Hoarding is exactly what the government is doing right now by filling the SPR, and frankly it's the best thing that could happen. It drives prices up. High prices encourage demand destruction. They also finance new well development. The hoarded oil gives us a buffer to fall back on once shortages become more prevalent. High prices are what we need in order to adapt to what's coming, and the sooner they happen, the better.
Posted: Wed May 23, 2007 4:52 am Post subject: Re: Europe Fuel Shortage Reports
Twilight wrote:
How this would affect the US, I don't know, but importing their supply crisis by selling our stocks would be madness for a new prime minister to allow to happen. Especially as the DTI monthly statistics would tell the whole sordid story three months later.
This would be correct, apart from the fact that the Labour government seems keener on serving the interests of the US government than its own people.. at the rate they are going, they'll be sending people out to siphon people's tanks to send to the US..
There is also the faith in markets (And the consequent belief that governments are incapable of doing anything at all) that actually seems more developed in the UK than the US in areas such as this.
Currently at 97.9p/litre here in Bath.. do I take the plunge and fill up the Pug now..? Given the size of the tank, that usually provokes a local supply crisis on it's own..
As you can see, the difference is down to 0.5p. However, prices are not unbearably high by a long way, inflation-adjusted the average would have to exceed 100p and approach 106p to repeat the pain of September 2000, and that's not taking into account the willingness to rack up credit card debt that has become widespread in the meantime.
I still think we will see Whack A Mole being played globally with physical shortages long before price alone stops people from buying, and one of these summers it will be the UK's turn.
But as I have said before, if we are indeed drawing down our inventories to bail out the US, I would expect it to ease off in July once Brown steps in, as he would be really dumb to risk shortages in his first months in office.
Joined: Nov 07, 2005 Posts: 551 Location: London, UK
Posted: Sun Jun 03, 2007 5:54 pm Post subject: Re: Europe Fuel Shortage Reports
Twilight wrote:
But as I have said before, if we are indeed drawing down our inventories to bail out the US, I would expect it to ease off in July once Brown steps in, as he would be really dumb to risk shortages in his first months in office.
One would think so, but then again, will the thinking be. "we survived that minefield once, we can do it again".
The danger is that the Government thinks with that kind of mindset. The problem with that mindset is that 10 years ago there was oil. Now it's a completely different ball game, unfortunatley one the Governement doesn't seem to understand the rules of. _________________ THE FUTURE IS HISTORY!
Posted: Sun Jun 03, 2007 7:04 pm Post subject: Re: Europe Fuel Shortage Reports
Gazzatrone said:
Quote:
One would think so, but then again, will the thinking be. "we survived that minefield once, we can do it again".
Working, from the EIA data, indicates that the US could well be in extreme trouble by the end of the summer. Since the Commonwealth, that is Britain, is the US’s only real ally, and probably the only one we have ever had, I think that it is likely that you will try.
Joined: Oct 27, 2004 Posts: 220 Location: Queensland, Australia
Posted: Sun Jun 24, 2007 6:17 am Post subject: Re: Europe Fuel Shortage Reports
So lets call that 97p per liter of unleaded which translates to 97 x 3.8 (litres in gallon) x 1.98 ( current 50 dma exchange rate) ~= 729.8 or $7.298 dollars per gallon.
Joined: Nov 07, 2005 Posts: 551 Location: London, UK
Posted: Sun Jun 24, 2007 7:20 pm Post subject: Re: Europe Fuel Shortage Reports
ozkrenske wrote:
So lets call that 97p per liter of unleaded which translates to 97 x 3.8 (litres in gallon) x 1.98 ( current 50 dma exchange rate) ~= 729.8 or $7.298 dollars per gallon.
So a bit over double the at pump price in the US.
And those on the other side of The Pond think they have it rough now? _________________ THE FUTURE IS HISTORY!
Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2007 7:01 pm Post subject: Re: Europe Fuel Shortage Reports
Quote:
At Comiston Road and Montrose Terrace, Abbeyhill, the Shell petrol stations had no unleaded or diesel this morning.
At Craigleith Road, a Shell forecourt attendant said supplies were low, adding: "I would think we won't get more until tomorrow."
The Lothianburn Service Station on Biggar Road ran out of both diesel and unleaded yesterday at 4pm. The attendant there described the situation as a "nightmare" with the forecourt sitting empty as anxious drivers search for supplies.
Thimblehall service station on Lanark Road ran out of unleaded last night although diesel was on sale this morning
Joined: Nov 07, 2005 Posts: 551 Location: London, UK
Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2007 7:07 pm Post subject: Re: Europe Fuel Shortage Reports
pup55 wrote:
Quote:
At Comiston Road and Montrose Terrace, Abbeyhill, the Shell petrol stations had no unleaded or diesel this morning.
At Craigleith Road, a Shell forecourt attendant said supplies were low, adding: "I would think we won't get more until tomorrow."
The Lothianburn Service Station on Biggar Road ran out of both diesel and unleaded yesterday at 4pm. The attendant there described the situation as a "nightmare" with the forecourt sitting empty as anxious drivers search for supplies.
Thimblehall service station on Lanark Road ran out of unleaded last night although diesel was on sale this morning
Ths doesn't surprise me. Last Friday in London UK, I tried 3 BP petrol stations, not out of brand loyalty, but they were the only stations on my route. They were all sold out of both diesel and unleaded, and even their super unleaded.
Hard times are coming and it will only take one decent hurricane to really screw it all up. _________________ THE FUTURE IS HISTORY!
Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2007 7:25 pm Post subject: Re: Europe Fuel Shortage Reports
Is resistance (political/psychological) to break £1/litre preventing the market from balancing supply/demand?? I've have been surprised to see so little upward movement in prices while Brent is setting new records.
Joined: Nov 07, 2005 Posts: 551 Location: London, UK
Posted: Fri Jul 13, 2007 4:21 am Post subject: Re: Europe Fuel Shortage Reports
sjn wrote:
Is resistance (political/psychological) to break £1/litre preventing the market from balancing supply/demand?? I've have been surprised to see so little upward movement in prices while Brent is setting new records.
Partly, but I think there are two considerations.
1: Is holding it until october (I think it is) when the 2p increase in tax comes into effect.
2: To stop it from becoming a runaway train.
But I agree. Prices have remained just under the £1 pl ceiling for months now even though the price on the market has increased. Those are my thoughts. But I think its a case of Big Oil not wanting to be perceived as the Bad Guy. _________________ THE FUTURE IS HISTORY!
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