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tmazanec1
Heavy Crude
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Cobra_Strike
Intermediate Crude
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Location: Pacific Northwest
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 Posted: Mon Jan 08, 2007 1:22 pm Post subject: Re: Super-Cornucopian 2020 |
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Holy crap! No kidding....they are optimistic...wow.
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NeoPeasant
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Oct 12, 2004
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Location: In the suburban sea of strangers
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| Posted: Mon Jan 08, 2007 1:25 pm Post subject: Re: Super-Cornucopian 2020 |
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Woohoo, Superland!
I predict that my biggest energy problem of 2020 will be scoring enough charcoal to cook a pot of beans, and that the author of this article will be shot while pilfering his neighbor's vegetable garden.
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tmazanec1
Heavy Crude
Joined: Oct 12, 2004
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| Posted: Mon Jan 08, 2007 1:27 pm Post subject: Re: Super-Cornucopian 2020 |
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| Yeah, I am an optimist on this board, and even I find it far-fetched, bordering on the silly. Personally, I think we are in for a recession for fundamental economic reasons, then a recovery, then an oil recession which builds into a Great Depression 2 during the "terrible teens". Then we will either blow it (perhaps literally, in a WW3) or start recovering into the kind of future they project...but it won't be at the start of the 20s. Maybe at the end. |
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UnpreparedMF
Tar Sands
Joined: Jan 16, 2006
Posts: 33
Location: Illinois, U.S.
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| Posted: Mon Jan 08, 2007 1:35 pm Post subject: Re: Super-Cornucopian 2020 |
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It would be nice if something like this were to come to pass, but I'm not sure the political will exists. Right now, the arrow is pointing "down", but things can change in a hurry under the correct circumstances.
In the meantime, I think we'd all be better served by learning to do with less...
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mididoctors
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Aug 30, 2004
Posts: 558
Location: London
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| Posted: Mon Jan 08, 2007 3:32 pm Post subject: Re: Super-Cornucopian 2020 |
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| Quote: | | All resources are obviously finite, but some are almost potentially inexhaustible even with an accelerating population |
hmmm a population that doubles every 60 years? the current growth rate
hold on back of envelope stuff...hmmm nuuuur yeahhhh ok
well after 5000 yrs or so roughly the length of written history the total mass of humanity is equivalent to a million solar masses!
after 10000 yrs the doubling of the time since the neolithic revolution and civilisation (agriculture and domestication of animals villages etc) we are looking at roughly 10 to power 24 solar Masses or about a 100 times the total number of stars in the observable universe!
population explosion of the 19th 20th century MUST be a temporary phenomena.. it is simply physically impossible to maintain such growth in this universe indefinitely as there isn't enough atoms to make all the people
so some rate of growth limit thing must intervene even if we get access to fusion and all that trekie stuff
Boris
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morph
Heavy Crude
Joined: Jul 28, 2006
Posts: 105
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| Posted: Mon Jan 08, 2007 3:42 pm Post subject: Re: Super-Cornucopian 2020 |
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wow, that is the most optimistic prediction i have seen in a long while  |
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AWPrime
Intermediate Crude
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Joined: Jul 07, 2005
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Location: Europe
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| Posted: Mon Jan 08, 2007 3:53 pm Post subject: Re: Super-Cornucopian 2020 |
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This needs a new word......
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skyemoor
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MD
Community Manager
Joined: May 02, 2005
Posts: 3524
Location: Oh really?
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| Posted: Mon Jan 08, 2007 5:48 pm Post subject: Re: Super-Cornucopian 2020 |
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| mididoctors wrote: | | Quote: | | All resources are obviously finite, but some are almost potentially inexhaustible even with an accelerating population |
hmmm a population that doubles every 60 years? the current growth rate
hold on back of envelope stuff...hmmm nuuuur yeahhhh ok
well after 5000 yrs or so roughly the length of written history the total mass of humanity is equivalent to a million solar masses!
after 10000 yrs the doubling of the time since the neolithic revolution and civilisation (agriculture and domestication of animals villages etc) we are looking at roughly 10 to power 24 solar Masses or about a 100 times the total number of stars in the observable universe!
population explosion of the 19th 20th century MUST be a temporary phenomena.. it is simply physically impossible to maintain such growth in this universe indefinitely as there isn't enough atoms to make all the people
so some rate of growth limit thing must intervene even if we get access to fusion and all that trekie stuff
Boris
London |
You missed a zero or dozen in your envelope scratch. Nevertheless, point taken.
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EnergySpin
Fission
Joined: Jun 25, 2005
Posts: 2381
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| Posted: Mon Jan 08, 2007 6:46 pm Post subject: Re: Super-Cornucopian 2020 |
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| wormhole wrote: |
Many years later, last month, Jeb Bush gave his 2020 State of the Union address as the 47th president of the USA
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"Nuclear power has long been to the Left what embryonic-stem-cell research is to the Right--irredeemably wrong and a signifier of moral weakness."Esquire Magazine,12/05
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Stratovarius
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Nov 17, 2006
Posts: 583
Location: Texas
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| Posted: Mon Jan 08, 2007 8:14 pm Post subject: Re: Super-Cornucopian 2020 |
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| AWPrime wrote: | | This needs a new word...... |
Corderian, or Cordeirian...check the author of the article. |
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Omnitir
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Apr 02, 2005
Posts: 1001
Location: Down Under
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| Posted: Mon Jan 08, 2007 9:17 pm Post subject: Re: Super-Cornucopian 2020 |
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| Quote: | | The major problem with the Club of Rome's computer models and its Limits to Growth report was that they failed to consider technological change, new energy sources (all the way from deeper within the Earth to outside the planet) and resource substitution, which have been the three key energy drivers in the 21st century. |
This is precisely the flaw with all of these sky is falling arguments. Technological change is of massive importance in modelling the future, and that change is occurring at an ever increasing pace. Yet limits to growth arguments assume a steady state of technological capabilities. This assumption is as ridiculous as assuming that any other factor is at a steady state.
Would one assume that oil supply, or demand, or population growth etc. are at fixed rates? Ridiculous! Yet why is it reasonable to assume that technological change is fixed?
| Quote: | | Our civilization is still in its infancy, and barring any wild cards, geopolitical crisis, environmental disasters or extraterrestrial contacts, technology will keep pushing off the limits to growth. |
Just as technology has always extended the limits of growth. We’ve barely begun and we still have a long way to go before we encounter true limits. |
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Stratovarius
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Nov 17, 2006
Posts: 583
Location: Texas
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| Posted: Mon Jan 08, 2007 10:06 pm Post subject: Re: Super-Cornucopian 2020 |
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Omnitir you silly Corderian. :rollingeyes:
Consider that we are possibly at the brink of all these problems and that even with accelerating development in technology we won't "make it fast enough".
Sure we could recover, I believe we will after a few generations, maybe next time we'll be more technologically advanced to completely blow this universe to bits.
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mididoctors
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Aug 30, 2004
Posts: 558
Location: London
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| Posted: Tue Jan 09, 2007 12:46 am Post subject: Re: Super-Cornucopian 2020 |
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| Omnitir wrote: |
Just as technology has always extended the limits of growth. We’ve barely begun and we still have a long way to go before we encounter true limits. |
Please give an example of a true limit and the time span you envisage?
Boris
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