Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Thu Mar 22, 2007 10:33 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil will be our epiphany, and that's a good thing..
burritos wrote:
Benefit of mankind will never overtake the will of self interest. I'll give you that. Why are more people buying hybrids? Some do it for the environment, many do it cause they think they save money. As gas prices go higher and higher, people actually will save money, and more will buy hybrids. As gas goes even higher, more will buy plugs-ins, and eventually EVs. That will create a higher demand for electricity. Carbon taxation will make solar more competetive. Homeowners will use equity lines to equip solar panels instead of granite countertops. Why? Who cares about the environment, the average joe will consider it a viable option cause $10 a gallon is just not worth it anymore.
By that point, the average Joe will be bankrupt and working in a Halliburton built workcamp. _________________ http://www.peakoil.org
Posted: Thu Mar 22, 2007 10:58 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil will be our epiphany, and that's a good thing..
burritos wrote:
Yes, but this is with the presence of cheap fossil fuels. When oil rises because of its scarcity and when fossil fuels rise upon carbon taxation, it will be easier and capitalistically more attractive to scale turbines.
Attractive compared to something else, doesn't get you far when you're through the economic meltdown threshold.
burritos wrote:
Who better to position themselves to scale production than one of the largest conglomerates ever? Who better to derive a plan than profit driven entities? Will other conglomerates follow suit? You bet they will, and not in an effort to save the planet. That is merely a side effect of the main goal, profit.
I work for one, I know the sector won't. It'll go the way of the oil industry, downsizing, mergers and acquisitions, absorbing and shedding consultancies, living off past glories towards the end. I know what's being worked on in my country, it's not what you're talking about. That stuff isn't on the horizon. No-one can do that except as a technology demonstrator which pays for itself by getting someone's name out.
burritos wrote:
As gas prices go higher and higher, people actually will save money, and more will buy hybrids. As gas goes even higher, more will buy plugs-ins, and eventually EVs. That will create a higher demand for electricity. Carbon taxation will make solar more competetive. Homeowners will use equity lines to equip solar panels instead of granite countertops. Why? Who cares about the environment, the average joe will consider it a viable option cause $10 a gallon is just not worth it anymore.
I'll tell you what will happen. Fuel prices go higher, the economy will contract, people will try to conserve by driving, heating and cooling less, eventually they will lose their jobs in increasing numbers and they won't have money for a new car whether it's based on experimental technology or not. When you're struggling to pay the bills, you don't go out and spend $30,000 on a more efficient car. You cut back use of your existing one, maybe sell it, live off aid while it lasts, try to get back on your feet. Most people won't.
As a separate issue, higher demand for electricity will kill the grids. Worldwide they're almost maxed on 30+ year old equipment and an ageing workforce. Matthew Simmons should give the good old fashioned public utilities the same treatment he gave oil E&P. There's an untold story there. He'll see the same trends. They operated in the same economic environment, after all.
The average Joe is going to be broke, unemployed and with no prospects. If at that point the government is still spending its diminishing tax revenue paying the likes of me to pursue some renewable boondoggle, I'll take it, better them than me. Eventually it's Game Over and I walk into the sunset to join everyone else. _________________ Volatility. When life isn't exciting enough.
Posted: Fri Mar 23, 2007 12:13 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil will be our epiphany, and that's a good thing..
Code:
Exxon Mobil projects an 11%/yr growth rate for solar/wind, providing 1% of our primary energy in 2030.
The EIA projects the renewable share of world installed electrical capacity falls from 23 percent in 2003 to 22 percent in 2030.
The IEA states that in 2001, wind (onshore and offshore), solar and tidal energy represented only 0.5% of the renewable supply, which is equivalent to less than 0.1% of world’s primary energy.
Can you think of any reason why Exxon Mobil would downplay the significance of alternative energies? I can think of a few.
Those small contributions are indeed small, but that is with current energy consumption. That consumption will will have to decrease. How will it decrease? Charge 4 bucks a gallon next year. Charge 5 bucks a gallon in 3 years. Wash rinse and repeat.
The doomsday arguments proposed here I'm sure have plenty of evidence to scare the hell out of any rational thinking person. I just think that the changes will be gradual(yet unpleasant) enough for human ingenuity to compensate. I will concede a 10 percent casualty rate across the earth during this transition via starvation/war. But you could argue people in New Orleans, Darfur, Tsunami vics, Holocaust vics, etc... only viewed the earth as a craphole, while many others viewed it just fine simultaneously.
Posted: Fri Mar 23, 2007 12:23 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil will be our epiphany, and that's a good thing..
burritos wrote:
Can you think of any reason why Exxon Mobil would downplay the significance of alternative energies? I can think of a few.
So, how far off are they? 100%? 1000%? Still, an insignificant contribution. An ad hominem attack on Exxon doesn't refute the data.
Quote:
Those small contributions are indeed small, but that is with current energy consumption. That consumption will will have to decrease. How will it decrease? Charge 4 bucks a gallon next year. Charge 5 bucks a gallon in 3 years. Wash rinse and repeat.
So, you posit that the decline in gasoline consumption due to higher prices will not only decrease overall consumption, but allow for economic growth, and meet new demand from the coming 3 billion more by 2050?
I don't think you have thought his through yet.
Demand will only decrease with a population drop and an economic depression, as any growth requires an increase in energy consumption. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Fri Mar 23, 2007 12:54 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil will be our epiphany, and that's a good thing..
Code:
So, you posit that the decline in gasoline consumption due to higher prices will not only decrease overall consumption, but allow for economic growth, and meet new demand from the coming 3 billion more by 2050?
No I did not say there would be an economic growth. I do believe, though, there will be growth in alternative energy to resustitate the severe global economic depression which is inevitable because of secondary peak oil effects. But I don't think don't think the peak oil will result in armageddon. Yes people will suffer as many always have and on a larger scale, but I don't think my neighbor is going to bust through my house to raid my leftover bottled water like this dude:
So, how far off are they? 100%? 1000%? Still, an insignificant contribution. An ad hominem attack on Exxon doesn't refute the data.
I don't know. How off were the tobacco industry in predicting how safe smoking was? How off are fossil fuel energy corporation's scientists on global warming. Nothing like funding science that props one's bottom line.
Posted: Fri Mar 23, 2007 4:00 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil will be our epiphany, and that's a good thing..
burritos wrote:
Code:
So, you posit that the decline in gasoline consumption due to higher prices will not only decrease overall consumption, but allow for economic growth, and meet new demand from the coming 3 billion more by 2050?
No I did not say there would be an economic growth. I do believe, though, there will be growth in alternative energy to resustitate the severe global economic depression which is inevitable because of secondary peak oil effects.
Oh, so who will do without energy so that we can divert their energy to alterrnatives?
And what of the 3 billion newcomers?
What will they do for energy, jobs, clothing, housing if there is no energy for growth due to peak oil?
How will we service the debt?
No growth means no new loans.
The money supply deflates.
There is no money for investments in anything.
Quote:
I don't know. How off were the tobacco industry in predicting how safe smoking was? How off are fossil fuel energy corporation's scientists on global warming. Nothing like funding science that props one's bottom line.
Here's a lesson on this site for you. You cannot just shoot the messenger or just question the source, you have to refute the data and the facts.
You say you don't know how far off their projections are. Then how can you be so sure they are not spot on?
In 2000, the EIA estimated overall energy consumption will rise 60 percent from 1997 to 2020.
In 2006, The EIA projects world energy consumption to increase by 71 percent from 2003 to 2030 with fossil fuels continuing to supply much of the energy used worldwide, with oil remaining the dominant energy source.
In other words, there are no plans nor any considerations for a ramp up on the scale you envision...and if you think we can do it while in crisis mode with gas rationing at the pump and widespread economic chaos, you are just flat out dreaming.
That is not doomer thinking, that is reality based upon the facts.
EIA wrote:
To meet the projected increase in world oil demand in the reference case, total petroleum supply in 2030 will need to be 38 million barrels per day higher than the 2003 level of 80 million barrels per day.
You don't see the current projection of a 71% increase in energy demand making any growth from a solar/wind base of less than 1% rather insignificant?
Quote:
Rising fossil fuel prices also allow renewable energy sources to compete economically in the electric power sector. Consumption of hydroelectricity and other gridconnected renewable energy sources expands by 2.4 percent per year—approximately the same as the rates of growth projected for natural gas and coal—and the renewable energy share of the world’s total energy consumption increases from 8 percent in 2003 to 9 percent in 2030. Much of the projected growth in renewable electricity generation results from the expected completion of large hydroelectric facilities in non-OECD nations...
What bottom line are they trying to prop up? _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Fri Mar 23, 2007 4:04 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil will be our epiphany, and that's a good thing..
burritos wrote:
But I don't think don't think the peak oil will result in armageddon. Yes people will suffer as many always have and on a larger scale, but I don't think my neighbor is going to bust through my house to raid my leftover bottled water like this dude:
Some do, but not most. You can't use the extreme fringe to make your point. The points made here so far have not been zombie hoard thinking, but rational reasonable assessments based upon the current facts and data. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Fri Mar 23, 2007 7:28 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil will be our epiphany, and that's a good thing..
It's apparent to me that I don't have the data to counter all the info you have to support your arguments. I'm here to elighten myself cause I do have a baby and his future is of concern to me.
On top of global warming, disastrous economic turmoil(from the RE bubble burst though that's probably more just short term), infinite war in the middle east, and now peak oil, it seems like there's no hope for him and his generation.
If the non-doomer rational thinking says we're going to hell in a handbasket, who am I to say otherwise. I can try to refute your tangible data and the logical extrapolations and conclusions of that data with optimistic feelings on human resourcefulness, but it's probably gullible at best.
Man has been proclaiming the second coming since he was walking on 2 feet. Sounds like we might be finally getting a self fulfilling prophecy(minus the floating angelic hippy looking guy)
Posted: Fri Mar 23, 2007 8:08 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil will be our epiphany, and that's a good thing..
burritos wrote:
It's apparent to me that I don't have the data to counter all the info you have to support your arguments. I'm here to elighten myself cause I do have a baby and his future is of concern to me.
On top of global warming, disastrous economic turmoil(from the RE bubble burst though that's probably more just short term), infinite war in the middle east, and now peak oil, it seems like there's no hope for him and his generation.
If the non-doomer rational thinking says we're going to hell in a handbasket, who am I to say otherwise.
Well, welcome to the forum. As you can see, we will hold you feet to the fire.
Spend some time here reading. Start with my Best of MonteQuest for a broad overview of the issues.
Hell in a handbasket? Not sure about that, but it does appear there are no quick fixes, and the time to mitigate is running short or about out.
I feel we just may go from complacency to panic, as most people are just watching and waiting and doing little else to prepare.
Coming here to elighten yourself puts you and your baby well ahead of the game. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Fri Mar 23, 2007 8:33 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil will be our epiphany, and that's a good thing..
MonteQuest wrote:
Some do, but not most. You can't use the extreme fringe to make your point. The points made here so far have not been zombie hoard thinking, but rational reasonable assessments based upon the current facts and data.
Hm this is a very unreasonable statement, considering the endorsement by certain people around here of "instantaneous nuclear elimination of population centers as an act of mercy". Of course it has been almost two years and people tend to forget ....
How about the ad nauseum proliferation of gun threads? Are they the acts of people making reasonable assessments based on current facts or data or wishful zombie hoard thinking? _________________ "Nuclear power has long been to the Left what embryonic-stem-cell research is to the Right--irredeemably wrong and a signifier of moral weakness."Esquire Magazine,12/05
The genetic code is commaless and so are my posts.
Joined: Mar 12, 2007 Posts: 1009 Location: As close as I can get to the beginning of the pipe.
Posted: Fri Mar 23, 2007 8:53 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil will be our epiphany, and that's a good thing..
MonteQuest wrote:
Hell in a handbasket? Not sure about that, but it does appear there are no quick fixes, and the time to mitigate is running short or about out.
I think we can stick a fork in it. The question of when for peak oil is answered. Daniel Yergin has caved. The ultimate indicator.
Quote:
"We will see a concentration of growth in liquid production capacity within the O-15,” said Yergin, who was asked to make the presentation on energy security. “After two decades of working off excess capacity, global energy supply is now dominated by the growth challenge.”
Posted: Fri Mar 23, 2007 11:06 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil will be our epiphany, and that's a good thing..
EnergySpin wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:
Some do, but not most. You can't use the extreme fringe to make your point. The points made here so far have not been zombie hoard thinking, but rational reasonable assessments based upon the current facts and data.
Hm this is a very unreasonable statement, considering the endorsement by certain people around here of "instantaneous nuclear elimination of population centers as an act of mercy". Of course it has been almost two years and people tend to forget ....
How about the ad nauseum proliferation of gun threads? Are they the acts of people making reasonable assessments based on current facts or data or wishful zombie hoard thinking?
I was referring to this thread and the points made here. You won't find the extreme fringe threads on the Peak Oil Discussion forum either. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
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As you can see, we will hold you feet to the fire.
