Posted: Mon May 21, 2007 4:28 am Post subject: Re: Refinery Outages and Pipeline Problems 2007
Quote:
other 5%+ offline?
I was not thinking about it in that way, but thanks for reminding me.
The actual utilization practically never gets all the way to 100%. The last time it did was 1998. The system produced over 98% for one week in June of 2005. Last year, the maximum utilization was 93%, which it was able to sustain for only 3 weeks.
So despite 17,469 of nameplate capacity, the actual, true operating capacity is probably not more than 16770 mbpd, and if the normal running rate of that is 57% gasoline, that means the system will max out at 9.559 mbpd, and that level of production is not sustainable for more than a couple of weeks.
So if you subtract from that the .5 mbpd that we know is offline unexpextedly, it means we will not be over 9.0 or 9.1 this week, which is just about right. In fact, I would say the system is unlikely to get over 9.1 this week.
The big question is, of course, can it get over 9.2 or 9.3 for any length of time at all? Last year, as tight as supplies were, 9.3 mbpd gasoline was only sustained for two weeks. In 2005, as tight as supplies were then, 9.2 was only sustained for one week.
That .1 mbpd does not sound like much, but it might be the difference between driving, and riding your bike.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5882 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Mon May 21, 2007 5:46 am Post subject: Re: Refinery Outages and Pipeline Problems 2007
Thanks much for your analysis pup55.
A few more problems over the weekend:
Quote:
More Problems
Valero Energy Corp., the largest U.S. refiner, said a wet gas compressor failure caused flaring at its 295,000-barrel-a-day refinery in Port Arthur, Texas, on May 19.
ConocoPhillips plans to restart a 24,000-barrel-a-day fluid catalytic cracking unit at its Ponca City, Oklahoma, refinery early this week after unplanned repairs, the company said yesterday.
``Over the weekend, the U.S. refining industry experienced a series of further glitches which further threaten the supply,'' James Neale, a London-based analyst at Citigroup Global Markets Ltd., wrote today in an e-mailed report. ``The industry seems to continue to be struggling to find a supply response to the price signal.''
Last Updated: May 21, 2007 07:11 EDT
Bloomberg _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Gasoline supplies in Memphis are tight, but there is no shortage, the president of Delta Refining Co. said last night. His statement came amid reports from industry trade publications that gasoline lines may soon form in some cities, with pump prices rising as much as 10 cents a gallon. The Delta president, Robert G. Alexander, said there isn't "a great abundance" of gasoline here, but there is no shortage. No shortage is expected, he said, because "we intend to do everything we can to supply it (gasoline)." Alexander said the 50,000-barrel-a-day refinery has been operating at 90 per cent of capacity because of a "logistics problem of getting the proper kind of crude oil here at the proper time."
Joined: Mar 04, 2007 Posts: 504 Location: Hong Kong
Posted: Mon May 21, 2007 10:22 pm Post subject: Re: Refinery Outages and Pipeline Problems 2007
Quote:
Or are there a few refineries sitting idle because there's not enough light sweet for them to process; high (heavy, sour) crude inventories notwithstanding?
I thought this was an interesting question, and I would like some more input from the pros regarding the issue of heavy and sour crude making up a greater portion of imports. Here are my questions, if I may be so bold:
1) Are the number of refinery outages - whether planned or unplanned - increasing in year-on-year terms? If so, is this because the crude is more heavy and/or sour?
2) In general, are refineries retooling for more heavy and/or sour crude in the future? If not, should they be?
3) Does maintenance or retooling of refineries to handle more heavy and/or sour crude take longer than regular planned maintenance or retooling? How much more capital intensive is it?
I think this is a very cogent issue because one of the key tenets of Peak Oil is that the light, sweet crude gets extracted first, meaning that sour, heavy crude makes up a greater portion of the total amount extracted, thus lower EROEI and ... you've heard it before.
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 1627 Location: Springsteen Country (NJ)
Posted: Tue May 22, 2007 2:37 pm Post subject: Re: Refinery Outages and Pipeline Problems 2007
Hmm, since nobody's replying, I went to EIA web site to make a graph, but unfortunately they only have data through February.
It does seem the oil has gotten slightly sweeter the last two years or so, and I think this might be the Nigerian oil coming in, which would explain why Nigeria news seems to influence the market so much. But since we don't have data for the last 10 weeks, it's anybody's guess about what's going into the refineries at this point. _________________ Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
Posted: Tue May 22, 2007 3:06 pm Post subject: Re: Refinery Outages and Pipeline Problems 2007
Another aspect of the heavier crude question is price and margins. When you invest in the equipment to handle heavy crude you'll want to recoup your investment as quickly as possible. Add to that the price spread between light and heavy and you can make more money running heavy than light. It may not be the shortage of light crude but a greedy preference for the heavy stuff that's driving the refiners. _________________ Civilization is a personal choice.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5882 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Tue May 22, 2007 3:40 pm Post subject: Re: Refinery Outages and Pipeline Problems 2007
While that is a good graph of operating refineries, the picture of imports into the US is a little more negative (sorry I don’t have time to find a graph) – and does not show improvement Two things are possible. 1) refiners are using the good stuff first and 2) the quality to refiners improved because those using heavier, lower quality oil are the ones experiencing the most down time this year.
In general, I think the refining industry underestimated the cost, and the resulting down time, of refining heavier crude with more complex, hotter process. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5882 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Wed May 23, 2007 3:38 pm Post subject: Re: Refinery Outages and Pipeline Problems 2007
Quote:
Boiler Problems Completely Shut Valero’s 245,000 b/d Texas City, Texas Refinery May 23
Shutdown Expected to Last 24 Hours - Traders
According to traders Valero completely shut its Texas City refinery due to steam boiler problems. Some traders said they expected the shutdown to last 24 hours.
Reuters, 12:37 May 23, 2007 _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5882 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Thu May 24, 2007 11:37 am Post subject: Re: Refinery Outages and Pipeline Problems 2007
Quote:
Refinery Closure
A ConocoPhillips refinery in Belle Chasse, Louisiana, is down after a power failure yesterday, a company spokeswoman said. The refinery can process 247,000 barrels of oil a day, according to the Energy Department.
Valero said it shut a fluid catalytic cracking unit at its McKee refinery near Sunray, Texas. A company spokesman said it will process 80,000 barrels of crude oil a day. The refinery, which can normally process 170,000 barrel of oil a day, was running at 100,000 barrels a day before the cracking unit was shut. Gasoline output will be cut by 30,000 barrels a day.
The entire plant was closed in February because of damaged sustained during a fire. The closure of McKee helped push supplies at Cushing to 27 million barrels in the week ended April 6, the highest since at least April 2004, when the Energy Department began reporting on supplies there.
``The McKee closure is especially important because it is so close to Cushing,'' Samples said.
A crude unit at ConocoPhillips's 27,000 barrel-a-day refinery in Belle Chasse, Louisiana, may be shut for a week after a fire, Tiffany Dickerson, a spokeswoman for the Louisiana Department of Environmental Quality, said yesterday.
Bloomberg Last Updated: May 24, 2007 20:35 EDT
I estimate that total losses from the last three refinery problems will cause a cumulative total loss of 800,000 barrels of gasoline over the next 2 weeks or so. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Last edited by DantesPeak on Thu May 24, 2007 7:42 pm; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 2464 Location: South of Atlanta
Posted: Thu May 24, 2007 1:01 pm Post subject: Re: Refinery Outages and Pipeline Problems 2007
Ahh, the news just keeps getting better and better doesnt it. Do I note that somehow things are getting worse with regards to the refinery issues? Is it even possible to keep up with daily supply losses? I think it might be prudent to start keeping some sort of running tally on the daily deficit caused by each one of these outages. Seems we are consistently at several hundred thousand barrels a day loss for the last few weeks/months, or is that just my doomer side taking over?
If we truly are past peak light sweet, then this situation wont get better over time, it most likley will get worse, or am I just projecting my doomer attitude?
Posted: Thu May 24, 2007 1:09 pm Post subject: Re: Refinery Outages and Pipeline Problems 2007
AirlinePilot wrote:
Ahh, the news just keeps getting better and better doesnt it. Do I note that somehow things are getting worse with regards to the refinery issues? Is it even possible to keep up with daily supply losses? I think it might be prudent to start keeping some sort of running tally on the daily deficit caused by each one of these outages. Seems we are consistently at several hundred thousand barrels a day loss for the last few weeks/months, or is that just my doomer side taking over?
If we truly are past peak light sweet, then this situation wont get better over time, it most likley will get worse, or am I just projecting my doomer attitude?
You are using the dark heavy side of the force Peak Oil Jedi. BOHICA! _________________ It's a cold cold world when a man has to pawn his shoes.
Posted: Thu May 24, 2007 1:22 pm Post subject: Re: Refinery Outages and Pipeline Problems 2007
AirlinePilot wrote:
Ahh, the news just keeps getting better and better doesnt it. Do I note that somehow things are getting worse with regards to the refinery issues? Is it even possible to keep up with daily supply losses? I think it might be prudent to start keeping some sort of running tally on the daily deficit caused by each one of these outages. Seems we are consistently at several hundred thousand barrels a day loss for the last few weeks/months, or is that just my doomer side taking over?
If we truly are past peak light sweet, then this situation wont get better over time, it most likley will get worse, or am I just projecting my doomer attitude?
If we start with the consideration that we are infact post peak already, then what direction is there for things to go other than worse?
For the most part the worsening of things will be subtle and gradual - no hollywood epic doom scenarios, atleast for the most of it...
Posted: Thu May 24, 2007 1:41 pm Post subject: Re: Refinery Outages and Pipeline Problems 2007
phaeryen wrote:
For the most part the worsening of things will be subtle and gradual - no hollywood epic doom scenarios, atleast for the most of it...
I disagree, I think it will be subtle and gradual for a while (I think this is the period we are going though right now) Then we will witness something far worse then any hollywood doom scenario without the happy ending.
When the US stock market crashes (and It will, it has to) The lights will go out for good for the masses, and doom will be the order of the day. Time to see how the rest of the world has lived because of the western worlds greed, only difference being they are used to hardships and survival, we will be totally unprepared for the physical and philological challenges.
Posted: Thu May 24, 2007 2:53 pm Post subject: Re: Refinery Outages and Pipeline Problems 2007
I wonder...have these refinery outages been happening all the time and were just noticing them now because of the price of gas and tight supply...or are they a new problem. Clearly in the past this would not have been even mentioned if we had a high supply of gas and refiner X is out 50 000 barrels a day. Its like not realizing that there is microscopic life in a drop of water till you put it under a microscope. Are we "microscoping" the refinery business here? Just something to consider.
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