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Newsseeker
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: May 12, 2005
Posts: 1226
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 Posted: Sat May 19, 2007 7:17 am Post subject: Peak Oil Now? New Data Leads to Speculation |
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| Quote: | New data from the U.S. government shows something disturbing. We may be looking at the peak of oil production, right now.
The data comes from the United States Department of Energy's Energy Information Agency's (EIA) report on Global Oil Production, published earlier this week. The black diamonds show the production data. The error bars show a range of 1% to allow for inaccuracy in measurement. The thick regression curve is a best binomial fit.
It is fairly apparent that oil production has reached a plateau. Growth in the oil supply seems to have stopped.
By extending the best fit curve out two years, we would find that by December of 2008, world oil production would be only 82 million barrels of oil per day (mbpd). This suggests the world may have reached peak oil, the history making all-time maximum of global oil production.
For those looking at similar data two years ago, it would have suggesting an annual supply growth rate of about a 4%. At that rate, global oil production would have reached 93 mpbd by now.
With a two more years of data, even a 2% growth rate projection was optimistic. The world is no where close to 93 mbpd. It looks unlikely that production will reach that level anytime soon. In fact, the trend would have to reverse sharply in order to grow the supply to even 90 mbpd. |
Next stop Olduvai |
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EndOfGrowth
Heavy Crude
Joined: Dec 04, 2006
Posts: 229
Location: End of the plateau
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| Posted: Sat May 19, 2007 7:24 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil Now? New Data Leads to Speculation |
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'What's that coming over the hill, is it a monster, is it a monster'
Last edited by EndOfGrowth on Sat May 19, 2007 7:25 am; edited 1 time in total |
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Twilight
Expert
Joined: Mar 02, 2007
Posts: 2971
Location: UK
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| Posted: Sat May 19, 2007 7:25 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil Now? New Data Leads to Speculation |
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| EndOfGrowth wrote: | | 'What's that coming over the hill, is it a monster, is it a monster' |
That's not fair! I finally had it out of my head! |
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EndOfGrowth
Heavy Crude
Joined: Dec 04, 2006
Posts: 229
Location: End of the plateau
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| Posted: Sat May 19, 2007 7:26 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil Now? New Data Leads to Speculation |
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| Twilight wrote: | | EndOfGrowth wrote: | | 'What's that coming over the hill, is it a monster, is it a monster' |
That's not fair! I finally had it out of my head! |
lol  |
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dissident
Heavy Crude
Joined: Apr 08, 2006
Posts: 419
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| Posted: Sat May 19, 2007 8:26 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil Now? New Data Leads to Speculation |
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I guess that with such a stellar record of forecasting skill, the EIA and IEA for that matter have earned our trust in their current and upcoming forecasts.
Looks like Iraq even if it ever gets to full production will not fill the decline gap. It's time for Cheney and other imperialist slime to wake up and smell the coffee. Everything about the easy motoring lifestyle is negotiable. |
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Novus
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Jun 21, 2005
Posts: 1701
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| Posted: Sat May 19, 2007 11:49 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil Now? New Data Leads to Speculation |
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| If the EIA is admiting that PO is here right now then the world is screwed beyond anything we can imagine. It was the EIA that was leading the world to beleive that was had until 2040 at least before PO hits. If they are admitting this then it is all over. If you have not set your doom-o-meter to 10 then now is the time to do so. |
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Newsseeker
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: May 12, 2005
Posts: 1226
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| Posted: Sat May 19, 2007 11:57 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil Now? New Data Leads to Speculation |
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| Novus wrote: | | If the EIA is admiting that PO is here right now then the world is screwed beyond anything we can imagine. It was the EIA that was leading the world to beleive that was had until 2040 at least before PO hits. If they are admitting this then it is all over. If you have not set your doom-o-meter to 10 then now is the time to do so. |
If they found 10 new Ghawars in upstate New York my doom-o-meter would still be at 10. Don't worry about me, I'm fine!  |
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shortonoil
Fission
Joined: Dec 02, 2004
Posts: 2684
Location: VA USA
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| Posted: Sat May 19, 2007 12:35 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil Now? New Data Leads to Speculation |
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Newsseeker said:
| Quote: | | If they found 10 new Ghawars in upstate New York my doom-o-meter would still be at 10. Don't worry about me, I'm fine! |
There is plenty of oil, 4.5 trillion barrels to be exact; the only problem is that it would take the energy from 5 trillion barrels to get it out of the ground! Why the EIA has not been able to see this very simple relationship, long before this, is a little mind numbing. They, like most of the intelligentsia of the world, have been stuck on interpreting cost in terms of currency; completely ignoring the fact that energy availability gives currency its intrinsic value. Anyone, if they had two functioning eyeballs, studying or observing natural life cycles of any kind of creature, would be aware of this. I guess that is the problem with having our policy being set by someone locked up in a cubicle, on the 10th floor, of an environmentally controlled building. |
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PraiseDoom
Heavy Crude
Joined: Apr 23, 2007
Posts: 297
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| Posted: Sat May 19, 2007 2:05 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil Now? New Data Leads to Speculation |
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| Newsseeker wrote: |
It is fairly apparent that oil production has reached a plateau. Growth in the oil supply seems to have stopped.
Next stop Olduvai |
Peak was so 2006-ish. |
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KevO
Expert
Joined: May 24, 2005
Posts: 2358
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KevO
Expert
Joined: May 24, 2005
Posts: 2358
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emailking
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Mar 11, 2006
Posts: 749
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| Posted: Sun May 20, 2007 1:48 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil Now? New Data Leads to Speculation |
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| KevO wrote: | | Novus wrote: | | If the EIA is admiting that PO is here right now then the world is screwed beyond anything we can imagine. |
oh I don't know. I've just seen '28 weeks later'. |
(spoilers below)
That movie really freaked me out. In 28 days later the whole movie I just assumed the whole world had been taken over by the virus until the very end when we find out it's just Britain and it makes perfect sense. It can't really spread through airports all over the world the way we normally think of doomsday viruses spreading. But now that it's reached mainland europe (via the carrier boy one assumes) it basically screw all of Europe, Asia, and Africa. Save for islands maybe. |
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KevO
Expert
Joined: May 24, 2005
Posts: 2358
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| Posted: Sun May 20, 2007 4:48 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil Now? New Data Leads to Speculation |
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| emailking wrote: | | KevO wrote: | | Novus wrote: | | If the EIA is admiting that PO is here right now then the world is screwed beyond anything we can imagine. |
oh I don't know. I've just seen '28 weeks later'. |
(spoilers below)
That movie really freaked me out. In 28 days later the whole movie I just assumed the whole world had been taken over by the virus until the very end when we find out it's just Britain and it makes perfect sense. It can't really spread through airports all over the world the way we normally think of doomsday viruses spreading. But now that it's reached mainland europe (via the carrier boy one assumes) it basically screw all of Europe, Asia, and Africa. Save for islands maybe. |
scariest film I've ever seen!
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