Joined: May 15, 2005 Posts: 4144 Location: THE MATRIX
Posted: Wed Apr 04, 2007 2:29 pm Post subject: Re: A Little Advice Please...
Organizing the key issues hmmm
I keep going round in circles as so much (virtually everything) is interconnected...
One thing I think you should consider and I know we want to "ram er home" yet they will have doubts and showing some doubt yourself will show them you are not dogmatic about any particular aspect yet how to do that effectively?
Ok an example:
"We could make a strong move toward alternatives and conservation yet to date we have not and the feasibility of the various alternatives seems to be biased/politically motivated so will we ever make the move and if and when we do will it be the right move or ultimately only confound the problem?"
I think it is sometimes best to leave them thinking/wondering and not to simply use problem=solution logic.
Problem = solution is effective and many authors/writers/producers have been criticized for effectively planting a bomb and running away so of course the sheeple see that and run away.
It might be a bomb but we have some wire cutters, a schematic and some brave people who are willing to cut the cord....and it may be a bomb and we have these things yet will it work?
"Science has been on the verge of nanotechnology and nuclear fission for decades and in the words of the father of nanotechnology the late Dr. smalley it may take another 50 years before we get to the point of actually finding a way to implement these technologies"
Crush their denial and rationalization without mercy yet do so in a way that it does not destroy their hope as well.
That is no small feat.
Hmm...
1: PO What? quick overview - hubbard-campbell-heinberg-hirsch-gao-usgs-iea and maybe even a moment to laugh at abiotic oil somewhat proving that you have examined all sides of the issue and move on.
2: PO When? same as above quickly then move on
Maybe do an actual estimate based on the predictions we have and contrast that to the ridiculous GAO estimate of "from now to after your death so dont worry about it" 40 years from now.
3: PO How? total dependency, the possible ramifications, resource war, poverty, famine et al briefly then move on
4: PO Where? everywhere of course, variances in how PO will effect Local versus Regional Versus National versus international - the scope of the problem and I think this segment might take a few minutes
5: PO Who? a good time to name ASPO USA, all the regional and local chapters of PO groups, actions and thoughts of high ranking officials Bartlett for the repugs and maybe al gore for the dems in the room that support mitigation now including those of foriegn origin.
Careful as the Al gore mention could launch this puppy into the realm of climate change and even though I think you should "go there" momentarily I am concerned that partisan politics and or simple denial may overwhelm the issue of Peak Oil.
Like simmons said "in a few years we may see Peak Oil overtake the topic of Climate change" yet as of this moment in time that is definately not the case so beware the familiar as it is a hot topic which everyone seems to have a strong opinion about one way or the other.
Wouldnt it be nice to know something about the people you will be addressing? Wouldnt it be nice to take a quick poll and see how they feel about certain issues prior to the show?
hmmmm.....
Sorry as I completely forgot that this will all revolve around End of Suburbia..... so do all those things as long as EOS doesnt already do them or if EOS doesnt cover each particular issue well enough in your opinion otherwise consider it a freebie.
Heh I would be poopin my pants in your position _________________ It is easier to enslave a people that wish to remain free then it is to free a people who wish to remain enslaved.
Posted: Wed Apr 04, 2007 3:01 pm Post subject: Re: A Little Advice Please...
Hi, Aaron. I think it's very exciting that you're taking this on - it's a great opportunity.
I agree with Shannymara that it's important to stress how dependent we are on oil products, also the huge portion of oil used in the US for transportation of people and goods and how in North America we've come to rely on foods transported long distances.
A couple of things that really struck me when I was trying to absorb Peak Oil and oil depletion issues:
- the graphs that show oil discoveries in the US in the early years compared to the current ratio of barrels discovered/barrels used
- graphs showing the US's peak and decline, as an example
- also, as I know I've mentioned a couple of times in these forums - the map at the Wolf at the Door site, which shows all the oil-producing countries and their known reserves. I understood finiteness of oil after seeing this map, as it showed that each country has an exact amount of oil in reserves and how long it would take for the world to use that country's oil. It also shows, for the newbie, how much oil really is in the ME compared to the rest of the world, but that it's also finite. Mentioning OPEC's paper barrels would show further that there may not be as much oil available as we think there is.
Posted: Wed Apr 04, 2007 3:14 pm Post subject: Re: A Little Advice Please...
Well, I suppose your mandate is to offer insight into how peak oil (and natural gas) will affect Houston over time, and what the mayor's office and individual citizens might do about it.
I would start off the talk by doing a better job of explaining peak oil (and why it is probably coming now/soon) than the film does. You could use the oil production graphs from the 20 most important oil-producing nations as evidence. Other graphs showing falling oil discovery would be helpful, too. You might make the point that ultimately all that matters to the USA is how much oil is available for us to import, not necessarily how much is produced globally; and that the oil remaining is often found in countries that don't like us very much.
Once you've established that the fossil energy that Americans enjoy is definitely going to decrease or at least become much more expensive, move on to what that will likely mean for Houston relevant to its energy industry, jobs, transportation, real estate, population and climate issues, etc.
Then move on to mitigation by offering a few win/win solutions that would be smart no matter what (like promoting gardens, carpooling, bicycling), and then also touch on other more drastic or painful 'adjustments' that might be necessary.
Joined: Mar 18, 2006 Posts: 1149 Location: Last outpost of Civilisation
Posted: Wed Apr 04, 2007 4:56 pm Post subject: Re: A Little Advice Please...
Hi Aaron,
I've found one line that always works (especially with people over 40):
...Remember, back in the mid-70's, when they told us we had about another 30 years of oil left..
I usually follow that with a quick recap of the efforts that various countries made to find substitutes for oil - at the time - and wrap it up by saying that the only way we ever *really* figured out to make more energy - hah hah - was to find more oil...
...By which time even the average listener will have done the math on the first statement. You WILL have their attention for a few minutes after that. From that point on, best of luck (grin).
JPL _________________ The three most beautiful things in the world -
a full-rigged ship, a woman with child and a full moon.
Joined: Aug 26, 2005 Posts: 393 Location: Windy City No Longer
Posted: Wed Apr 04, 2007 5:09 pm Post subject: Re: A Little Advice Please...
Everyone has offered some great advice on what to say, so I'll offer some advice on what not to say:
Don't make Peak Oil a value judgment on today's society. It sure means that all the things we love (car-based life, plastic gewgaws, KFC) will probably go away, but people will mostly tune out if they think you're judging them.
Don't let this get portrayed as a "green issue." Most of the conservatives will dismiss it out of hand if they think its some lefty treehugger cause. (Apologies to the many conservative folks on this board - you know what I mean). It's a science issue.
Don't forget to give them hope. Kunstler always seems upset that people ask him what to do and he doesn't have a solution. Well... there is no "good" solution, but there are things that can be done. Let them hang onto that. In Houston, stress how important the remaining oil will be to help transition to a solar-powered world (or something).
Don't mention the word apocolypse. Explain to people that it isn't the end of the world - just the end of the world they grew up in. At the bar later, you can get doomerish.
Don't graph them to death. Unless you're a really witty speaker, you could bore them to death. (From a Dieoff perspective, maybe that's the way to go...but I digress)
Don't forget to prepare counterarguments in advance. There might not be any serious debunkers there, but you will get the "they said this in 1978" people and others. Disagree congenially.
This should be a wonderful opportunity. Not everyone will get it, but it should be a great experience. End of Suburbia has some good info and is kind of entertaining to boot.
Hope this helps. Can't wait to hear the recap. _________________ TANSTAAFL
Joined: Nov 18, 2004 Posts: 1059 Location: Central Texas
Posted: Wed Apr 04, 2007 5:16 pm Post subject:
Since you're giving the talk at Rice University, what better reinforcement than to mention the late Dr. Smalley's own views on PO? _________________ About my avatar: Guess.
Since you're giving the talk at Rice University, what better reinforcement than to mention the late Dr. Smalley's own views on PO?
I certainly will.
You can actually listen to an interview I did with Dr. Smalley just before he passed right here @ po.com. See MP3 in the left menu. (terrible-sound) _________________ "When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.
Joined: Mar 26, 2005 Posts: 3687 Location: over here
Posted: Wed Apr 04, 2007 7:01 pm Post subject: Re: A Little Advice Please...
taking one of the PO primers (like the one from energy bulletin) as your guide and work it out with points you feel are important yourself would be the way I would go around it. _________________ "The best thing about the future is that it comes only one day at a time."
Posted: Thu Apr 05, 2007 8:11 am Post subject: Re: A Little Advice Please...
Many of these post offer very good advice. However, no matter what you say, no one will understand. That’s because Peak Oil will sound like a problem and problems have solutions, right, so solutions will occupy their minds. It will take a long time for reality to sink in. Most, of course, will never get to that point, having arrived at one or more “solutions” that will perpetuate the illusion of “happy motoring.”
So where we headed with this whole peak oil thing?
Is peak oil the catalyst to the coming Dark Age? Or, will the madness of fractional reserve banking do us in first? Well, after a tour of peak oil’s consequences, it’s a good time to bring up the good times just over the horizon. True, those good times may be a considerable distance ahead, but how do you wish to contemplate the demise of the fossil fuel driven industrial age? You can bray doom and gloom or, more positively, recognize the golden opportunity thrust upon us. It’s how we respond that will write the future
Everywhere we look we find writers telling us how badly we’ve screwed up so there’s no lack of information. Kunstler keeps harping on people who “twang” on him for not offering solutions to peak oil, proof that it takes a change of mind to realize that modern life is the problem.
The solution will arise out of people committed to way of life where love trumps fear. That’s not something we can achieve simply adjusting modern life to energy shortages. The answer is a new way of life, which, if we could suddenly be transported to that far distant time, we may mistake for Heaven. _________________ Who is John Galt?
Posted: Thu Apr 05, 2007 9:16 am Post subject: Re: A Little Advice Please...
The most fascinating aspect of PO to me is the discrepancy between grasping the concept (the math skill required is not exceeding the level of a 6 year old) and the fact that it is viciously denied access to mainstream debate. This is not comming from a controlled force (the press) but from the individuals themselves.
I guess this has to do with the implications of PO which touch all of us on a personal level, one way or another and which pose a threat to the whole house of cards which we refer to usually as 'normal live' and 'business as usual'.
Life After or Dieoff.org are nothing but reflections on the understanding and the willingingnes of facing our own mortality and this topic (mortality or in other words our expiration date and the novel recognition that there is on in the first place, less on a personal but more on a societal or even civilizational level) is usually hogged up by religious groups that historically always have claimed this arena their monopole, so any PO discussion enters a realm right in the onset which falls in the category ' politics or religion', which one is supposed to avoid in public debate since everyones dirty laundry is piling up there.
There must be a mechanism that causes this general amnesia and in selected individuals it is faulty (the crowd here on this forum is the best example). At closest the average Joe comes to recognize the problem (PO) results usually in the 'conservation reflex' (using less energy) and as we all know and discussed ad absurdum it is nothing but a reflex.
Joined: Oct 16, 2004 Posts: 1379 Location: Appalachian Foothills of Virginia
Posted: Thu Apr 05, 2007 9:35 am Post subject: Re: A Little Advice Please...
What I found to have a striking impact (beyond the graphs) are pictures of abandoned oil fields, other imagery of oil decline, like lines at gas pumps from the 1970s, and pictures from the Great Depression.
Terms like "slow motion train wreck", "final oil crisis", etc impart the necessary emotive effect required to allow the concept to actually sink in (instead of the students at the end saying "dudes, let's hit the Rathskeller after this!").
Joined: Dec 03, 2004 Posts: 1135 Location: Seattle, Wa.
Posted: Thu Apr 05, 2007 10:48 am Post subject: Re: A Little Advice Please...
This thread is a great refresher on how to introduce PO to an uninformed audience. I can't think of anything to add to the outstanding suggestions except to relate what was a turning point for me in being convinced that the issue was real.
I lived in Alberta for three years. When I saw the money and investments pouring into Ft. McMurray that was an early alarm signal. If there was still abundant cheap oil around why are oil companies installing such a massive infratructure for a costly low yielding process of mining bitumin and converting it into oil. What further proof that liquid crude reserves are tenuous? _________________ Our resiliency resembles an invasive weed. We are the Kudzu Ape
Posted: Thu Apr 05, 2007 1:24 pm Post subject: Re: A Little Advice Please...
Hey, Aaron, the links below are from The Oil Depletion Protocol site - are you familiar with it?
I don't know how much you'll get into actions/solutions in your presentation, but since you are meeting with a group connected to the mayor's office, I thought the information on this site may be helpful, if not for this presentation but maybe at a later date:
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