For a minute there I thought I had to get off my couch, when all the while the fact is we don't have to do anything much but keep things afloat for just a few decades more! In fact, we'd best shut up about PO, because if our offspring finds out we knew about it all along, they'll turn and wring our necks come 2036!
Posted: Mon Apr 16, 2007 8:08 am Post subject: Re: Need help from European PO.com viewers
Gazzatrone wrote:
This may not be about price but something equally annoying if not more so. I reside in London UK so if anyone else has noticed this please feel free to substantiate it if you can recall. My gripe is that lately forecourts are increasingly placing "out of order" signs on the ordinary unleaded, with only the higher priced unleaded available.
Posted: Mon Apr 16, 2007 8:10 am Post subject: Re: Need help from European PO.com viewers
Quote:
Pup55 are you predicting gasoline shortages
Let us just say that some calculations we are doing suggest that unless some really unusual events happen, the US Unleaded inventories will continue to drop to multi-year low levels, maybe between now and mid-June.
Whether that causes enough strain on the system to have actual "shortages" develop, we do not know for sure. I can pretty well predict the inventory levels, but I am not sure about the "shortages" since we do not have a precedent, but there are some that believe that this will be the case. We are already seeing some spot shortages in California, which is the region of the country with the lowest inventories right now.
One of the ways this condition can be avoided is a big influx of exports from Europe/imports into the US, which is exactly what happened last year about this time. During May 2006, we imported as much as 1.6 mbpd of finished products into the US, about 50% more than normal, and this pretty much gave us enough cushion to avoid any major problems.
One of the other ways this condition can be avoided is a really rapid increase in refinery utilization, and strong production throughout the summer. This type of event also took place last year. Right now, our refinery system is kind of worn down because of deferred maintenance since Hurricane Katrina in late 2005, and there has been a lot of unplanned downtime.
So what I am saying is that unless one or both of these things happens again this year, there will be a lot of pressure on the system, because, stupidly, the demand in the US is still high, despite higher prices and an apparently slowing economy.
What I am seeing from some of the other posters is that imports are not expected to average much higher than they are right now, and I was looking for some clues from some of the European forum dwellers as to whether there was anything unusual going on over there in the marketplace.
We will also be monitoring the news for reports of more refinery outages.
But, until we get some more information, I think I will take the above poster's advice and fix up the bike just in case.
As you can see, the price has been creeping upwards. In february, gas (95E) was below 1.2 EUR/l, but now it's close to 1.3 EUR/l. The brent oil chart is in liters, so it's confusing. The polttoaine.net web site tracks fuel prices in Finland. When Katrina stuck the price for 95E was 1.5 EUR/l for a few days.
1,3€ = 1,77$ and 1 gallon is 3,785 litre so 1 gallon costs 6.70$ here in Finland. Someone can say 75% of the price is taxes, but that not helps us on the pump. We need to pay that! Do I get it right?
Maybe pup55 wants to know that then the gasprice last time went up in February, and the increase came to news the reader said in subordinate clause that further increases at the gasprises are on the way. Never explained what he exactly meaned.
Posted: Mon Apr 16, 2007 7:06 pm Post subject: Re: Need help from European PO.com viewers
Quote:
increasingly placing "out of order" signs on the ordinary unleaded
Quote:
Since last week's update, unleaded has risen 0.8p per litre, or 6c per US gallon
This is the type of information that I am interested in--that suggests that fuel is being taken away from the UK market.
Quote:
the gasprice last time went up in February, and the increase came to news the reader said in subordinate clause that further increases at the gasprises are on the way
Yes, this is exactly what I am looking for, except I am more interested in whether it is happening right now.
Posted: Tue Apr 17, 2007 3:07 pm Post subject: Re: Need help from European PO.com viewers
The 0.1p per litre per day increase in average UK pump prices for ordinary unleaded has continued for another two days. This trend has been pretty steady for over a week now, but still represents prices lower than the spike in 2000 in real terms.
Something I wish to point out, however: diesel remains over 2p per litre more expensive, which is within norms. Since it is unleaded and not diesel that we would be exporting to the US, I would expect significant draining of unleaded inventories to cause that gap to close at the very least. A solid, representative price signal would probably send unleaded prices above diesel. If that happens, it would be pretty freaky, transparently obvious, and I would definitely let you know.
However, the petrol station operators could mask that price signal by increasing diesel prices in step, irrespective of diesel availability. Supplier pressure or franchisee opportunism could achieve this, but not everywhere. On the one hand this would keep a large part of the motoring lobby out of the news if they thought everyone was suffering equally, on the other hand it wouldn't escape the transport industry's notice. And given the popularity of diesel cars, it would deal many people an unnecessary economic hit. So at a stretch it could be done by stealth, but past some threshold it would still be obvious.
The other thing we could see is a rundown of inventories and onset of sporadic shortages without a corresponding price signal. I'm hoping no European government would be that stupid, but you do have the benefit of having several canaries in the mine.
Anyway, just some things to bear in mind and use as a point of reference in future. We'll see what's up in a week or two. I have to say though, with crude prices being what they are, I don't see any of the above being likely. The US could be stuck this summer.
Posted: Thu Apr 26, 2007 12:36 pm Post subject: Re: Need help from European PO.com viewers
Nine days on, and the national average pump price is up 1.0p per litre to 93.6p per litre for unleaded. Diesel has risen slightly more slowly, to 95.7p per litre, the price difference narrowing by 0.3p over the last couple of weeks. My nearest petrol station continues to sell at 91.9p and 93.9p respectively, once again falling behind the national average.
This increase corresponds to 7.6c per gallon, although it has to be remembered that most of the $7.09 price we pay is tax. And by historic standards, we are still not paying extraordinary prices.
In other words, no significant price activity in the UK. In fact, so far in my vicinity, the price has gone up only 2p per litre (15c per gallon) in the last 1-2 months.
Posted: Thu Apr 26, 2007 2:02 pm Post subject: Re: Need help from European PO.com viewers
thor wrote:
So why are you guys worrying? You want expensive driving then come to Europe!
The 2000 fuel protests in the UK showed that you can experience physical shortage without having unaffordable prices. Unleaded was on sale at 80p per litre in some places, 85p per litre in others, the national average climbed past 90p, a handful of independent stations raised it to 100p. You could take your pick of which price you wanted to pay - the stations were shut. That's what the US might be facing this summer. They may not realise it, but there might be no point raising the price past $4. Absence sets an effective price ceiling by making further increases meaningless.
Posted: Thu Apr 26, 2007 2:22 pm Post subject: Re: Need help from European PO.com viewers
dukey wrote:
my local petrol station sells petrol for 99p a litre
I'm guessing the South East or remote areas of Wales or Scotland?
In my experience the price distribution is a bellcurve heavily skewed towards lower values, with prices cheap near major transport routes (and large number of outlets giving an average towards the bottom end of the range), while places where it is a huge pain in the ass to deliver (Greater London, North Wales, rural Scotland) see vendors charging an arm and a leg. The latter is also true of petrol stations with a captive market, such as motorway service stations.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5487 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Thu Apr 26, 2007 3:00 pm Post subject: Re: Need help from European PO.com viewers
I have an additional request of those in Europe. Based on available information, it looks like some or all of Antwerp’s refinery workers will go on strike on May 9 and/or May 10. It also appears to involve just three refineries - Total SA 360,000 barrel-a-day, Exxon Mobil Corp. 275,000 barrel-a-day refinery, and Petroplus 110,000 barrel-a-day refinery. This totals 745,000 bpd.
The effect of this potential strike could help cause shortages in the US as early as Memorial Day (end of May). I would appreciate any local updates as to whether the strike will go ahead, what refineries are involved, and if there are any indications how long this will last. From what we know now, it appears serious. Thanks all. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Joined: Aug 18, 2005 Posts: 525 Location: Belgium, Europe
Posted: Thu Apr 26, 2007 4:02 pm Post subject: Re: Need help from European PO.com viewers
yep reporting from Antwerp here
the labour organisations are negotiating a new 'cao' with the employers
their logic is, the oil companies are making huge profits, the employees want some too, so they're demanding a salary rise
on monday two big labour organisations filed an official strike notification and yesterday the third big labour organisation did too
but they're willing to negotiate one last time before going on strike
my guess is, they will go on strike starting the 10th of may _________________ www.peakoil.be
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5487 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Thu Apr 26, 2007 4:45 pm Post subject: Re: Need help from European PO.com viewers
sameu wrote:
yep reporting from Antwerp here
the labour organisations are negotiating a new 'cao' with the employers
their logic is, the oil companies are making huge profits, the employees want some too, so they're demanding a salary rise
on monday two big labour organisations filed an official strike notification and yesterday the third big labour organisation did too
but they're willing to negotiate one last time before going on strike
my guess is, they will go on strike starting the 10th of may
Thanks much! This is important news. I had only heard about one labor organziation strike notice. Please keep us updated.
Yes it's becoming a fine line now between disaster and getting to work, although 99% or more of the US would not agree with this comment. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
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