit the peak?
According to the "700k bbl/day drop in OPEC output" post I would say you missed the peak. Sorry, show's over. _________________ Survive the economic fallout...
PeakEconomy.com
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