Joined: Nov 18, 2004 Posts: 1091 Location: Central Texas
Posted: Mon Jun 04, 2007 5:53 pm Post subject: Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?
AgentR wrote:
Its a lot easier to live without A/C in the summer in Texas than it is to live without heat in Montana in the winter.
Wow, isn't that the truth. If the future must depend on more solar energy, and not so much on fossil fuels, then there will be a lot of people who may have to relocate, and I think we're already seeing that demographic transition occuring.
Quote:
July + Shade tree + Hammock.... = heaven.
Next to the pool with a tall glass of iced lemonade and tequila.
<---has only run the central AC about 10 hrs this year so far. Last month's home energy bill: $41.50. _________________ About my avatar: Guess.
Joined: Mar 26, 2005 Posts: 3788 Location: over here
Posted: Mon Jun 04, 2007 6:02 pm Post subject: Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?
the overly pessimistic definately have a bigger tendency to stick around these forums, most probably skewing the general atmosphere into something a bit more pessimistic than the future will prove to be; it's easy to underestimate feedback systems in both nature and in human society (both psychological as well as economical)
I do think technological improvements in the field of energy should not be counted on, and apart from some improvement in solar, not expected. _________________ "The best thing about the future is that it comes only one day at a time."
Posted: Mon Jun 04, 2007 6:47 pm Post subject: Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?
MonteQuest wrote:
Thanks! A little homework goes a long way. By this time, the level of discourse on this site should be at least as high as at the oildrum.
Try posting some of the spurious remarks you see here on their forum.
Yikes!
Homework should include a broad range of reading, and encompass the political and sociological realm, with a smattering of criminology and a heavy emphasis on market dynamics and economy.
Anyone limiting their reading to "science" or "oil", narrowly defined, is not going to come away from here with an enlightened point of view. And if the people who ARE broadly educated, comment in a way that is at odds with your "background material" their comments should not necessarily be labelled "spurious". They just don't always agree with you, or your sources.
Joined: Dec 02, 2005 Posts: 6446 Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
Posted: Tue Jun 05, 2007 2:19 am Post subject: Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?
bshirt wrote:
...Oh boy, how would you like to be one of those pitiful people in AZ, Nevada, Texas, SoCal, NM, etc when natural gas isn't available in the summer?
Those poor bastards are going to cook.
And it's going to be real pleasant in the Southeast, as well, where high heat is combined with extreme humidity... _________________ "Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
Posted: Tue Jun 05, 2007 6:11 am Post subject: Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?
AgentR wrote:
bshirt wrote:
Oh boy, how would you like to be one of those pitiful people in AZ, Nevada, Texas, SoCal, NM, etc when natural gas isn't available in the summer?
Those poor bastards are going to cook.
Nah. We didn't cook before A/C; and we won't cook after A/C. Granted, there may be a few yankee imports that may have to learn on the fly about how to live without A/C....
Its a lot easier to live without A/C in the summer in Texas than it is to live without heat in Montana in the winter.
July + Shade tree + Hammock.... = heaven.
Well, if you say so.
As a field service tech, I was sent to San Antonio about seven or eight years ago in late June through mid July.
Posted: Fri Jun 08, 2007 10:26 pm Post subject: Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?
This is what I get for leaving this here. *sigh*
The original post was marginally about energy technology but this post seem more appropriate for the Peak Oil Discussion forum now.
I'm leaving this here for a few days as a reminder that this forum is about Energy Technology. I take that to mean that we should focus here on specific energy technologies instead of the broad class of "technology" as "the thing that saves us from peak oil." Any synthesis reports posted here must be backed up with lots and lots of numbers. I hope that is clear. _________________ EntropyFails
"Little prigs and three-quarter madmen may have the conceit that the laws of nature are constantly broken for their sakes." -- Friedrich Nietzsche
Posted: Thu Aug 30, 2007 3:11 am Post subject: Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?
kochevnik wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:
bshirt wrote:
Where the hell did all this mindless bureaucracy come from?
As building contractor, I can tell you it came from people building swingsets in their backyards that weren't safe.
Building permits exist for two main reasons; safety and uniform construction standards.
You should see the stuff people build without them.
Building permits and all the asshole regulations just like them (cosmetology "licenses" come to mind) are designed for one reason only - to stifle free competition and to preserve and increase the number of govt employees.
And when the time comes in the very near future when it becomes clear to all that SOMETHING needs to be done - we will wallow in regulations and red tape and NIMBY-isms and not a goddamn thing will ever get done. Furthermore, those that TRY to do something will be crucified by the establishment - that's why there is no way to live a single day in this country any more without breaking some ridiculous law or regulation.
Tainter says that civilizations die from too much complexity - we're there already - have been since the 1970's - just taking a long time to kill this giant pig.
This is an exageration. The reason we see so much red tape and regulation in modern society is the simple fact that it is easy for governments to legislate their way out of problems.
If somebody's self-build house catches fire and kills people, it is easy for the governmnet/local authority to deal with the problem by creating new rules and regulations. It doesn't really cost them anything and although it kills individual innovation, the simple fact is that most houses, gazebos, whatever, are manufactured and assembled by large companies that can afford the extra burden of regulation. The problem is most neatly illustrated in the food industry. Anyone can make jam for themselves, but to make jam and sell it, you need to comply with so many food safety regulations that it just isn't worthwhile getting strated in the business unless you are a massive company and intend to manufcature the stuff on a massive scale. Regulation is one of the things behind economy of scale.
I think the central problem is that no-one really conducts proper cost benefit analysis before introducing legislation.
Posted: Thu Aug 30, 2007 3:40 am Post subject: Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?
mkwin wrote:
MonteQuest -
4) Renewables – You quote current renewable figures but they don’t reflect the possibility of renewables. For just one example, in the UK a plan has been proposed for a 14 billion GBP tidal farm off the river seven that will provide 5% of energy needs of the country – carbon free and perpetual and this is just a fraction of our wind and tidal resources. The next generation PV has such great potential and the production increase in silicon and economies of scale drove down the cost by 40% in 2006. Spain has announced a plan to get the majority of its electricity from solar by 2015, this could be replicated in many southern states (especially Arizona). The current renewable amounts are based on PAST market conditions, frankly given their PAST cost competitiveness I’m surprised they have reached that level in a free market system but those conditions are changing rapidly.
Britain's tidal, wind and wave resources are about the best in the world and in tidal power especially, our resource is a significant fraction of the entire world's resource.
One of the things that struck me when looking at the UK's renewable energy resources is just how finite the total resources were. Tidal, hydro and biomass, have technical potentials considerably smaller than the energy we are now using, and I am talking about electricity and not total delivered energy. Technical potential, more or less assumes that we utilise all of the practically available resource. As I pointed out, the UK has some of the best potential in the world for tidal, wind and wave energy sources and above avergae potential for biomass, by vitue of our good soils and temperate and moist climate. Yet, even wind and wave could only provide a large fraction of our present electricity supply, if developed them on a trully massive scale (that is a scale that is so large that it approaches the actual natural limits of what nature can provide).
Tidal is a good case in point. The Bristol channel is one of the most powerful tidal systems in the world. Impressive plans have been drawn up to build a 12GWe barrage across the estuary, stretching from North Devon to South West Wales. This would be one of the largest civil engineering projects in the history of mankind. Yet, the fact remains that limited capacity factors will reduce the power output of the barrage to just 2-3GWe, equivelent to just two nuclear reactors. And building the thing would ruin the ecology of the Bristol channel.
Expanding renewables will require a lot of time and investmnet money committed to a long term project, something that UK finance is famously bad at.
Now consider the case for a country like Germany or Belgium, which has none of our tidal or wave resources and only a fraction of our wind resource. Having studied renewable energy for some time, I find it difficult to be optimistic about it.
Posted: Thu Aug 30, 2007 7:31 am Post subject: Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?
Also, what are your thoughts on Solar? It seems like advancements in efficiency are occurring all the time. Couldn't Solar be a significant portion of Germanys mix?
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