Joined: May 02, 2005 Posts: 3434 Location: Oh really?
Posted: Sun Mar 04, 2007 9:26 am Post subject: Re: Those who have called a peak
They'll all have to be on board by 2009, except Lynch who will be claiming above-ground constraints. _________________ "It's not demand; It's not supply.
It's coming up with credit to buy"
Joined: May 13, 2005 Posts: 2909 Location: The Urban Village
Posted: Sun Mar 04, 2007 9:40 am Post subject: Re: Those who have called a peak
MD wrote:
They'll all have to be on board by 2009, except Lynch who will be claiming above-ground constraints.
We'll see. I predict that they (CERA etc) will be pointing to their assertions of above ground constraints and saying that is the issue in 2009. At that point there will still be places in the world that have instability (duh) and other places that they will say are being constrained from exploration (Alaska, Continental Shelf, Antartica etc) and this is the reason for the troubles. They will be wrong (IMO) but people will be desperate to believe them and if things are as bad as they could be, it will lead to more wars (to "stabilize" those sub-producing countries) or desperate exploration attempts (assuming it is economically feasible).
Posted: Sun Mar 04, 2007 10:26 am Post subject: Re: Those who have called a peak
DantesPeak wrote:
sch_peakoiler wrote:
seahorse2 wrote:
What I find interesting is we have knowledgeable people saying "we are at peak" or have passed peak. Is there any precedent for this? I know people have predicted peak in the past, like Campbell etc, but have so many people gone out and said we are at peak?
Pickens have claimed peak 4 times He is onto making a new record - 10 wrong claims in a row. Which prize would he get for that???? An Oscar of the False Prohet?
Your comments are unrelated to this topic, so why bring this up again here?
No. Not unrelated. They are related. People were wondering whether it means anything when Pickens cries peak. He cried peak before, at 82 and 84 mbd. So he does that rather freely (when he feels like), and thus - this information maybe useful to somebody who sees an expert in Pickens.
He is a Forbes-rated top-rich person, a well known greenmailer. I expect him to say not what he thinks but what is profitable for him. Blessed is he who thinks he is honest. You are blessed _________________ There is no knowledge that is not power.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5923 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Sun Mar 04, 2007 10:40 am Post subject: Re: Those who have called a peak
sch_peakoiler wrote:
DantesPeak wrote:
sch_peakoiler wrote:
seahorse2 wrote:
What I find interesting is we have knowledgeable people saying "we are at peak" or have passed peak. Is there any precedent for this? I know people have predicted peak in the past, like Campbell etc, but have so many people gone out and said we are at peak?
Pickens have claimed peak 4 times He is onto making a new record - 10 wrong claims in a row. Which prize would he get for that???? An Oscar of the False Prohet?
Your comments are unrelated to this topic, so why bring this up again here?
No. Not unrelated. They are related. People were wondering whether it means anything when Pickens cries peak. He cried peak before, at 82 and 84 mbd. So he does that rather freely (when he feels like), and thus - this information maybe useful to somebody who sees an expert in Pickens.
He is a Forbes-rated top-rich person, a well known greenmailer. I expect him to say not what he thinks but what is profitable for him. Blessed is he who thinks he is honest. You are blessed
Frankly whether Pickens was greenmailer, or even pure evil, doesn't change his track record on oil.
So if you don't like Pickens, I'm still waiting for you, or anyone, to spell out who has a better record [and who also is not predicting PO within a few years].
Most likely, again for the 11th time, no one will respond to my request. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Posted: Sun Mar 11, 2007 7:33 am Post subject: Re: Those who have called a peak in oil production.
Let's refocus the debate a little. How many times have the others claimed a peak? In my opinion Simmons has not claimed a peak to my knowledge and the information coming out now is truly devastating to those that believe in CERA's rosy outlook. Another name to add to the list is Westexas or Jeffery J Brown from The Oil Drum. He has done some very good analysis and Hubbert linearization regarding Saudi production.
Most of the voices now being heard are being heard for the first time. That Pickens has previously claimed a peak is irrelevant and takes the light off everything from EIA data showing a decline to Stuart's excellent analysis of Saudi production!
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 1628 Location: Springsteen Country (NJ)
Posted: Sun Mar 11, 2007 7:37 pm Post subject: Re: Those who have called a peak in oil production.
You're right Newsseeker, Pickens is the only guy who has called a peak before, the others are first time callers. I don't believe this has happened before. Based on this video I'd say that Hubbert called it for around now first, over 30 years ago. _________________ Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
Posted: Thu Mar 22, 2007 10:05 am Post subject: Re: Those who have called a peak in oil production.
This guy is at least implying peak oil, although he apparently never used those words.
Quote:
James R. Schlesinger, a leading expert in the energy field and the first U.S. Secretary of Energy, spoke yesterday evening at the Lyric about the nation’s energy crisis. Schlesinger is also currently co-chairing a study for the Department of Defense energy strategy. He articulated that consumption of oil as an energy source in today’s society is a serious problem that will not disappear in the near future, but rather demand immediate attention.
“We are not going to reach energy independence in this nation and have better control over our national security as long as we remain dependent on the internal combustion engine and air traffic to move people and goods,” Schlesinger said.
If that wasn't enough, this is why I think he believes in peak oil:
Quote:
With $5 billion worth of oil being used daily and the world’s existing oil fields in a decline of about 4% a year, Schlesinger detailed three relatively immediate alternatives: conservation, renewable resources and nuclear power. However, his prediction that future demand for oil would mean finding the equivalence of nine Saudia Arabia’s had more of an impact on the crowd.
just a sampling. _________________ ___________________________
WHEN THE BLIND LEAD THE BLIND...GET OUT OF THE WAY!
Using evil to further good makes one evil
Doubt everything but the TRUTH
This posted information is not permissible to be used
by anyone who has ever met a lawyer
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5923 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Sat Apr 21, 2007 10:04 pm Post subject: Re: Those who have called a peak in oil production.
Quote:
Peaking of world oil production: Recent forecasts
Predicting the timing of a peak may not be possible, but inadequate investment could make geological considerations moot.
Robert L. Hirsch, Senior Energy Program Advisor, SAIC
April 2007
Because oil is a depleting, finite natural resource, world conventional oil production will reach a maximum, or peak, after which production will decline.1 Using differing methodologies and information of widely varying quality, experts and organizations have attempted to forecast the likely year of world conventional oil production peaking. The recent range of such estimates extends from late 2005 to an apparent denial that it will ever happen. Almost all forecasts are based on differing, often dramatically differing geological assumptions. Explicit account of investment rates in new and expanded production has been relatively rare.
Because of the large uncertainties, it is difficult to define an overriding geological basis for accepting or rejecting any of the forecasts. However, the International Energy Agency (IEA) recently warned that worldwide investment in expanded oil production has been considerably less than needed to continue world oil production that is adequate to meet expected world demand. Thus, geological limits may be yielding to inadequate investment.
Peak oil presents the world with a risk management problem of tremendous complexity and enormity. Prudent risk minimization requires the implementation of mitigation measures roughly 20 years before peaking, to avoid a very damaging world liquid fuels shortfall.2 Since it is uncertain when peaking will occur or whether it will be due to geological or investment constraints, the challenge is indeed vexing.
Worldoil.com Magazine _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Posted: Mon Apr 23, 2007 7:19 am Post subject: Re: Those who have called a peak in oil production.
joewp wrote:
You're right Newsseeker, Pickens is the only guy who has called a peak before, the others are first time callers. I don't believe this has happened before. Based on this video I'd say that Hubbert called it for around now first, over 30 years ago.
If you have five virgins and one whore you don't make a blanket statement about the whole group rather you single out the one woman of loose morals and let the others maintain their dignity. I personally am a Bakhtiari man and believe his ideas are the most plausible.
I think it is also fair to point out that Laherrere and Campbell called for a peak to happen at no later than 2010 (in their seminal 1998 Scientific American article).
Their current estimate (as per latest ASPO newsletter is 2011 for all liquids).
Posted: Mon Apr 23, 2007 9:13 am Post subject: Re: Those who have called a peak in oil production.
I looked at the article by Koskela. Did not read much of it, but noted a factual error in the end remarks: He says that oil has replaced coal. Granted, coal was not the topic of his article, but it is quite interesting that this misconception is so entrenched. I thought so too until a last years or so, while reading this thread or some similar. Coal consumption has not decreased, just moved a bit out of view. Concurrently with using more and more oil, we (humanity) are using as much coal as ever.
Posted: Mon Apr 23, 2007 10:43 am Post subject: Re: Those who have called a peak in oil production.
nocar wrote:
I looked at the article by Koskela. Did not read much of it, but noted a factual error in the end remarks: He says that oil has replaced coal. Granted, coal was not the topic of his article, but it is quite interesting that this misconception is so entrenched. I thought so too until a last years or so, while reading this thread or some similar. Coal consumption has not decreased, just moved a bit out of view. Concurrently with using more and more oil, we (humanity) are using as much coal as ever.
nocar
But coal's share of the energy mix has declined over the years and is now running even.
Even as coal production has increased.
_________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Joined: Apr 09, 2007 Posts: 5936 Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).
Posted: Mon Apr 23, 2007 12:58 pm Post subject: Re: Those who have called a peak
TheDude wrote:
Are there heavyweight thinkers in the industry who contest Hubbert-Deffeyes?
The "industry" keeps their information on oil reserves, prospective oil exploration areas, price projections etc. under very tight lock and key. All information of this kind is considered a business secret.
The CIA also make estimates of oil availability etc., but we can't see these either.
However, the U.S. Geological Suvey of the U.S. Government maintains a very active program in petroleum science. These are the folks who publish estimates of reserves etc., such as the billions of barrels of oil they estimate is in ANWR, for example. The U.S.G.S. also has done extensive mapping and study in Saudi Arabia and other areas of the middle east. They maintain a public website and definitely DO NOT concur that we are at Peak Oil. _________________ "People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf." -- George Orwell
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He is onto making a new record - 10 wrong claims in a row. Which prize would he get for that???? An Oscar of the False Prohet?
