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Aaron
800 lb Gorilla
Joined: Apr 15, 2004
Posts: 6315
Location: Houston
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 Posted: Mon Apr 09, 2007 2:12 pm Post subject: Re: A Little Advice Please... |
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| RonMN wrote: | Aaron, just a quick question...
If somebody asks "do YOU believe there will have to be a significant die-off of world population?"
How do you intend to respond? |
I would remind everyone that in excess of 10 million people starved to death last year alone.
Dieoff coming?
Pfft...
In progress is more like it.
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RonMN
Fission
Joined: Mar 18, 2005
Posts: 2537
Location: Minnesota
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| Posted: Mon Apr 09, 2007 4:21 pm Post subject: Re: A Little Advice Please... |
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That's a fair response...and you & I can deal with that...But a college crowd?
I ask you again to bring a shield 
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Quis custodiet ipsos custodes. |
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PrairieMule
Moderator
Joined: Sep 02, 2005
Posts: 2757
Location: In a Nigerian compound surrounded by mighty dignataries
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| Posted: Mon Apr 09, 2007 4:36 pm Post subject: Re: A Little Advice Please... |
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Aaron,
I'd like to say there is no one else here that could represent this website than yourself. I'm not sure what kind of public speaker you are, but the best advice for addressing a crowd can boiled down to a simple concept.
Often folks who address large crowds will get physical manifestations of anxiety that are mistaken that they are going to loose it."Oh crap! Look at all these people. I hope I don't blow it" . In reality the the body is doing one of two things: fight or flight. All to often a public speaker who really commands expertise on a subject will think his body is telling him to" fly" when in fact it is preparing him to "fight". So if you show up and get "stunned" by a mass or a collective of cornucopian smart asses try and visualize it will go down something like this: If I am not mistaken you hold a black belt in some martial art, so think of it like 30 min sparring match with a dozen yellow belts in front of 100 tournament spectators. The gentle art of persuasion is no different than a Aikido practitioner using his opponent's own force against themselves.
You know this stuff. Wipe the floor with them.
As we speak 171 people worldwide have access to watch me fall flat on my ass as I type. So what? Public speaking is no different. Not sure if that is the real advice you seek but I have every faith you will open minds there just as you do here every day.
Now with that knowledge, you are twice as effective as someone armed with a regurgitated Kunstler talking points.
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RonMN
Fission
Joined: Mar 18, 2005
Posts: 2537
Location: Minnesota
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| Posted: Mon Apr 09, 2007 7:20 pm Post subject: Re: A Little Advice Please... |
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Prairie Mule Wrote:
You know this stuff. Wipe the floor with them.
Normally I would agree...but this is not a matter of who is right! This is a matter of whom survives!
And it's a gonna get ugly!
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Quis custodiet ipsos custodes. |
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Concerned
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Sep 23, 2004
Posts: 1453
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| Posted: Tue Apr 10, 2007 5:36 am Post subject: Re: A Little Advice Please... |
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| PrairieMule wrote: |
You know this stuff. Wipe the floor with them.
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If you honestly believe in what you are talking about you will have Zero problems.
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Aaron
800 lb Gorilla
Joined: Apr 15, 2004
Posts: 6315
Location: Houston
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| Posted: Tue Apr 10, 2007 6:11 am Post subject: Re: A Little Advice Please... |
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I'm not intimidated by public speaking, and have done a fair bit of it in my life.
I'm also not concerned about Lander's objections... I rather hope for some objections in Q&A to help clarify the topic.
I'll post up my current draft presentation later today, time permitting, for the community to dissect.
I'd like to do a PeakSpeak session & try it out on you guys.
Perhaps tonight?
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"We shall not cease from exploration
And the end of all our exploring
Will be to arrive where we started
And know the place for the first time." - TS Eliot* |
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PrairieMule
Moderator
Joined: Sep 02, 2005
Posts: 2757
Location: In a Nigerian compound surrounded by mighty dignataries
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| Posted: Tue Apr 10, 2007 10:05 am Post subject: Re: A Little Advice Please... |
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| RonMN wrote: | Prairie Mule Wrote:
You know this stuff. Wipe the floor with them.
Normally I would agree...but this is not a matter of who is right! This is a matter of whom survives!
And it's a gonna get ugly! |
Good to hear you are comfortable in front of a crowd.
Good luck!
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In other words, it's a huge sh*t sandwich, and we're all gonna have to take a bite.-from Full Metal Jacket |
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Aaron
800 lb Gorilla
Joined: Apr 15, 2004
Posts: 6315
Location: Houston
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| Posted: Wed Apr 11, 2007 6:08 am Post subject: Re: A Little Advice Please... |
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Draft Presentaion
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"We shall not cease from exploration
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PrairieMule
Moderator
Joined: Sep 02, 2005
Posts: 2757
Location: In a Nigerian compound surrounded by mighty dignataries
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| Posted: Wed Apr 11, 2007 11:33 am Post subject: Re: A Little Advice Please... |
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Looks tight.
How a about quick mention of how dependent we are for cheap abunant energy in American retail logistics with a image like this to show what life could be like w/o cheap energy.
That might drive the message home.
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In other words, it's a huge sh*t sandwich, and we're all gonna have to take a bite.-from Full Metal Jacket |
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Shannymara
Semi-retired Admin
Joined: Oct 04, 2004
Posts: 4690
Location: Oklahoma
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| Posted: Wed Apr 11, 2007 2:28 pm Post subject: Re: A Little Advice Please... |
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Wow, lots of info there - how much time do you have to speak? It looks good, though. Only a couple of other comments. In the slide on Jeavons, is the 2nd apostrophe correct? I think it should be removed. Also, where's the slide about why this is such a big deal? Are you going to talk about that on the "What's in a barrel" slide, or the "Impact" slide, or...? I think most people really don't get that, like I said before (just my opinion). I really, really like the closing slide before the Q&A one. Nice.
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seahorse2
Expert
Joined: Oct 18, 2004
Posts: 1770
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| Posted: Wed Apr 11, 2007 2:40 pm Post subject: Re: A Little Advice Please... |
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Aaron,
Slides look good if you have time to explain what all those complex graphs really mean. However, next to the slide on Hubbard, I would also mention some modern prominent businessman like Texas billionair Rainwater and some of his dire quotes - just to show this isn't some nut whackos on the internet believing this.
I think its also important to drive home the fact that the gov't knows:
(1) slides quoting from Bush quoting his last two state of the Unions that we have to get off of oil - obvious implication why?
(2) Hirsch report for DOE talking about how dire it is if we don't have enough lead time;
(3) GAO report you have;
(4) Baker Institute report in 2001 saying US could become a third world country (everyone knows who Baker is);
(5) Congressman Bartless leading charge on PO;
(6) Basic questions like, how much did it cost everyone to fill up last time, and why are gas prices rising? Myth, Arabs holding out on us, but that may not be the problem. What would it mean to us and the rest of the world if Saudi Arabian oil production went into decline like Texas did in the 70s. Challenge everyone to go out and find out why gas prices are rising, why fuel inventories are dropping. |
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mmasters
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Apr 16, 2006
Posts: 1817
Location: Mid-Atlantic
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| Posted: Wed Apr 11, 2007 2:44 pm Post subject: Re: A Little Advice Please... |
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Looks awesome.
Only thing seems missing from the slides is more extrapolation on how society is completely hinged on derivatives of oil.
Food:
Commercial crops, fertilizer, meat, etc...
Industry:
manufacturing, plastic, etc...
Globalization:
tee shirts from china, berries from Chile and all that jazz...
....
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Just look at us. Everything is backwards; everything is upside down. Doctors destory health, lawyers destroy justice, universities destroy knowledge, governments destroy freedom, the major media destroy information and religions destroy spirituality. |
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Concerned
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Sep 23, 2004
Posts: 1453
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| Posted: Wed Apr 11, 2007 3:22 pm Post subject: |
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I think it's a great presentation.
Expect most objections to revolve around conservation e.g. insulation, flourscent lightbulbs, hybrid cars and continued technological advances in increasing recoverable reserves.
Thats been my experiene when discussing PO. Oh another objection I get is the belief that there is heaps of the stuff (oil) out there.
I think you have your bases covered with good counter arguments.
Knock em out
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"Once the game is over, the king and the pawn go back in the same box."
-Italian Proverb |
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dinopello
Fission
Joined: May 13, 2005
Posts: 2312
Location: Arlington, VA
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| Posted: Thu Apr 12, 2007 1:30 pm Post subject: Re: A Little Advice Please... |
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Looks good to me. One suggestion is rather than that bar graph labelled World Oil Consumption which I found took a little time to understand - there is a map on Bartlett's Energy Page in PDF format that shows this much more dramatically and hits home the geo-political issue
Link to page
The graphic is called "The World according to Oil" |
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Aaron
800 lb Gorilla
Joined: Apr 15, 2004
Posts: 6315
Location: Houston
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| Posted: Thu Apr 19, 2007 9:33 am Post subject: Re: A Little Advice Please... |
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The event went well.
No cornucopians I spoke with... mostly questions about oil substitutes & urban sustainability issues.
Not long enough.
_________________
"We shall not cease from exploration
And the end of all our exploring
Will be to arrive where we started
And know the place for the first time." - TS Eliot* |
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