Posted: Thu May 17, 2007 1:46 pm Post subject: Refinery Outages and Pipeline Problems 2007 -08
Let's start a thread to track refinery outages. We did this last year quite successfully;
Here is a summary:
Plant Plt_Capacity fuel_ affected Comments
Valero Houston 130,000 74,100 Shut whole plant down today
Conoco Borger 146,000 ? one unit down
Frontier Cheyenne 47000 26790 down until 5-24 for maint
BP Whiting 437,000 124545 50% capacity due to fire
BP Texas City 410,000 116850 50% capacity due to fire
I am seeing .4 mbpd total unleaded capacity affected currently.
Here is an interesting item about the scheduled downtime in Asia.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5922 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Thu May 17, 2007 3:06 pm Post subject: Re: Refinery Outages
Quote:
Among the latest glitches to dog U.S. refineries, BP PLC plans to shut a gasoline-producing unit at its giant Texas City, Texas, refinery, while Murphy Oil Corp. said its 125,000-barrel-a-day Meraux, La., refinery has shut down a crude unit for minor repairs and CHS Inc. said a crude processing unit was down at its 55,000 barrel-a-day Laurel, Mont., refinery following a power failure Wednesday.
May 17, 2007 3:56 p.m. Wall Street Journal
Quote:
A key gasoline-production unit at Valero Energy Corp.'s (VLO) refinery in Delaware City, Del., remains at reduced rates due to the shutdown of associated equipment, a state environmental official said.
OsterDowJones 5/17/07 ODJ 17:55:42
Please note that sometimes when refinery operations are restored, there is no mention in the media. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5922 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Thu May 17, 2007 4:35 pm Post subject: Re: Refinery Outages
How about piepline problems?
Buffalo, New York take note:
Quote:
Posted on Thu, May. 17
Homes evacuated after bulldozer breaks gas pipeline
The Associated Press
SHAMOKIN -- A piece of heavy machinery struck an underground gasoline pipeline, causing the evacuation of dozens of homes.
Crews were doing excavation work Wednesday when the bulldozer struck the line, according to Gerald Davis, a spokesman for Sunoco Inc.
When pressure dropped in the 14-inch line carrying gasoline from Reading to Buffalo, N.Y.; the line was promptly shut down, he said. The break occurred at Shamokin, in central Pennsylvania, about 40 miles northeast of Harrisburg.
Davis said he did not know how much gasoline was spilled, and said it was unclear how long it would take to repair the pipeline.
Center Daily - PA _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5922 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Thu May 17, 2007 6:59 pm Post subject: Re: Refinery Outages
More info on the above:
Quote:
May 18, 2007
Gasoline futures jumped 4.3 percent yesterday after Sunoco Inc. shut a 36,000 barrel-a-day gasoline pipeline supplying Buffalo, New York and ConocoPhillips shut a unit at its Borger, Texas, refinery for five weeks of maintenance. BP Plc will shut a 115,000 barrel-a-day gasoline unit at its Texas City plant for 11 days, Reuters reported, citing a trader it didn't name.
ConocoPhillips, the second-largest U.S. refiner, yesterday said it will idle a fluid catalytic cracking unit and a boiler at its Borger plant for scheduled repairs. The refinery is capable of processing 146,000 barrels of oil a day.
Murphy Oil Corp. shut a unit at its 125,000 barrel-a-day Meraux refinery near New Orleans yesterday for ``minor maintenance.''
CHS Inc. said a 48,000 barrel-a-day crude unit at its Laurel, Montana, plant should return to full production by May 25 after a fire.
Last Updated: May 17, 2007 19:02 EDT
Bloomberg _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Posted: Thu May 17, 2007 8:26 pm Post subject: Re: Refinery Outages and Pipeline Problems
Quote:
How about piepline problems
Good idea. I've changed the thread title.
Thus far, making a conservative estimate when the plant says they have shut down "a unit", I have a solid .515 mbpd total down for various reasons, not including the pipelines.
Since 9.6 was considered "full production" post-Katrina, this means that we will be hard pressed to get over 9.1 or 9.2 until at least the end of May.
Quote:
Same deal as the manipulation of the electrical market by Enron
I have heard this theory before. I still find it hard to believe that they are that well organized. On the other hand, it is clear that putting off maintenance has paid some dividends (in a way). On the other other hand, the responsible people who took their downtime earlier and maintained their plants are able to take advantage of the high prices at full production.
edit: to add the shutdown of the rest of the BP Texas City capacity.
Murphy Oil's (MUR.N: Quote, Profile, Research refinery in Meraux, Louisiana had to shut this week for unplanned repairs, while several major plants in Texas have had disruptions.
The United States is competing with west Africa and the Middle East for European gasoline exports and the number of cargoes booked transatlantic has fallen by about a quarter this month, Reuters found. (ID:nL17603414: Quote, Profile, Research.
On top of recent U.S. refinery glitches, BP will shut down a gasoline unit at its vast Texas City plant for an 11-day turnaround, and ConocoPhillips will shut a 67,000-barrel-per-day unit in Texas for a month-long overhaul.
Those outages could deepen the deficit in gasoline stocks, which are now more than seven percent below their five-year average for mid-May, according to U.S. government data. _________________ Got Dharma?
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5922 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Fri May 18, 2007 11:34 am Post subject: Re: Refinery Outages and Pipeline Problems
Pup5 interesting ‘hypothetical’ conversation.
I did some research on the gravity (heaviness or lightness) of oil be used in U S refineries. Heavier grades (30 degrees or less – see EIA figures) have increased by 5% of total imports from 2003 to 2006. Something similar is also occurring with sour crude usage. Due to the increased use of heavy, sour grades of crude, refineries are running refining processes with greater heat and pressure, which wears down units faster. Therefore we should expect refinery down time to become frequent. This problem will only grow worse over time as the quality of crude declines and also becomes more unreliable.
Although the largest Swedish refiner probably doesn’t ship gasoline to the US, it does upset the delicate market balance of oil products.
Quote:
Preem Gothenburg Refinery's Start Postponed Until Early June
By Bill Murray
May 18 (Bloomberg) -- Preem Petroleum AB, a Swedish oil refiner, said its Gothenburg refinery won't resume full production for 10 days, not seven, as workers repair the damage a fire caused at a heating-oil production unit.
``We think the delay will be 10 days instead of seven,'' said Preem spokesman Thomas Oegren. Once it starts up in early June, the plant will run at ``one or a few weeks of reduced capacity.'' The refinery was scheduled to begin full production May 25.
The fire, which broke out May 13, was caused by an oil leak as the refinery was being started up after a five-week shutdown for maintenance.
The plant has an annual capacity of 5 million tons. It produces aviation fuel, diesel, butane and propane.
Last Updated: May 18, 2007 05:37 EDT
Bloomberg _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5922 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Fri May 18, 2007 3:55 pm Post subject: Re: Refinery Outages and Pipeline Problems
It's not clear if this represents a new additional refinery issue or was already considered included in the out of service group:
Quote:
BP Plc will idle the primary fluid catalytic cracking unit at its Texas City, Texas refinery for 10 days of maintenance starting tomorrow, according to a person knowledgeable about the plant. The facility has three crackers, which make gasoline components. It's capable of processing 460,000 barrels of oil per day and is the third-largest U.S. refinery.
Bloomberg May 18, 2007 15:26 EDT _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Posted: Fri May 18, 2007 6:47 pm Post subject: Re: Refinery Outages and Pipeline Problems
Any excuse to shut down oil facilities:
http://www.adn.com/money/story/8827667p-8728464c.html
>
> Heavy equipment accident idles Prudhoe Bay plant
>
> NO INJURIES: North Slope output is down by 90,000 barrels
> a day, or 12 percent.
>
> By WESLEY LOY
> Anchorage Daily News
>
> Published: April 26, 2007
> Last Modified: April 26, 2007 at 04:09 AM
>
> An accident with a piece of heavy equipment in the giant
> Prudhoe Bay oil field has temporarily knocked a sizable
> chunk out of North Slope crude oil production.
>
> On Wednesday, North Slope output was down by about 90,000
> barrels a day, or almost 12 percent of normal production.
>
> Daren Beaudo, spokesman for BP, the company that runs
> Prudhoe, said a side-boom crane used to handle pipe was
> in transit around noon Monday when it hit an electric
> power line, causing a shutdown of a nearby processing
> plant called Gathering Center 2.
>
> No one was injured, Beaudo said.
>
> The plant is a key facility that separates the raw stream
> from wells into oil, water and natural gas.
>
> The plant already had been partially shut down last weekend
> for maintenance work, and the accident with the crane
> brought it to a full stop, Beaudo said.
>
> Rather than restart it partially, BP decided to keep the
> plant idled and take advantage of the chance to perform
> other needed maintenance work, he said.
>
> Most likely, full oil production won't be restored until
> the weekend, he said.
>
> Gathering Center 2 is one of three gathering centers on
> the western side of the vast Prudhoe Bay field.
>
> The plant was in the spotlight in March 2006, when field
> workers discovered a large, snow-covered oil spill along
> the large pipeline leading away from the plant. The
> estimated 201,000-gallon spill, the largest oil spill
> ever on the North Slope tundra, is still under
> investigation by federal authorities.
>
> BP runs Prudhoe Bay on behalf of itself and other owners
> including Exxon Mobil, Conoco Phillips, Chevron and Forest
> Oil.
A key gasoline-producing unit and several others at BP PLC's (BP : bp plc sponsored adr
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BP68.90, +1.23, +1.8%) Toledo, Ohio-area refinery are in restart and seen returning to full operations by Friday after repairs that took a longer-than-expected three weeks, a person familiar with the refinery said Tuesday.
We forgot this one. This brings the total to .55 mbpd
Here is my spreadsheet
The way I figure it, ~17mb/d of refinery capacity is missing 10% or about 1.7mb/d. You accounted for about a third of that. So that means we have about one million barrels of refinery capacity off line for "routine' maintenance. How much of that is really just polishing the knobs and cleaning out the pumps and how much is attempts at quickly re-tooling for heavy, sour crude inputs? Would you put the 550,000 barrels within the normal 5% that's down at this time every year and if so, how do we explain the other 5%+ offline?
Or are there a few refineries sitting idle because there's not enough light sweet for them to process; high (heavy, sour) crude inventories notwithstanding? _________________ Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
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