Joined: Dec 04, 2006 Posts: 216 Location: End of the plateau
Posted: Mon Jan 08, 2007 2:05 pm Post subject: Re: Is Opec at Peak Production
rockdoc123 wrote:
Quote:
Seems like this is falling inline with Simmons' predection that Saudi oil output will be down to 8mbpd by 2008
Difference being that Saudi is taking voluntary cuts to maintain price....Simmons was suggesting they would be producing at this level because their fields were all in serious rapid decline.
Hi RD, wasn't the Saudi's talking of supply cuts when oil was $65.00+ per barrel? Why would they make 'voluntary' cuts when the price was that high?
Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 2091 Location: Arkansas
Posted: Sat Jan 13, 2007 9:06 am Post subject: Re: Is Opec at Peak Production
Syrian oil production decreasing.
Quote:
Syrian Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Sufian Alaw said on Friday that the country's oil industry is facing great challenges as the production was witnessing a gradual decrease.
The production of oil in Syria reached about 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 1996 while it records now about 400,000 bpd," the minister was quoted as saying.
Oil output in Syria continues to decline due to technological problems and depletion of reserves. Syria has worried that it is possible that the country could become a net oil importer within a decade.
Posted: Wed Feb 14, 2007 9:41 am Post subject: Re: Is Opec at Peak Production
News article summarizing other articles and statements calling future production of Ghawar into question. For those who don't know, Ghawar is the largest producing oil field in the world (considered a combination of many oil fields by some) located in Saudi Arabia. Many pessimists have said that when Ghawar peaks in oil production, the world will peak, thus it is a barometer of sorts. Saudi Arabia does not release the production information necessary to ascertain whether any of their fields are in decline, thus, people speculate. This article summarizes that speculation and is a good introduction.
Posted: Tue Feb 20, 2007 10:15 am Post subject: Re: Is Opec at Peak Production
On the Iran thread, Dantespeak made a post that should also be included here in the Opec Peak Production thread. This post points out that the world cannot rely on Iran to increase production. Thus, we really start having to question how Opec can meet the projections from CERA and others to meet expected future demand.
DantesPeak wrote:
The Wall Street Journal joins the NY Times in stating, many months after being discussed here at PO.com, that Iran's net oil exports will eventually disappear - and also - Iran will struggle to maintain its gasoline imports to meet growing internal demands.
Quote:
How Iran Is Vulnerable To Weakening in Oil Exports
By BHUSHAN BAHREE
February 20, 2007
Tehran's chest-beating over its nuclear-development program has masked a longstanding but growing Iranian vulnerability: its oil exports.
The energy industry accounts for some 85% of Iran's export income, but oil shipments may be poised to go into a steep decline. Some industry researchers say they can see the day -- perhaps 10 years off -- when Iran may have no oil to export unless it dramatically changes the policies affecting its oil industry. Such an outcome would rob world markets of a major source of supply and leave the Iranian government with no oil revenue to placate its fast-growing population.
The potential crunch stems in part from rapidly rising domestic consumption in Iran. Also at work are Iranian government policies that have so weakened the oil industry that petroleum production may start declining unless Iran moves swiftly to inject foreign capital, technology and know-how to reverse the downtrend.
CRUDE REALITY
Soaring Energy Use Puts Oil Squeeze on Iran
There Is Less to Export As Consumers Learn
To Love Appliances, Cars
By BILL SPINDLE
February 19, 2007 11:01 p.m.
AHVAZ, Iran -- Iran sits on one-tenth of the world's known oil supplies but is using so much energy these days it may start rationing gasoline as soon as next month.
a combination of Western sanctions and Iranian policies has discouraged foreign investment in oil fields, causing production to stagnate. The result: Iran's oil exports could dry up in as little as a decade, according to some who have studied the situation.
That's a looming disaster for Iran, which derives about 85% of its export income from the sale of oil. "The industry is in a crisis," says Mehdi Varzi, a former Iranian diplomat and national oil company official who heads a London-based consulting company, Varzi Energy.
The impact would be felt far beyond Iran. The country produced 3.8 million barrels of oil a day in 2006, almost 5% of the world's total supply, according to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. It exported an average of about 2.5 million barrels of that each day. Should those sales decline, Iran's largest customers, Japan and China, would scramble for other supplies, pushing up prices for everyone.
One of Iran's largest refineries, in Abadan, was largely destroyed by shelling. Operable today, it still only produces about half the 630,000 barrels per day of crude it did at its pre-revolutionary peak. An oil container near the refinery shows the war damage that remains.
Posted: Tue Feb 20, 2007 4:08 pm Post subject: Re: Is Opec at Peak Production
Venezuela oil production continues to drop. This article attributes it to nationalization of the energy sector. My reply to this is, we were warned by many pessimist that as we approached or reached peak oil, fighting and nationalization of energy was a likely response. So, regardless of the cause of the drop, it seems highly unlikely that it will be reversed.
Quote:
According to a report released by the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA), Venezuelan oil production dropped 5.5% last year to an average of 2.56 million barrels a day. The decline marked the largest drop of any Latin American oil producer.
Moreover, the IEA estimated that Venezuela's spare production capacity is a mere 210,000 barrels a day. And even those levels, the IEA warned, would be hard to meet, since the country has "impediments to raising actual production" that "render this portion of spare capacity inaccessible."
Those "impediments," of course, are related to ongoing efforts to nationalize oil and overhaul existing contracts on the four heavy oil projects in the Orinoco, which produce nearly one fifth of the country's production.
Posted: Wed Feb 21, 2007 4:07 pm Post subject: Re: Is Opec at Peak Production
I'd like to see a graph that shows the level of all oil exporting countries to theie consumption. This type of correlation will give some input as to what stage of peak we are in.
Posted: Fri Mar 02, 2007 11:11 am Post subject: Re: Is Opec at Peak Production
In this analysis, the author concludes that Saudi Arabian oil production is in permanent decline, and that those declines are not the result of the current Opec production cuts, but in fact, the Opec production cuts are masking the permanent decline of Saudi Arabian fields.
Posted: Thu Apr 05, 2007 12:56 pm Post subject: Re: Is Opec at Peak Production
seahorse2 wrote:
For what its worth, in April of 2001 James Baker Institute produced a book/report titled "Strategic Energy Policies, Challenges for the 21st Century." I haven't read the book yet, but have ordered it. Interesting, the overview of the book has this comment particularly pertaining to ME oil production:
Quote:
Oil field production capacity limitations today in the Middle East mean that the U.S. can no longer assume that the oil-producing states will provide more oil at will. Moreover, it is not politically desirable for the U.S. to increase its dependence on a few foreign sources.
Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 2091 Location: Arkansas
Posted: Sat Apr 07, 2007 8:12 am Post subject: Re: Is Opec at Peak Production
Newsseeker wrote:
KSA's fifth largest bank forecasts a fall in oil production.
Quote:
Saudi oil production is expected to fall from an average 9.12 million barrels per day in 2006 to 8.44 million bpd in 2007. "For 2007 ... we forecast oil prices to rise/fall by $3 per barrel," it said.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5522 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Mon Apr 16, 2007 3:21 pm Post subject: Re: Is Opec at Peak Production
I found it startling that Kuwait may cancel building a new refinery just because of high construction costs. Granted being near Iraq and Iran is not a desirable building location, but I doubt security costs are going to be unusually high as compared to other Kuwait locations. If someone knows otherwise, let me know.
Anyway $15 billion seems like a great deal of money for a 615,000 barrels per day refinery. This implies the oil being processed needs some special treatment.
At the very least, we see the persistence of falling EROEI on nearly all new oil projects. At worst, Kuwait may have intentionally sought bids on a refinery they knew they never really wanted to complete anyway.
Quote:
AFX News Limited
High costs could force Kuwait to abandon refinery - official
04.15.07, 4:32 PM ET
KUWAIT CITY (Thomson Financial News) - Kuwait may abandon plans to build a new oil refinery if a second round of bidding, expected within weeks, fails to cut high costs, Asad al-Saad, deputy managing director of the Kuwait National Petroleum Co (KNPC), said Sunday.
The emirate has earmarked 6.3 bln usd for the refinery, but international companies have estimated the cost in their bids at 15 bln usd, Saad told reporters.
KNPC, the national oil refiner, has decided to reopen bidding with the new tenders now be based on a cost plus profit margin, which means paying the cost to the foreign companies plus an agreed profit.
Forbes/AFX News _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5522 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Wed Apr 18, 2007 9:49 pm Post subject: Re: Is Opec at Peak Production
Saudis increasing water cut in one location to 14 million barrels per day, which is not a sign that oil production will be increasing:
Quote:
GULF CONSTRUCTION
Al Hilal Publishing and Marketing Group.
Source : Financial Times Information Limited.
April 10, 2007
Aramco plans mega sea water job
A giant sea water treatment project is expected to be implemented by Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Saudi Aramco) by expanding one of its plants in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia. The expansion of the sea water treatment plant of Khuraiya, 40 km east of Beqiq, would contribute to adding about 4.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of water to the plants present capacity
On completion of the project, the plant's production is expected to rise to 14 million bpd to become the worlds largest sea water treatment plant used to extract oil
[subscription service, no link] _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
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