Those who have called a peak in oil production.

joewp · Last edited by joewp on Fri May 11, 2007 9:25 pm; edited 5 times in total

This is a list of those people in and around the oil industry who have called a peak.

1) Dr. M. King Hubbert (petroleum geologist) - 1976 in this video
2) Professor Kenneth S. Deffeyes (petroleum geologist) - February 11, 2006
3) Dr Ali Samsam Bakhtiari (National Iranian Oil Company - consultant, chemical engineer) - July 10, 2006
4) Matt Simmons (energy industry investment banker) - February 1, 2007
5) T. Boone Pickens (former wildcat driller; energy hedge fund manager) - March 1, 2007
6) Jim Buckee (CEO - Talisman Inc oil company) - May 10, 2007

Are they right? Can we expect this list to get longer and longer as time goes on? Or are they jumping the gun?

Was Ken Deffeyes right when he said "Instead of being prophets, we are now historians" in The End of Suburbia?

When someone mentions a name please include a link so I can update the list above, thanks.
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seahorse2 · Expert Joined: Oct 18, 2004 Posts: 1817

What I find interesting is we have knowledgeable people saying "we are at peak" or have passed peak. Is there any precedent for this? I know people have predicted peak in the past, like Campbell etc, but have so many people gone out and said we are at peak?

Cobra_Strike · Posted: Thu Mar 01, 2007 3:08 pm Post subject: Re: Those who have called a peak

There is a lot of jumping the shark here....production will have needed to fall throughout the summer season for any real indication. Even then, things are going to be bumpy even if there is not a peak...because right now production seems tight...Just wait, not much other option.
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joewp · Posted: Thu Mar 01, 2007 8:07 pm Post subject: Re: Those who have called a peak

I don't think there's ever been a time when people ever went out on a limb and called a peak like we're seeing now. I wasn't paying attention back then but I don't think many people were saying the US peaked until the late 1970s, almost a decade after the fact.

Cobra_Strike is right, it might be too early, but if Saudi Arabia can't bring production back up this spring (and soon) to 9.6mb/d, we probably have reached some kind of peak, either an foothill peak or the big one. KSA announced their "capacity" went up to 10.7mb/d just today, but they haven't pumped within 500,000 b/d of their stated "capacity" for a few years now.

Hang on, gentlemen, we'll know it's over when Mike Lynch is added to this list. Smile

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Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb

DantesPeak · Posted: Thu Mar 01, 2007 8:55 pm Post subject: Re: Those who have called a peak

Yes, this is the first time that some type of Peak Oil consensus is developing.

Part of the irrational CERA oil theory is that oil production must rise because, they sometimes kindly note, one or more prior Peak Oilers was wrong about when the peak would occur.

If all of these folks are wrong now, the discussion of PO will be dead and buried until we start burning the furniture for heat inside those McMansions.
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JMB · Coal Joined: Aug 02, 2006 Posts: 10

Don’t forget Hubbert. I would call it the Hubbert-Deffeyes prediction. Remember, Deffeyes took over where Hubbert left off, and fine-tuned his prediction based on more complete data. And don’t leave out Jeffrey Johnson, Ron Patterson, and Khebab over at TOD, and they‘ve done some fine work. They’ve also called the peak and deserve mention. BTW, James Kunstler is also being vindicated right about now.

Cobra wrote: “....production will have needed to fall throughout the summer season for any real indication.” I don’t agree…at all. Look back at Deffeyes’ prediction of Feb 11, 2006. What exactly did he predict? Feb 11 wasn’t a prediction, it was a confirmation. He noted that world cumulative production reached 50% (50% Qt) on December 16, 2005, and that, he said, is the peak date of world oil production on the logistic curve. There are two “curves” here -- the bell shaped logistic curve -- and the graph made by production data. We shouldn’t confuse them. Deffeyes’ prediction is only for the log curve. He didn’t say much about actual monthly production data. Only that the production data will closely, (or roughly,
depending on how closely you look at it) follow the smooth bell-curve. Remember, this bell-curve extends out over about 200 years. Production ups and downs about right now don’t mean a whole lot, and a slight uptrend would not disprove Deffeyes’ prediction. I can’t presume to speak for Deffeyes of course but I think that summarizes his prediction, and stand to be corrected if I’m proved wrong.

IMO, equal weight can’t be given to all the oil “gurus“, including ASPO. Hubbert was uncommonly astute. If it wasn’t for Hubbert we would not likely even be discussing the things we are now. We might, about now be asking -- what’s up with this oil? Think something’s happening?

Are we at peak? There is no doubt. Zero. The Hubbert-Deffeyes case is way too solid. December 16, 2005 was the peak. (Once again… that’s on the smooth curve…not on monthly production figures)

NEOPO · Posted: Thu Mar 01, 2007 10:22 pm Post subject: Re: Those who have called a peak

Is this when all the white people circle their wagons Very Happy

Peak Oil Projections
For those about to call a peak - we sa-lute you!! Cool

50 years ago at 10-15 mbpd - that would have been a tough call.
I am sure it is not very popular declaring something of this nature and it must require some bravery thus hat's off to them all but most definately hats off to Mr. Hubbert with his world peak of 1995 or was it 1999? close enough for Peak Oil and handgrenades!!!

Of course what JMB is talking about is something like this:
hubberts math

They call that "creaming" the curve correct?
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TheDude · Posted: Fri Mar 02, 2007 2:17 pm Post subject: Re: Those who have called a peak

pstarr · Posted: Fri Mar 02, 2007 3:49 pm Post subject: Re: Those who have called a peak

You really need to add Stuart Staniford to this list. See his work today at The Oil Drum. Link: The Oil Drum on SA decline

I know Stuart very well and respect his work, background, and person. Stuart has two PhD's (though not in geology, rather mathematics and physics), works as a security-systems programmer. He is very in touch with sustainability and conservation and was a co-developer of our Cohousing community. Stuart has been modeling oil production and decline at the Oil Drum for several years and is an important editor and analyst there.

dohboi · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Dec 05, 2005 Posts: 1125

And now add the GAO to the list! Along with "the largest number of [experts]"! This is looking pretty real.

Washington (Platts)--28Feb2007

A draft US Government Accountability Office report finds that, though it
is difficult to assess whether the world has reached "peak oil," a large
number of experts surveyed for the report believe the world may have reached
the peak for conventional petroleum supplies, said Representative Roscoe
Bartlett, Republican-Maryland.

Bartlett, who has raised concerns that the world has produced more oil
than remains in reserves, ordered the report from GAO -- the nonpartisan
investigative arm of Congress -- and will release it within the next month.

He said the report authors did not get a fix on how much oil is left in
the world because principal oil suppliers would offer no information about how
much oil they have left.

"They have no reason to tell us and little reason to be truthful,"
Bartlett said, so it is "very difficult to determine a date specific" when the
world will reach peak oil.

But he added that the GAO report found that "the largest number of
[experts] believe that it has occurred, that conventional supplies have
peaked."

Jim Wells, director of the natural and resources and environment division
at GAO, told the House Energy and Water Development Appropriations
Subcommittee at a hearing Wednesday that the report includes a recommendation
related to the lack of reliable data on world oil supplies. Wells also said
the report provides "an extensive look at ... the academic and scientific
community and all the various studies that have been done, and has calculated
a consensus on where they think peak oil is in our future."

Wells refused to provide more details on the report because he said
Bartlett has 30 days by law to do so before GAO can publish the results.[b]

jeezlouise · Heavy Crude Joined: Feb 05, 2006 Posts: 303

TreebeardsUncle · Intermediate Crude Joined: Jun 15, 2006 Posts: 534

Hi.
So, how high are prices likely to rise how fast?
Thus this means that there will be no mini glut due to expected increases in production in the GoM, ME, Caspian region, off the west coast of Africa etc? Rather declines and increasing demand will exceed any production gains realized?
Perhaps it will go like this:
Year Maximum Average Effect
Gas Price in the US
2007 $2.90 whining
2008 $3.20 surprise and whining
2009 $3.50 whining from city
governmentsabout the high price
of asphalt
2010 $3.80 Ford sales decline more.

MonteQuest · Posted: Sat Mar 03, 2007 11:01 pm Post subject: Re: Those who have called a peak

sch_peakoiler · Intermediate Crude Joined: Jan 15, 2006 Posts: 555

DantesPeak · Last edited by DantesPeak on Sun Mar 04, 2007 1:28 pm; edited 1 time in total