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Graeme
Fission
Joined: Mar 04, 2005
Posts: 2730
Location: New Zealand
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 Posted: Wed May 16, 2007 5:58 am Post subject: AAPG Oil Reserves Conference, Nov 2006 - How Much Is Left? |
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The AAPG Oil Reserves Conference, Nov 2006 - How Much Is Left?
| Quote: | | 1) World oil production reaches the peak by 2020-40, the rate will be 90-100 million b/d, only 10-20% higher than it was in 2005. Peak is likely to last 20-30 years before production begins its ultimate decline. |
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Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us. |
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Newsseeker
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: May 12, 2005
Posts: 1226
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| Posted: Wed May 16, 2007 6:04 am Post subject: Re: AAPG Oil Reserves Conference, Nov 2006 - How Much Is Lef |
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| Cooooornucopians!!!! |
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benzoil
Heavy Crude
Joined: Aug 26, 2005
Posts: 446
Location: Windy City No Longer
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| Posted: Wed May 16, 2007 6:37 am Post subject: Re: AAPG Oil Reserves Conference, Nov 2006 - How Much Is Lef |
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I wish I could short that position.
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Heineken
Expert
Joined: Sep 14, 2004
Posts: 6536
Location: Rural Virginia
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| Posted: Wed May 16, 2007 6:58 am Post subject: Re: AAPG Oil Reserves Conference, Nov 2006 - How Much Is Lef |
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Just enough oil is left to ensure fatal global warming.
We've stuck the knife in deep, now we start twisting it. |
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Quicksilver
Tar Sands
Joined: Jul 30, 2005
Posts: 81
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| Posted: Wed May 16, 2007 8:02 am Post subject: Re: AAPG Oil Reserves Conference, Nov 2006 - How Much Is Lef |
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A trillion barrel peak 
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He who controls the spice controls the universe. |
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Graeme
Fission
Joined: Mar 04, 2005
Posts: 2730
Location: New Zealand
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| Posted: Sat May 19, 2007 8:35 pm Post subject: Re: AAPG Oil Reserves Conference, Nov 2006 - How Much Is Lef |
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This meeting was also reported by Richard Kerr in the 20 April issue of Science (V316 (5823):351). He says that 75 industry experts from 19 countries concluded that peak oil will occur around 2020 with a 20 year plateau following that before an inevitable decline in world oil production. This was their most likely “low resource” scenario. They had medium and high resource scenarios for peaks at 2030 and 2040 respectively. They considered these to be more difficult to achieve.
This analysis emphasizes the urgency for preparations to get underway for peak oil, but we already know that we have less than 10 years to lessen the effects of climate change.
Does anyone disagree with their analysis or have any comments?
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Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us. |
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Heineken
Expert
Joined: Sep 14, 2004
Posts: 6536
Location: Rural Virginia
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| Posted: Sat May 19, 2007 8:45 pm Post subject: Re: AAPG Oil Reserves Conference, Nov 2006 - How Much Is Lef |
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Yes. Their projections (typical of those of "industry experts") seem far too optimistic, given today's razor-thin margin between production and demand, and the trends clearly in place that threaten to soon do away with any margin at all.
Based on everything I know, delaying "panic time" essentially to 2040---in the least optimistic scenario, no less---seems hugely unrealistic.
No one, especially the petroleum industry, wants to admit that the time to panic is now.
The industry is hopelessly, terminally biased---for sound business reasons. |
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Graeme
Fission
Joined: Mar 04, 2005
Posts: 2730
Location: New Zealand
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| Posted: Sat May 19, 2007 10:17 pm Post subject: Re: AAPG Oil Reserves Conference, Nov 2006 - How Much Is Lef |
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I take you point but they were talking about peak oil (ie mid point in world PRODUCTION). Can you be sure that demand will always exceed supply on a certain date?
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Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us. |
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joewp
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Apr 05, 2005
Posts: 1648
Location: Springsteen Country (NJ)
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| Posted: Sun May 20, 2007 12:04 am Post subject: Re: AAPG Oil Reserves Conference, Nov 2006 - How Much Is Lef |
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| Graeme wrote: | | I take you point but they were talking about peak oil (ie mid point in world PRODUCTION). Can you be sure that demand will always exceed supply on a certain date? |
I don't know what people are thinking, but demand has been exceeding supply for about 5 years or so. That's why prices have tripled. I know people who would gladly drive more, but can't because the price is so high. Supply has come up short for them, that's why they can't afford all the gasoline they want.
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Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb |
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Graeme
Fission
Joined: Mar 04, 2005
Posts: 2730
Location: New Zealand
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| Posted: Sun May 20, 2007 9:03 am Post subject: Re: AAPG Oil Reserves Conference, Nov 2006 - How Much Is Lef |
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Only in 2004 2005, according to the EIA. The market is tight though.
World Balance
Supply(t14)/Demand (t46)
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Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us. |
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