Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2007 9:51 am Post subject: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?
Hi all,
I'm new to the site and as I was reading I was surprised by the extremely negative views many posters have reading the situation post-peak. It seems like a lot of people are gearing up for Mad-Max style anarchy.
I know there are huge challenges to maintain and increasing our current energy supply and in the long-term (unless we master Nuclear Fusion and develop exceptional renewable sources) we will have to moderate demand irrespective of the third world.
However, it seems, despite the long-term challenges, the short-medium term outlook don’t appear to be bad.
Here is how I see it; we can meet out short-term demand with a mix of the following sources:
1) Nuclear - Currently supplying 20% in the UK (80% in France). A provision of 20% would be realistic in many countries.
2) Gas - Europe has enough direct supply to last for 50-150 years. The US has a significant problem regarding supply, as it has no gas so it would need to build a LNG infrastructure. However, this could be accomplished in 5 years or so with government funding.
3) Wind/PV - A national government lead drive to put a wind turbine and PV unit of each house where appropriate. Both technologies are almost commercially viable. Some industry experts claim the next generation of PV units (circa 2010 onwards) will be able to compete with fossil fuel generation from a commercial point of view.
4) Coal - Coal/gas hybrid plants could play a significant role in a bridge energy economy.
Many of these sources currently provide a significant portion of our energy needs and could be extended rather quickly with a government lead initiative. The problem will be transport. The solution will be simple. Walk to work. Petrol supplies will priories the government will first take what it needs to implement its energy strategy, then major transport requirements will be met and finally what ever is left will go to consumers.
Over the first decade post peak there will be contant transport cost inflation that will lead to shift to hybrid and electric cars for those who still use them. Mass transit will be massively increased and will utilise hydrogen cells like the bus fleet in London. Most people will simply have to bike or work to in the morning.
Then there is conservation, by increasing fuel and energy efficiency many experts claim we could reduce our energy demand by as much as 30% without significantly changing our activities.
Is this scenario completly implausible, if so why?
Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2007 10:09 am Post subject: Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?
mkwin wrote:
Hi all,
I'm new to the site and as I was reading I was surprised by the extremely negative views
However, it seems, despite the long-term challenges, the short-medium term outlook don’t appear to be bad.
Is this scenario completly implausible, if so why?
Hello new kid,
All the responses to your questions are already posted in the forum by people more knowledgeable than me, so I won't rehash it all. Just keep your brain open to the information, and your perspective will go steadily downhill regarding the viability of all the energy sources you mentioned.
The main thing that you are not taking into consideration, however, is food. Our food supply depends on both oil and natural gas--oil to run the machinery and natural gas to make the fertilizer.
As light sweet crude oil gets harder and harder to get, we will switch to all sorts of other things, including sour crude, synthetics, tar sands, etc ad infinitum. All of these things need a lot of energy to pull out of the ground, and will never be produced at the speed that we produce light sweet crude.
Regarding natural gas, your statement that there is 100 years of NG supply in Europe is suspect to me, but it falls apart completely if the USA starts importing LNG to make fertilizer.
Therefore, the idea that we will all get along by carpooling and bike riding will last only about 10 years at the outside. It will be a very nice ten years. I look forward to it. After that is when food production will begin to collapse due to fuel shortages and fertilizer shortages. This will happen in the Third World first. All of us here in the Industrialized World will read about it in the paper and tsk about how bad things have gotten over there. Eventually, the shortages will hit all of us.
There is a thread on this forum that looks at what the death rate will have to be to get us back to a population that can be fed with pre-industrial farming methods. It's hell on earth--literally unimaginable and unprecedented, and it will take 50 years of that death rate. Most of us can be glad that we won't see much of it. And if you care about your children, don't have any. _________________ Just another tofu-munching bike-riding Rambo(/Rambette)
Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2007 10:28 am Post subject: Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?
Quote:
Is this scenario completly implausible
Welcome, mkwin....
I have an opinion on this, not necessarily shared by the doomers....
From a technical standpoint, all of what you say is within the realm of possibility except for transportation, which is an ongoing problem. Others may argue the fine points....
But even if some combination of technical solutions can be found, you still have the problem of implementation, which is getting us obese suburbanites to accept a big change in lifestyle. How are you going to do it? At gunpoint? How are you going to manage it? By the same government that gave us Katrina and Iraq?
This is the hard part. 99% of the public has no idea about the ramifications of the change that awaits us at some point. The ramifications of the problem on the food supply is already being felt.
But there's no one driving the ship as we head toward the iceberg.
Joined: Jan 04, 2005 Posts: 61 Location: Rome, Italy
Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2007 10:45 am Post subject: Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?
mkwin wrote:
Is this scenario completly implausible, if so why?
Very simple answer: your solutions would be great, 30 years ago.
Today they are a bit late... nowadays, we are lacking in time and in cheap resources...
Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2007 11:19 am Post subject: Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?
mkwin wrote:
1) Nuclear - Currently supplying 20% in the UK (80% in France). A provision of 20% would be realistic in many countries.
Within 15 years, nuclear will be supplying less than 5% in the UK, unless we build replacement capacity. Resources and finances aside, our skillbase is unlikely to be sufficient. The same applies elsewhere. No-one has given much thought to making the intellectual investment, and that must come well in advance of construction.
mkwin wrote:
2) Gas - Europe has enough direct supply to last for 50-150 years. The US has a significant problem regarding supply, as it has no gas so it would need to build a LNG infrastructure. However, this could be accomplished in 5 years or so with government funding.
I doubt anyone could move that fast, firstly as a result of planning constraints and public sentiment, secondly because an import terminal is useless without an export terminal and a long-term contract. According to some reports even Russia is going to be hard-pressed to meet future European demand, and it is #1 in the gas business. No amount of state subsidy is going to address the willingness (and ability) of producers to invest in their infrastructure. If Russia and the ME Gulf are not up to the task, what then? I wouldn't be too quick to stake the future on a third party's herculean efforts.
mkwin wrote:
3) Wind/PV - A national government lead drive to put a wind turbine and PV unit of each house where appropriate. Both technologies are almost commercially viable. Some industry experts claim the next generation of PV units (circa 2010 onwards) will be able to compete with fossil fuel generation from a commercial point of view.
Mass production of cheap PV would require whole new factories. Someone would have to make the investment, and a clear enough signal is not so far being offered. It may not come in time, if at all.
mkwin wrote:
4) Coal - Coal/gas hybrid plants could play a significant role in a bridge energy economy.
On this I would agree, although environmentally it would be a disaster. Not necessarily on the climate change side of things, but acid rain and pollution of the water table are other potential issues. We can see in China what happens when this is desperately pursued.
mkwin wrote:
Many of these sources currently provide a significant portion of our energy needs and could be extended rather quickly with a government lead initiative. The problem will be transport. The solution will be simple. Walk to work. Petrol supplies will priories the government will first take what it needs to implement its energy strategy, then major transport requirements will be met and finally what ever is left will go to consumers.
Over the first decade post peak there will be contant transport cost inflation that will lead to shift to hybrid and electric cars for those who still use them. Mass transit will be massively increased and will utilise hydrogen cells like the bus fleet in London. Most people will simply have to bike or work to in the morning.
Unfortunately those people will be out of a job. First of all, I don't see any government taking the lead in energy anywhere where I would like to live. Secondly, after fuel supply has been prioritised to all essential functions, a lot of "fat" is left behind which makes up the bulk of our service-oriented economies in the West. Really if people in the London commuter belt can't make their 1-2 hour trip to work, they won't have a job because they already can't move any closer. They're Fark. And once they are, so is our magical growth engine. Cue depression. Priority-based rationing could well kill our economies faster than natural price increases. It would only be contemplated in a flash crisis which immediately threatens national survival.
mkwin wrote:
Then there is conservation, by increasing fuel and energy efficiency many experts claim we could reduce our energy demand by as much as 30% without significantly changing our activities.
Yes, trick is persuading people that they are poor enough to conserve. Right now people see debt-driven prosperity all around them and are under the impression that they are fabulously wealthy and have no need to cutting back as the party will last forever. Unfortunately any reality check would necessarily undermine the confidence which drives half the bubble. We're stuck between a rock and a hard place. To be truly persuasive, the case for energy conservation would have to implode the economy as it is made.
mkwin wrote:
Is this scenario completly implausible, if so why?
Yes, for the reasons I have given. As far as market-based and advocacy approaches go, it should by now be obvious that nobody is putting their toys away until they are forcibly taken from them. And investment may not save the day because too many entities lack the resolve or find their credit is already maxed. Really we're Fark, and any nations' chances of survival will depend as much on how early or how late it suffers the impact as it will on what preparations it makes. Early collapse = early adaptation, late collapse = ability to scavenge the rest. It won't pay to exit at the peak of distress.
Joined: Apr 09, 2007 Posts: 5944 Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).
Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2007 11:53 am Post subject: Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?
mkwin wrote:
The US has a significant problem regarding supply, as it has no gas
There are large gas reserves in Alaska, and plans are afoot to build a gas pipeline to hook into Canadian gas pipelines which hook into US gas pipelines. There are also gas fields around the Gulf region that are currently producing.
There's a small minority of folks posting here who understand that Peak Oil is a real problem, but aren't ready to give up on all other forms of energy and return to a neolithic life-style just yet. _________________ "People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf." -- George Orwell
Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2007 12:02 pm Post subject: Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?
Quote:
I'm new to the site and as I was reading I was surprised by the extremely negative views many posters have reading the situation post-peak. It seems like a lot of people are gearing up for Mad-Max style anarchy.
Hi, mk.
It's not peak oil that makes me a "doomer."
It's humanity.
Sure, there's lots that could have been done.
But it wasn't.
There will be not mitigation of peak oil, because it is likely already here.
There will be no preparation for post-peak life, because, once again, it's coming right down the pike.
There's only time now for one thing: ADAPTATION.
Which is what I've been doing. _________________ "By the time individuals discover that remaining resources will not be adequate for the next generation, the next generation has already been born. " David Price
Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2007 12:14 pm Post subject: Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?
mkwin wrote:
Is this scenario completly implausible, if so why?
Obviously you haven't done much reading on this site.
Every single point you raised has been addressed at length for years on this site.
Nothing new to debate in your thread. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Joined: May 08, 2007 Posts: 131 Location: Washington State
Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2007 12:17 pm Post subject: Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?
Quote:
It's not peak oil that makes me a "doomer."
It's humanity.
Same here, I believe we have had the technology and abilities to solve all of the worlds problems quite some time ago, what we lacked was proper thinking. New technology is great but if not used properly does more harm than good. Technology doesn't save people, people save people.
Assuming the massive changes needed suddenly take place is extreme wishful thinking. At a time when we need to get off of the mass consumption wagon China and India are climbing on. Now to hard to stop let alone try and steer it. _________________ An Optimist is eventually wrong, A Pessimist is eventually right.
Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2007 12:22 pm Post subject: Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?
mkwin wrote:
Then there is conservation, by increasing fuel and energy efficiency many experts claim we could reduce our energy demand by as much as 30% without significantly changing our activities.
Efficiency gains increase consumption; they do not reduce it.
Jevons' Paradox.
Spend some time reading here before you post such claims. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Last edited by MonteQuest on Fri Jun 01, 2007 1:40 pm; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 6617 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2007 12:41 pm Post subject: Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?
Hi mkwin, thanks for posting your ideas, don't take the flames personally, for the most part we are good folks once you get used to us.
mkwin wrote:
It seems like a lot of people are gearing up for Mad-Max style anarchy.
Not really. Sure there is a lot of idle talk along those lines (on the bosses time) but most of the folks who are actually doing anything at all, are preparing more for bad economic times than running gun battles.
But to your main point, it seems to me we just ain't geared for Boulder Dam style projects anymore. You can't build a chicken coop without EIR’s, zoning variances, public hearings, lawsuits, a wet stamp from a structural engineer, minority bidders, OSHA inspectors, archeological artifact repatriation; fire, building and public health department sign-offs and God knows what else.
All those things you mention either cost big bucks or cost lots of lost jobs, and in the US at least it sure looks like we are quickly approaching our credit limit. It seems to me it all boils down to money – everyone is trying so hard to feather their nest they don’t realize they are fouling it instead.
I just can’t see that changing without a big attitude adjustment up-side the head.
And things aren't gonna get easier as energy supplies get tighter.
So, no I don't think those things are implausable, and I hope for my kids sake it turns out just like you describe: we all get a clue and quit sh!tting the nest, the population declines before it collapses and we realize it's not nice to fool with Mother Nature.
However, I don't think it will be quite as orderly as all that...
Again, keep reading and posting and try to ignore the more caustic remarks. _________________ Make a plan and work it:
Joined: Jan 13, 2006 Posts: 138 Location: toronto, not anymore
Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2007 12:57 pm Post subject: Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?
electric cars
hohoho thats a good one
...see people aren't willing to give up their convenience, instead of a change they look for a solution to keep doing what they are already doing
could you imagine what 50% of the north american car fleet would do to the electrical grid if it was plugged in.
remmeber that big east coast blackout that happened 2,3 years ago
also remember i want a car, you want a car and any kids we have will want a car because thats what were teaching them _________________ LOOKING FOR -a view of the enditems-
Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2007 1:25 pm Post subject: Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?
Pops wrote:
Again, keep reading and posting and try to ignore the more caustic remarks.
The best way to avoid caustic remarks is to do your homework before posting, spend some time reading the various threads here...and, most importantly, provide links to sources to back up your claims.
Otherwise, why should we just rehash ground already covered ad naseum? _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2007 1:28 pm Post subject: Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?
Post script:
As a measure of my seriousness about preparing for the worst:
1. I've just had my 1979 Fuji 12-speed fully restored (rides lovely!)
2. We've doubled the size of our garden. Matter of fact, I'm sitting here, sweating, from putting in another row of onions.
3. We've "powered down" considerably, meaning we can go without electricity here for weeks if necessary.
4. We've just salted a bunch of pork for next winter's beans. _________________ "By the time individuals discover that remaining resources will not be adequate for the next generation, the next generation has already been born. " David Price
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