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3rensho
Tar Sands
Joined: Apr 04, 2005
Posts: 85
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 Posted: Tue May 22, 2007 12:03 pm Post subject: Rudimentary depletion graphs |
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Based on numbers I could find via google I ran some relatively rudimentary depletion scenarios on World Oil and US Coal.
Below are the graphs I managed to spit out. Forgive the poor color choices, I'm using a new program I am still acquiring familiarity with.
World Oil
US Coal
Enjoy. |
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steam_cannon
Expert
Joined: Dec 28, 2006
Posts: 2456
Location: MA
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| Posted: Tue May 22, 2007 10:22 pm Post subject: Re: Rudimentary depletion graphs |
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| 3rensho wrote: | | Based on numbers I could find via google I ran some relatively rudimentary depletion scenarios on World Oil and US Coal. |
Cool, keep plugging away. People are reading them  By the way, what are some of your thoughts on those charts and where did you get the statistics backing them? |
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3rensho
Tar Sands
Joined: Apr 04, 2005
Posts: 85
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| Posted: Thu May 24, 2007 4:38 am Post subject: Re: Rudimentary depletion graphs |
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| steam_cannon wrote: | | Cool, keep plugging away. People are reading them By the way, what are some of your thoughts on those charts and where did you get the statistics backing them? |
Thanks. I got my estimated reserves and consumption stats from various US Government websites under the Dept. of Energy.
My thoughts on charts (in general) are that they really help illustrate points if done up properly.
Part of the learning experience is seeing just how hard it is to get numbers at all let alone accurate and reliable statistics to try and model a depletion of a reserve. I do enjoy the math, since it is fun for me to look at the recurrence relations and derive the equations to plot such graphs. Not everyone likes math though, so being able to draw more accurate pictures of different scenarios for folks who are interested in the topic is nice as well. |
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Blacksmith
Intermediate Crude
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Joined: May 13, 2007
Posts: 610
Location: Athabasca, Alberta
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| Posted: Thu May 24, 2007 6:23 pm Post subject: Re: Rudimentary depletion graphs |
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Nice work.
I really would be interested to see your coal graph include North American lignite and subbituminous reserves. |
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Fredrik
Heavy Crude
Joined: Nov 05, 2006
Posts: 393
Location: Finland
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| Posted: Fri May 25, 2007 1:16 am Post subject: Re: Rudimentary depletion graphs |
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Here's a graph of global coal estimate, via The Oil Drum:
Of course, if CtL is widely used post-peak (and it probably will), coal depletion will be greatly accelerated.
_________________
"A devastating error is to set up a political system based on [individual] desire... the best dictatorship would be one where the government prevents any economical growth."
"Only scarcity and effort make life worth living."
-Pentti Linkola |
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Mircea
Heavy Crude
Joined: May 04, 2007
Posts: 171
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| Posted: Sat May 26, 2007 1:46 am Post subject: Re: Rudimentary depletion graphs |
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| 3rensho wrote: | | My thoughts on charts (in general) are that they really help illustrate points if done up properly. |
It's a nice graph and very readable, but not done properly.
| 3rensho wrote: | | Part of the learning experience is seeing just how hard it is to get numbers at all let alone accurate and reliable statistics to try and model a depletion of a reserve. I do enjoy the math |
It's more than math, it's economics, which you completely ignored, resulting in an grossly inaccurate graph.
Y never equals 0, although it does approach zero.
If your graph was accurate, then you have just won the Nobel Prize in both Mathematics and Economics for proving the following:
2,500 - 3,000 is greater than or equal to 0. |
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