Bakhtiari: The Peak of Global Production has been reached

MonteQuest

What if it is no gas at any price?

What if gas has to be rationed at $100/barrel for oil?

Demand destruction will only occur in countries who cannot afford to pony up the price.

In the US, price increases have not caused the conservation that it did in the 70's and 80's.

I flat don't see demand destruction outpacing demand at any price.

This isn't just any ol' commodity, this is the base commodity of energy upon which all else depends.
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billp · Posted: Tue Apr 03, 2007 5:12 pm Post subject: Green revolution

davep

MonteQuest

davep

Fair enough. I thought you were referring to thread contributions, Montequest, not to the general consensus.
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billp

grabby · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Nov 08, 2005 Posts: 1328

TreebeardsUncle · Intermediate Crude Joined: Jun 15, 2006 Posts: 527

Look. Oil was up to $78/barrel and that was no big deal here in the states. Demand is still growing at this level. Gas is over $3/gallon in Ca and a great many people are making no changes. Gas could more than double in price and most people would not change their ways much. They would just have more credit card debt.
Now, $300/barrel oil would lead to gas being around $12/gallon in California. That would change the economic equation involved in commuting. It would be advantageous financially to live closer to work instead of to drive a long distance to find cheaper housing.
Also suburbanites would be less willing to drive long distances just to get houses with more square footage. Thus houses in the outer suburbs would be relatively less vaulable than those in the inner suburbs. Trucking will take a hit by the time gas gets up to $7/gallon or so. Rural poor commuters and the big 3 will take a hit at a subtantially lower price, by $5/gallon. Governments will also find it excessively expensive to pave the way for developers in that range as well.

G

oilcanboyd

Well lets look at demand destruction senarios. since transportation is 70% of the barrel, John Q Public would be the first hit, while science and Tech institutions would get top priority in doing R&D work to over come this problem. Given human instinct we would (politicians) rely in developement of alternative methods to adopt to alternatives. Factories would change over to produce what ever the scientists deemed fit. Mass deployment of the next gadget to save us.

Like Simmons says and others, the numbers data is not accurate enough, but through different models, its suggested someone had better pick up the pace and do something. I believe consumerism and travel will be hit first then the rest of the sectors will fall in decline later. Keep the work force productive as long a possible for humanity reasons- ( provide heating and food etc) but no drag races or Nascar on the weekends any more.

May be its time to model various senarios along decline lines?

I find it pure coincidence that yesterday the movie "A crude Awakening" was made available on dvd to the public up here in Canada, and our national newpaper articled a story on peak oil, first time I read this in a paper.

OCB

oilcanboyd

Another thought just crossed my mind,.. does anyone think the lower 48 would re-open the idle wells that "gone dry" and extract addtional oil from them, there is approx 500K wells that were shut-in at 2000ppm oil in water content.

OCB

Dreamtwister · Fission Joined: Feb 06, 2006 Posts: 2040

grabby · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Nov 08, 2005 Posts: 1328

Loderunner

I recall that here in Metro DC post-Katrina, gas prices rose fairly significantly. It wasn't as bad as Atlanta or other parts South, but it did make an impact. The local news station did a survey asking people if they had changed their driving habits. About 90% of those surveyed said "yes." They would either ride the Metro more (there was record ridership, IIRC), or consolidate errands.

That being said, I think there certainly would be some changes to people's driving habits if/when gas prices soar. But, not everyone lives near decent public transportation. I'm originally from Pennsylvania, which seems to be nothing but sprawl from Philadelphia to Pittsburgh. What are those people going to do about travel? There's only so much carpooling and consolidation of trips to Wal-Mart/Target/Giant Foods that you can do.

In addition, I think everyone around here kinda knew that post-Katrina gas prices would eventually ease. In the long run, I think you would see people making more drastic changes to their lifestyles.

I see a lot of people talking about Demand Destruction. I'm not quite sure that I understand the debate. If prices skyrocket, there will be some effect on demand, of that I have no doubt. If things really get out of control (like a prolonged recession), it seems that would effect demand as well. But, that's not the point, I think. The point is that we'd be in a prolonged recession, that would be the crisis. What happens after that is anybody's guess.

Bas

MonteQuest