Posts: 59
Registered: Dec 2004 Posted January 6th, 2005 07:13 PM IP
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Ok, I was surfing around the internet last night and stumbled upon http://www.peakoil.com/ The basic gist of the site and the people running it is a sound one. Basically, our society is entirely too dependant on the use of oil. Nations like China and India with around one billion people EACH (the US is only about 275 million) are going to catch up technologically and start consuming more oil as well.
...and there in lies the problem. The amount of oil used EVERYDAY is astronomical. If other nations start using the same amount of oil per capita as the US, the world's oil levels are going to zip in our lifetimes. When that happens, our society is going to come grinding to a halt. If you think about it, our society is already so dependant on computers, if some kind of massive internet-wide crash occurred, we would be in serious trouble. Our banking system would take a serious hit, and that would have a trickle down effect in the areas of health care and public safety, just to name a few. Our police systems would be thrown back about 30 years in an instant.
So, the thought is that the civilized world is going to be thrown back in time, and our governments are not working adequately to prepare for the situation. Personally, I've been trying to teach myself basic survival skills in the past few years for my own benefit (how to cook and clean small game, make a fire with matches, etc.). The site is interesting reading, regardless of whether you consider this thing possible.
ben91069
Member
Posts: 4
Registered: Jan 2005 Posted January 6th, 2005 11:28 PM IP
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Well I for one believe in it, but like many others who share my sentiment, no one really knows for sure when oil production will go into decline and prices will rise indefinitely. I personally believe that we are teetering on the brink of this and is one of the strategic reasons we went to Iraq - to get a larger foothold in middle-eastern oil producing nations (never mind Bush's stated reasons).
I think inevitably, if we don't find good solutions soon, we will be in a world of hurt.
I think you quoted you were a police officer, what do you think this will do to the crime rate if inflation skyrockets beyond belief because of oil depletion? It could get very scary.
gilatif
Administrator
Posts: 59
Registered: Dec 2004 Posted January 6th, 2005 11:49 PM IP
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You're right, I am a police officer for the city of Dayton. I think if what these people are saying happens, we won't even measure crime rate anymore, because society will totally break down.
I know this topic isn't as glamorous as politics or the war in Iraq or tsuamis, but its real, its serious, and no one is really paying attention. Take a drive through Dayton or any American city. The overwhelming majority of urban Americans are not ready to be self-sufficient, and have no desire to learn. I'm not completely ready yet, but I'm working towards it. Think about the major summer blackout parts of America had in 2003. Think about the Rodney King riots in LA. Think about a natural disaster on scale with Southeastern Asia's tsuamis. Any one of those things could result in a short term break down of our society. We have one bad snowfall and look at the letters to the editor in the DDN. Some guy writing in to complain that his wife couldn't get his insulin because of the snow. I sympathize with the problem, but let's be real. You can't depend on the government for ANYTHING. Even the notion that the police protect citizens is an illusion. If this guy was brought to his knees by a few days of government slowdown, how would many people fare with a couple days of TOTAL government shut down? How about a week or two?
You have to think, in a worse case scenario, if the world's oil supply was interrupted, the current supply of oil would truly be liquid gold. Police officers would be back to riding horses, and we'd be carrying hand loaded rounds in our weapons, possibly black powder. How would it affect how our food supply is delievered? How many people know how to grown their own food? When oil prices go up, the shockwave affect the entire stock market. If/when the oil supply hits the danger levels, its going to be a nightmare
I have done much reading on all the SHTF, etc. scenarios, and I gotta tell you; Peak Oil seems quite possible given the current situation in the world. Oil is going to run out. No question about it. The concern is that this isn't our immediate problem. Before it runs out, it's going to get damn scarce. (naturally) We are seeing the ramifications of this now, with Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, etc, etc.. The next flaspoint may be in the Caspian region. The U.S. isn't the only oil dependant nation and I see much bigger problems in the future as everyone starts wrestling for a dwindling supply.
I'm sure we're all familiar with Peak Oil, so no history lesson. What I am wondering is this: We know that it's going to happen. Some question as to when, and how bad the effects are going to be. The world economy will obviously go down the tubes, at least for awhile. So what we're looking at here, and hopefully preparing for, is economic collapse. All the "nuclear attack" scenarios aren't immediately feasible. Over time with prolonged chaos, perhaps Russia or China takes a sucker punch at us, but I don't see that as an immediate concern.
The U.S. economy crashes, the world economy crashes. We may be left to "fend" for ourselves if it gets bad enough. You gotta wonder how the powers that be are preparing for all this, but they are not informing the public about the scenario, and for good reasons.
Sorry this is so long. I'm going to throw this out there, then I gotta go to classes all day. How seriously are you preparing for this scenario, how bad do you really think it will be, and what indicators are you watching for that tell you "It's time"?
Joined: Aug 14, 2004 Posts: 2063 Location: San Diego, Ca.
Posted: Fri Jan 07, 2005 3:39 am Post subject:
Ayoob_Reloaded, I was heavily involved in that one! I think I made some headway too!
Here is the link:
AR15.com _________________ "Peak oil isn't more than an interesting industry factoid and doesn't have anything to do with the hysterics speculated on ad nauseum around here!" ReserveGrowthRulz
Wow Jato, you sure fought the good fight on that one. The level of ignorance and apathy about Peak Oil still surprises me -- such as the posters on that board who claimed it was a scam or said coal and biodiesel would save the day. The guy promoting TDP (which BTW now appears to be a solid technology) forgets that TDP is essentially a recycling process, like turning old newspapers into new cardboard -- you still need to start with the newspapers.
You might want to add the Energy Resources site at Yahoo -- <http://groups.yahoo.com/group/energyresources/> -- to your list of references for current information and discussion, although right now they seem to be mired down in some useless commentary on cannibalism and air-powered vehicles.
Kudos... _________________ "When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.
that "fleeced" comment is pretty funny too. Taking your equity out of your house to buy a sport ute that depreciates 40% per year is fleeced. Increasing your christmas spending on visa with a flat income this year is fleeced.
So you believe something that turned out to be wrong. You just look stupid. You don't lose anything other than face. OTOH, you've got qeues of people willing to tell you how good, smart, etc, you are while they take your money. That's fleeced.
After reading that whole mess I want to add a few points.
I don't like tinfoil hat people. I think they're nuts. I stay at this site because I think there is some credibility here. It comes from two places:
1) some of the more sober analysts out there, such as Simmons et al.
2) careful consideration of the role of petroleum in our economy.
Regarding number 2, it seems that many of your friends over there haven't really thought this all the way through. They seem to be missing at least some componenet. Economics, agriculture, transportation, plastics, and pharmaceuticals, and more. Also, one's own energy consumption isn't the whole story. In the short run, ecnomically it is cheaper to have a smaller house, travel more mpgs, and so on. But in the long run, the problem becomes recession food water military blah blah blah.
And finally, one little piece I don't see anywhere is urban planning. We have built the US for cars. Cities happen because they are more efficient and more pleasant than rural living. But the edge cities we have built are tremendously ineffcient. That will be the problem. And that could be where the first large gains in conservation show up. Make the cities operate more like the walkable neighborhoods good cities were meant to be 100 years ago (industrial nightmares aside) and how much do we save immediately?
Joined: Aug 14, 2004 Posts: 2063 Location: San Diego, Ca.
Posted: Fri Jan 07, 2005 2:28 pm Post subject:
I think I have finished pouring energy on that thread. Anyone who is pro-survival join up and take over.
Aaron, I think I mentioned the DOE report. But then again, I have been in several discussions on different boards and it is hard to keep track. _________________ "Peak oil isn't more than an interesting industry factoid and doesn't have anything to do with the hysterics speculated on ad nauseum around here!" ReserveGrowthRulz
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