I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
According to the widely accepted view, at current production levels proven coal reserves will last 155 years (this according to the World Coal Institute). The US Department of Energy (USDoE) projects annual global coal consumption to grow 2.5 per cent a year through 2030, by which time world consumption will be nearly double that of today.
However, future scenarios for global coal consumption are cast into doubt by two recent European studies on world coal supplies. The first, Coal: Resources and Future Production (PDF 630KB), published on April 5 by the Energy Watch Group, which reports to the German Parliament, found that global coal production could peak in as few as 15 years. This astonishing conclusion was based on a careful analysis of recent reserves revisions for several nations.
The Mad Max Scenario always seemed unlikely to me because it appeared that we would have sufficient coal to keep a crippled version of modern civilization staggering along in greatly diminished form for a very long time.
However, if the two studies are correct, all bets are off. _________________ "Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
Posted: Tue May 22, 2007 1:58 am Post subject: Re: Peak coal in just fifteen years?
As usual all the easy to reach coal will be mined first so that the stuff left at the end of the day when we need it most will be in the hard to reach places. Metals follow the same pattern. Sometimes I wonder what future generations will be left with - I think they will have to do a whole lot of recycling.
Joined: Jun 02, 2004 Posts: 1078 Location: Bristol, UK
Posted: Tue May 22, 2007 2:06 am Post subject: Re: Peak coal in just fifteen years?
Such an early coal peak has significant implications for climate change. The IPCC models are based on massive fossil fuel reserves. James Hansen has recently shown the limiting impact of oil and gas reserves on CO2, add similarly limited coal production and it's very hard to see where future CO2 emissions will come from:
According to the widely accepted view, at current production levels proven coal reserves will last 155 years (this according to the World Coal Institute). The US Department of Energy (USDoE) projects annual global coal consumption to grow 2.5 per cent a year through 2030, by which time world consumption will be nearly double that of today.
However, future scenarios for global coal consumption are cast into doubt by two recent European studies on world coal supplies. The first, Coal: Resources and Future Production (PDF 630KB), published on April 5 by the Energy Watch Group, which reports to the German Parliament, found that global coal production could peak in as few as 15 years. This astonishing conclusion was based on a careful analysis of recent reserves revisions for several nations.
The Mad Max Scenario always seemed unlikely to me because it appeared that we would have sufficient coal to keep a crippled version of modern civilization staggering along in greatly diminished form for a very long time.
However, if the two studies are correct, all bets are off.
If the energy usage is greatly diminished then the supply with last much longer, on the other hand if current trends continue we will peak coal in 15 years. Do you really beleive current trends will continue another 15 years? _________________ Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to look out for himself honestly, It's when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying attention.
Posted: Tue May 22, 2007 6:15 am Post subject: Re: Peak coal in just fifteen years?
Peak coal to me means that coal gasification is not going to be done as a solution to peak oil. It is probably one of the best solutions available but it ain't gonna happen. So sorry.
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 2578 Location: South of Atlanta
Posted: Tue May 22, 2007 11:33 am Post subject: Re: Peak coal in just fifteen years?
Newsseeker wrote:
Peak coal to me means that coal gasification is not going to be done as a solution to peak oil. It is probably one of the best solutions available but it ain't gonna happen. So sorry.
Coal gasification is what is going to actually drive us to Peak Coal! Once the reality with oil is known STFB and watch what happens with CG.
Posted: Tue May 22, 2007 12:28 pm Post subject: Re: Peak coal in just fifteen years?
Interesting, I had just done up a quick depletion model based on current known US reserves of coal. I had posted it in the Depletion modeling forum, but it seems relevant here as well. I used to to illustrate that the 250 years of coal (at current depletion rates) becomes a myth when you factor in growth. The reality is much more bleak.
Edit: Those % numbers for consumption rates.
So 2% is a 2% growth in consumption per annum.
link to image
Joined: Nov 25, 2005 Posts: 217 Location: Right place, wrong time
Posted: Tue May 22, 2007 12:35 pm Post subject: Re: Peak coal in just fifteen years?
Ayame wrote:
As usual all the easy to reach coal will be mined first so that the stuff left at the end of the day when we need it most will be in the hard to reach places. Metals follow the same pattern. Sometimes I wonder what future generations will be left with - I think they will have to do a whole lot of recycling.
With one caveat. There's no recycling of energy, and recycling of everything else is very energy intensive.
So we're f...d anyway. _________________ "The world is becoming too complex and too fast-paced to manage." - Thomas Homer-Dixon
Posted: Tue May 22, 2007 3:18 pm Post subject: Re: Peak coal in just fifteen years?
Zardoz wrote:
I
Ffuture scenarios for global coal consumption are cast into doubt by two recent European studies on world coal supplies. The first, Coal: Resources and Future Production (PDF 630KB), published on April 5 by the Energy Watch Group, which reports to the German Parliament, found that global coal production could peak in as few as 15 years. This astonishing conclusion was based on a careful analysis of recent reserves revisions for several nations.
Interesting article but I am a bit dubious about some of the logic employed in the article. For example, the plummeting of British coal reserves is in large part due to the decimation of the British coal mining industry during the 1980's and 1990's. This was in large part a political act designed to break the power of the NUM , the country's most powerful union in the 1970s Much of the decline of reserves is due to the fact that mothballed pits have not been maintained and their deposits have been deemed uneconomic to recover. Not a lot of money has been invested in the UK coal industry over the past 25 years so I am not sure who is paying for the 'thorough surveys' that the article mentions.
Joined: Sep 25, 2004 Posts: 4683 Location: Boston, MA
Posted: Tue May 22, 2007 3:49 pm Post subject: Re: Peak coal in just fifteen years?
airstrip1 wrote:
Zardoz wrote:
I
Ffuture scenarios for global coal consumption are cast into doubt by two recent European studies on world coal supplies. The first, Coal: Resources and Future Production (PDF 630KB), published on April 5 by the Energy Watch Group, which reports to the German Parliament, found that global coal production could peak in as few as 15 years. This astonishing conclusion was based on a careful analysis of recent reserves revisions for several nations.
Interesting article but I am a bit dubious about some of the logic employed in the article. For example, the plummeting of British coal reserves is in large part due to the decimation of the British coal mining industry during the 1980's and 1990's. This was in large part a political act designed to break the power of the NUM , the country's most powerful union in the 1970s Much of the decline of reserves is due to the fact that mothballed pits have not been maintained and their deposits have been deemed uneconomic to recover. Not a lot of money has been invested in the UK coal industry over the past 25 years so I am not sure who is paying for the 'thorough surveys' that the article mentions.
I was thinking about that too.
Have these reserve estimates been revised to reflect the current run up in price?
Extracting coal at a particular mine might only be profitable above a certain X price.
And don't tell me a story about how higher energy prices will always make those sites unprofitable. If that was the case, the Canadian oil sands would be worthless.
Energy cost is not the sole factor in determining whether or not a particular coal mine is viable. Coal prices, however, can have a big impact on viability. _________________ "www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse."
Joined: Feb 20, 2005 Posts: 2880 Location: Uppsala, Sweden
Posted: Tue May 22, 2007 5:36 pm Post subject: Re: Peak coal in just fifteen years?
clv101 wrote:
Such an early coal peak has significant implications for climate change. The IPCC models are based on massive fossil fuel reserves. James Hansen has recently shown the limiting impact of oil and gas reserves on CO2, add similarly limited coal production and it's very hard to see where future CO2 emissions will come from:
Climate threat overestimated since there isn't enough oil
Leading fossil fuel researcher: Dwindling supplies of oil gas and coal globaly makes the environment the big winner. We must question the global temperature increase which the UN panel IPCC predicts. It is based on the assumption that the population of the world will consume ever more fossil fuels. But the truth is the opposite. The world production of oil will within at most a decade reach its absolute peak - "Peak Oil" - and the same is true for gas and coal. The fossil energy will simply not last. The worlds major future problem is that too many will have to share too little energy. But the winner is the global environment, writes the professor of Physics at Uppsala university, Kjell Aleklett.
[...]
A general opninion is that there are almost unlimited amounts of coal, but when we do detail studies of production profiles in the six countries that posses 85 % of the world's coal reserves, we discover clear signs that coal production in certain regions has reached maximum capacity. Furthermore we see a production decline for the best coal, that is the coal which has the highest energy content per unit of volume. In the USA, the worlds second biggest coal user, the volume of mined coal is increasing, but the energy content declines. The USA has reached a coal maximum, "Peak Coal", when it comes to energy content.
China will soon reach maximum production capacity and we will end up in a situation where Russia alone sits on the last major coal reserves. The future production in Russia will define the moment when we reach "Peak Coal". Compared to what has earlier been said, we are large carbon dioxide winners.
_________________ Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
Joined: Oct 14, 2004 Posts: 1203 Location: Left the cult
Posted: Sat May 26, 2007 12:30 pm Post subject: Re: Peak coal in just fifteen years?
airstrip1 wrote:
Interesting article but I am a bit dubious about some of the logic employed in the article. For example, the plummeting of British coal reserves is in large part due to the decimation of the British coal mining industry during the 1980's and 1990's.
I have seen this statement made before, but it is not true. British coal was in decline well before the 1980's, we peaked 80 years ago!. Deep mined coal is expensive to produce; imported coal is cheaper. Thatcher may have hastening it's demise, but the industry was already in a terminal condition. The arrival of cheap North Sea gas helped the decline of coal as well.
You can see the dip in 1984 due to the miner's strike, but the trend was always down.
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3875 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Sat May 26, 2007 2:02 pm Post subject: Re: Peak coal in just fifteen years?
bobcousins wrote:
airstrip1 wrote:
Interesting article but I am a bit dubious about some of the logic employed in the article. For example, the plummeting of British coal reserves is in large part due to the decimation of the British coal mining industry during the 1980's and 1990's.
I have seen this statement made before, but it is not true. British coal was in decline well before the 1980's, we peaked 80 years ago!. Deep mined coal is expensive to produce; imported coal is cheaper. Thatcher may have hastening it's demise, but the industry was already in a terminal condition. The arrival of cheap North Sea gas helped the decline of coal as well.
You can see the dip in 1984 due to the miner's strike, but the trend was always down.
But the zillion dollar queston is, when imported coal becomes expensive how much does the UK actually have left to access?
Yes the trend was clearly down for a long time, and yes coal is a nasty dirty fossil fuel, but I beleive that unfortunately we will still dig up and burn all of it we can find until the price gets too high. _________________ Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to look out for himself honestly, It's when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying attention.
Joined: Mar 28, 2007 Posts: 358 Location: Cambs., UK
Posted: Sat May 26, 2007 2:14 pm Post subject: Re: Peak coal in just fifteen years?
Tanada wrote:
But the zillion dollar queston is, when imported coal becomes expensive how much does the UK actually have left to access?
Yes the trend was clearly down for a long time, and yes coal is a nasty dirty fossil fuel, but I beleive that unfortunately we will still dig up and burn all of it we can find until the price gets too high.
Undoubtedly, as will everyone else I should expect. Though given Labour is consistent in their missing of CO2 and other limits imposed on industry to curb climate change, I doubt it'll be much different to what we have now. _________________ "Nothing survives. Not your parents. Not your children. Not even stars."
-Pinbacker, Sunshine
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum
News
Discussions
Resources
Members
Forum FAQ
Search
Usergroups
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
