I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Joined: Jun 18, 2005 Posts: 3970 Location: In a van down by the river
Posted: Mon May 14, 2007 12:50 pm Post subject: Re: Saudis Cut Light Crude Shipments to Asia Further
I do not think that is true Twilight.
The dollar can still buy oil we just have to print more of them.
Here is my on why the US is not filling the SPR even though we have record supplies in private storage.
First off if we turned all that supposed surplus into gas we would not have a surplus at all. Even with the US not able to use all the oil we are not filling the SPR because it would actually take all ready declining oil off the world production. That is if the US filled the SPR it would cause oil supplies to spike around the globe. The current shortage of global oil supply would become self evident.
Cheney and Bush also know what we all know, KSA has peaked. There is not enough energy to go around, so they are trying to manage it. They have asked KSA to slowdown Chinese growth. They have rightly pointed out that the unbound Chinese growth has put the world at financial risk. In a world of shrinking oil reserves the last thing anyone needs is a country adding a million oil users a day.
It all is an effort to keep everything running and try to manage a slowdown.
Posted: Mon May 14, 2007 2:07 pm Post subject: Re: Saudis Cut Light Crude Shipments to Asia Further
tmazanec1 wrote:
If you look at China's stock index, it has just been going berserk in recent months. When it dropped one day in February, DJIA had a near-stroke. Now it is much higher than then. What will this do?
China is investing in energy conservation and alternative energy sources like mad. Granted this won't completely make up the shortfall, and they aren't doing this to be environmentally friendly, but I have more faith in the ability of the Chinese to apply themselves to dig themselves out of a hole.
Posted: Mon May 14, 2007 2:16 pm Post subject: Re: Saudis Cut Light Crude Shipments to Asia Further
birchm wrote:
but I have more faith in the ability of the Chinese to apply themselves to dig themselves out of a hole.
Dig themselves out of a hole?
When you find yourself in a hole, step one is... STOP DIGGING.
-G _________________ I Have and will continue to vote against ANY politician who supports the various bailouts. Curse you for selling out our future for status quo now!
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2007 10:33 am Post subject: Re: Saudis Cut Light Crude Shipments to Asia Further
On June 8, I predicted that OPEC’s June production would be down 100,000 bpd. It looks like I was a tad optimistic.
Quote:
6/28/07 Oster Dow Jones 10:25:48
DJ OPEC June Oil Output Seen -0.2M B/D Vs May - Petrologistics
LONDON, Jun 28, 2007 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) -- The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is expected to pump about 200,000 barrels a day less in June than in May, with much of that decrease coming from disruptions in Iraq, a top tanker tracker said Thursday.
Geneva-based Petrologistics, in preliminary estimates, pegged OPEC production at 30.3 million barrels a day for June from 30.5 million barrels a day in May.
Production in Saudi Arabia, by far OPEC's biggest producer, was seen down 100,000 barrels a day at 8.65 million barrels per day. Petrologistics head Conrad Gerber ascribed the drop more to the fact that the kingdom pulled more oil from storage last month for markets, causing the month-on-month uptick to the May numbers, than to an actual output decline in June.
OPEC has ruled out any formal increase to the group's production although Gerber said he expected OPEC "leakage" to continue and for incremental amounts of oil to make their way into the market because of the attraction of high oil prices for producers. OPEC's next scheduled meeting is for September.
OPEC ministers have been consistent in rejecting recent calls from groups like the International Energy Agency for official increases to production to ease oil prices. Ministers have said crude inventories are healthy and that the rise in oil prices has been mostly a function of tight refining capacity, which has sent gasoline prices higher, and output disruptions in Nigeria and Iraq.
Output was seen steady in Iran, OPEC's No. 2 producer, at around 3.90 million barrels a day for June, Gerber said, while in Nigeria production was seen up by 50,000 barrels a day to 2.02 million barrels per day.
Production in Nigeria, Africa's biggest oil producer and exporter, tumbled last month by 200,000 barrels a day to just under 2 million barrels per day because of militant attacks.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
06-28-07 0625ET
[Sorry no link possible] _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 1648 Location: Springsteen Country (NJ)
Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2007 2:32 pm Post subject: Re: Saudis Cut Light Crude Shipments to Asia Further
Quote:
OPEC has ruled out any formal increase to the group's production although Gerber said he expected OPEC "leakage" to continue and for incremental amounts of oil to make their way into the market because of the attraction of high oil prices for producers. OPEC's next scheduled meeting is for September.
Oil prices are ~$70/bbl and the best they can do is "leakage"?
Looks like OPEC has peaked. At these prices, in the past, they would have been "spewing" more oil onto the market, not "leaking". _________________ Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2007 2:50 pm Post subject: Re: Saudis Cut Light Crude Shipments to Asia Further
joewp wrote:
Quote:
OPEC has ruled out any formal increase to the group's production although Gerber said he expected OPEC "leakage" to continue and for incremental amounts of oil to make their way into the market because of the attraction of high oil prices for producers. OPEC's next scheduled meeting is for September.
Oil prices are ~$70/bbl and the best they can do is "leakage"?
Looks like OPEC has peaked. At these prices, in the past, they would have been "spewing" more oil onto the market, not "leaking".
Previously (in May) Gerber expected OPEC to increase June supplies, which was a typical for the early summer season. Angola, which is not under quotas, has been expanding production. So the oil leakage that comes out of the other 11 OPEC members probably amounts to less than my offspring's older model car in the driveway. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Posted: Tue Jul 03, 2007 5:14 am Post subject: Re: Saudis Cut Light Crude Shipments to Asia Further
Eli wrote:
They are toast Ghawar has peaked.
The call is going to go out again for more oil and KSA is going to say supplies are fine.
Although Ghawar may have peaked (There is not enough evidence to be 100% sure on this), you can't say that KSA is toast as a result. After all, if their exports fell by 50% overnight, they would probably make even more cash than now as the price for what they DID export vanished into the stratosphere.
Not going to be much comfort for people in oil-importing countries, of course.
Saudi Aramco, the world's largest state oil company, will cut crude oil exports to Asian refiners for a tenth month in August, said three refinery officials.
The Dhahran, Saudi Arabia-based oil producer will reduce supplies of its Arab Light and Arab Heavy crude oil to refiners in Japan, China and South Korea by between 9 percent and 10 percent below the volumes set out in annual contracts, said the officials, who received notices from the company and asked not to be identified because of confidentiality agreements.
Saudi Arabia is lowering exports to comply with a 1.7 million barrel-a-day production cut agreed since November last year by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. The nation's state-run company has trimmed shipments below contracted levels since November.
_________________ "Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
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