In fact, oil prices might drop back below $20/barrel before 2005 is over - depending on circumstances. Several new large fields should come online this year, adding extra capacity. These are the last of the 500 million barrel mega fields, since none has been discovered in the past few years. Eighteen new mega projects are due to start producing this year, followed by eleven more is 2006. However, 2007 will see the opening of only three new projects, followed by three more in 2008. This will not keep up with declining production in older fields, much less the increase in demand.
ODAC has announced that world production is now seeing a 1 million barrel/day depletion rate. It remains to be seen whether the new production slated to come online this year and next will be sufficient to make up for that depletion rate. And should Ghawar collapse within the next year or two, the loss of production from this one field might cancel out all gains from new fields.
I just hope Ghawar can wait to collapse a year or two !
Quote:
So it appears that we may have reached an energy breather. Soft prices will be welcomed most graciously by those in denial of peak oil. Yet this will also give those of us who are aware a chance to prepare - perhaps our last chance before the roller coaster dives down the declining slope of production, carrying all in it.
Got it people !? LAST CALL !!! 2005 *may* be the last quiet year..We will have time to prepare after 2005,but major moves should be made within this year ..
Joined: Apr 21, 2004 Posts: 508 Location: Republic of Texas
Posted: Thu Dec 30, 2004 4:05 pm Post subject:
If oil gets to $20/bbl next year, I'm puttin the 401K in oil futures. Hello retirement. _________________ The road goes on forever and the party never ends - REK
Joined: Dec 04, 2004 Posts: 2337 Location: perpetual state of exhaustion
Posted: Sun Jan 02, 2005 3:03 pm Post subject:
ditto chicagoan, if ever there was a year to pull out all the stops, this is it. I just hope I'm equal to the task.
good thing our faces don't freeze for ever or I'd always look like this , then even bug eyed animals would make fun of me.
Ever since I found out about peak oil, I've been feeling an urgency to get myself and my family ready - but honestly, the last six months has me really scared. I've watched so many things fall into place - and the urgency has increased. That's a great deal of why I went ahead and quit my job. Although we lost the money, we gained time, so to speak. Now I'm home to be able to build up our homestead and accomplish things one cannot do if they're away 12-14 hours a day (which I was, counting my commute). 2005 is my make or break year - I have it planned out, and a series of goals to accomplish. And I, too, hope I'm equal to the task.
Regarding the face? I've kinda felt like this ever since I found out about Peak Oil It's the deer-in-the-headlights look....
Kathy
Posted: Sun Jan 02, 2005 9:53 pm Post subject: before peak oil
In the meantime, even before peak oil sets in, there is "peak money". Everything points to something major for the U.S. dollar in the next few months. Likely the Russians will begin to sell oil to Germany for Euros, and then a bunch of Mideast countries will follow suit, leading to an absolute collapse in the dollar and massive interest rate hikes in the U.S. to attract capital back. Economic recession followed by depression in the U.S., accompanied by a collapse of the stock market and housing bubble.
This prospect has me much more concerned right now. Not that I don't know that peak oil is a much more serious issue (what an understatement), but massive ugliness is right around the corner regardless of peak oil.
I'm with you, uNknowN ElEmEnt, about the ! Sometimes, the day-to-day world around me is the one that seems more unreal! I find myself looking at everything from a PO point of view! If people like us were all rich enough, massage therapists and psychoanalysts would be making a fortune!
Wednesday's my first knitting/crochet lesson; I'll be aiming for others. I'm resolved to post a notice at our local Senior Center for someone who can help me through my CANNING AND PRESERVING FOR DUMMIES book--the old-fashioned way! Weaving and quilting are still on my "can I find someone to teach me?" list. Like most of you, I see 2005 as IT, the last chance to get some preparing under my belt. I'm just glad I have enough $$ to live on without a job, so I have the time to do so! (KNOCK ON WOOD, KNOCK ON WOOD, KNOCK ON....) And, of course, I hope I'm warned by some of my sources in time to get the money out of the bank when all heck breaks loose! (BTW, pardon the pun, mmm, but you are right on the money in your assessment!)
Joined: Nov 24, 2004 Posts: 75 Location: West Lafayette, IN U.S.A.
Posted: Mon Jan 03, 2005 1:20 pm Post subject:
OOOooh! Be sure to let me know how classes go! I learned to crochet in grade school, and its very simple once you know about 4 basic things.
My biggest question is this though: How *did* people can/jar things before they had pressure canners? I mean, most books and sites I read go on and on about settings on pressure canner, when all I'm currently capable of is canning by heating in a pot over the stove.
Joined: Dec 04, 2004 Posts: 2337 Location: perpetual state of exhaustion
Posted: Mon Jan 03, 2005 1:44 pm Post subject:
If you can get them to teach you the continental method of knitting. its faster (once you get the hang of it of ocurse). You can also google it and there are places that will lead you through it in pictures. don't worry about getting it, the tension takes a while.
hold your left hand out palm up, like you are a "price is right" chick showing a showcase, your hand should be relaxed but the fingers held together. feel the tension in your hand? when you start to knit you will be tempted to squeeze your figners together but they really shouldn't be any tighter than your hand in the showcase pose.
tension is the most frustrating (and important) part of succeeding at knitting. it takes practise and if it doesn't look perfect, don't sweat it. If someone points it out tell them, to shut up until they prove they can do it better . (anyone who can knit well wouldn't harrass you about how you are doing)
Joined: May 15, 2004 Posts: 253 Location: Southeast USA
Posted: Mon Jan 03, 2005 6:57 pm Post subject:
My grandparents can stuff regularly without a canner. I could ask for you and reply back I suppose. _________________ In the long run, men hit only what they aim at. Therefore, though they should fail immediately, they had better aim at something high.-Thoreau
Peak Oil
The canning question brings up another, related, that has often crossed my mind. I do have both a pressure and water bath canner, and a lot of jars, but the lids for these jars must be purchased new for each batch of canning. Rings can be re-used, but not the lids (so they say). So, assuming I stock up on a bunch, how long do they keep before the seals will deteriorate and no longer seal? And what do you do with all those jars when/if the time comes you can't find new lids? I assume the manufacture of those lids will be affected as everything else is. Am I going to only have a couple years to figure out entirely new methods of preserving food once I can no longer find lids? Now that's a worrysome thought...(and a bit off topic. Sorry)
Kathy
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!
!!! 2005 *may* be the last 
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(BTW, pardon the pun, mmm, but you are right on the 
. (anyone who can knit well wouldn't harrass you about how you are doing)
