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I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.

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Peakoil.com :: View topic - New here, PO & information society
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New here, PO & information society

 
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Arkwright
Tar Sands
Tar Sands


Joined: Jan 01, 2005
Posts: 89
Location: Finland

PostPosted: Sat Jan 01, 2005 8:59 pm    Post subject: New here, PO & information society Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I'm 25 year old graphics student in Finland, and been worried about PO situation for a while. My personal plan regarding PO is to finish my school asap, get to proper work and gather resources by how situation seems to go. I do see situation of Finland and most of EU relatively positive, worse times and hard measures ahead but I dont believe that civilisation will collapse, huge amounts of people will die or we will fall to anarchy - at least here. It will just be different. There are other big issues about to happen as well, like climate change and mass movement from islamic countries.

I believe EU will stay together, though change to different classes of countries with different rights - specially with Turkey. Finland quite probaply does everything it can to stay with tight core. In Eu and USA you have seen recently changes in laws to better polices information awarness - they do and will look closer what we do and have larger rights. Policestate - maybe, but these measures are quite neccessary to control increasing crime rates. Europe has been trough dark times before and somehow we'll manage trough this one.

Though consume of un-neccessary goods will be much lower, I believe (and personally hope) that the need for entertainment will be here to stay. People will need something to take their thoughts off bad times. It is also viable media for delivering information and propaganda. Techinacally, development of it hardware would stall in mainstream, but wont disappear, durable machines will be upgraded and repair business will flourish. Also Interenet will work in most of EU, at least Finlands network backbone is very secured. Effecient company runningt will be very needed, so databases, communication, develompent and adjusting to new conditions will offer work in IT field. Availability of Open Source programs is good to remember.

So, if Orwellianish "sports and circus" police state will take us trough hard times and games industry will stay alive trough those hard yeas, I plan to get hired to some big corporation, work my way up and doing my best to help my society. If not, I think of something else, survive I will Smile And think of historically, we live trough very intersting times, what a great change to document, do art and help things important to you.

edit: and if consiracy theories point to right direction, global goverment it will be, and that would be beneficial if we meet alien races Wink
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Tyler_JC
Moderator
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Joined: Sep 25, 2004
Posts: 4683
Location: Boston, MA

PostPosted: Sat Jan 01, 2005 10:07 pm    Post subject: Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Hello, welcome to the Peak Oil Cult. We try to be friendly and rational, except for Specop__007 Razz . If you have any questions, we'll be happy to answer them as best we can.

Regarding your situation, I wouldn't be too sure about the internet and computer technology. It takes a lot of energy to maintain all of these little systems. I also don't expect the EU to stay together for any considerable length of time post peak. Keeping an alliance with that many countries with such different interests requires a stable political system and a solid economy. If a depression hits, watch Spain blame Germany, Germany blame France, and so on. I may be wrong, but it is certainly something to watch.
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Arkwright
Tar Sands
Tar Sands


Joined: Jan 01, 2005
Posts: 89
Location: Finland

PostPosted: Sat Jan 01, 2005 10:51 pm    Post subject: Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Thank you Smile

I think they'll priorize it very high to keep basic information structures working, and consumerwise, mobile phones/wireless platforms will be common if current growth continues few more years. I'm certain there will be lots of conflicts among European nations, but at least I see scandinavian countries can work together. Nationalistic ideas will come more popular, in good and bad. If there are inner conflicts with islam, there could be whiteflight towards north. My backup plan is to farm, hunt, fish and grow animals at my familys cottage where my grandparents farmed it 50 years ago, thou I doubt that situatiotn getting so bad during my time. - hoping we avoid ice-age. hmmm, how people at siberia climate survive?

I'm collecting *krhmdownloading* bbc-documentaries and books if teaching is ever needed and organising discussion/planning event about the issue with friends.
Offtopic link but interesting reading Smile
www.newspeakdictionary.com
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Keith_McClary
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude


Joined: Jul 21, 2004
Posts: 1319
Location: Suburban tar sands

PostPosted: Sun Jan 02, 2005 1:33 am    Post subject: Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Tyler_JC wrote:

Keeping an alliance with that many countries with such different interests requires a stable political system and a solid economy. If a depression hits, watch Spain blame Germany, Germany blame France, and so on. I may be wrong, but it is certainly something to watch.

Watch Utah blame Maine, Maine blame California , and so on. Smile
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Brandy
Coal
Coal


Joined: Dec 08, 2004
Posts: 6
Location: Denmark

PostPosted: Sun Jan 02, 2005 3:02 am    Post subject: Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

very good point by Keith. I think the united states have a better chance than EU in maintaining the union in hard times, if we look at the situation now. If we look 20-30 years ahead, the EU will be much closer to the american structure than today, and that might keep the EU together.

As to Turkeys membership I have the following comment. There are a lot of Kurds in Turkey, a people without a state, and they also live in Iraq and Iran. If Turkey becomes a member of the EU it will be through major alertations of its society, and they will have to treat the Kurds much better. This will convince the Kurds in the Northern part of Iraw to bring all the Kurds together in a Turkish Republic, extending that country well into present Iraq. In Northern Iraq there's a lot of oil. This in it self might turn out to be a Welcome mat from the EU.

A bit far-fetched perhaps, but we're all in the foresseing business here, aren't we?
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Tyler_JC
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Joined: Sep 25, 2004
Posts: 4683
Location: Boston, MA

PostPosted: Sun Jan 02, 2005 9:03 am    Post subject: Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Keith_McClary wrote
Quote:
Watch Utah blame Maine, Maine blame California , and so on.


The US has a common leader, a common language, a common identity, and a basic nationalistic feeling among the masses. The European Union lacks all of these things. Further down the production slope, Maine and California may no longer be able to communicate with each other, but that would lead to anger. The US has been together for 140 years without civil war. The EU still has problems with nations "not getting along". If you have to pick the stronger alliance, my money's on the US of A.

France has an increasingly Arab/Muslim population. That may lead to a political revolution based on appeasing that group of people in France. This could cause a whiteflight northward. But remember, the world is heating up, that warm water you get could vanish if Greenland melts...
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