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Peakoil.com :: View topic - Temperature Anomolies Mar-May 2007 (Check out Siberia!)
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Temperature Anomolies Mar-May 2007 (Check out Siberia!)
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entropyfails
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 17, 2007 3:23 am    Post subject: Temperature Anomolies Mar-May 2007 (Check out Siberia!) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Siberia has to be belching out Methane like a monster with these temps....



I've heard stories of gas pipes shutting down because of methane sensor's going off as the permafrost gives up its dead. Anyone have any idea of what's going on in that region?
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Fredrik
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 17, 2007 5:07 am    Post subject: Re: Temperature Anomolies Mar-May 2007 (Check out Siberia!) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Fascinating that Alaska and NW Canada have been cooler than usual in recent months, in contrast to Siberia. Could methane alone explain this? If I understand correctly, warming should be strongest at northernmost latitudes in any case. Maybe ocean current shifts are causing unexpected changes there.
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eXpat
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 17, 2007 5:37 am    Post subject: Re: Temperature Anomolies Mar-May 2007 (Check out Siberia!) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Here in the UK it has been way cooler than previous years as well, last time I check, the global conveyor belt was greatly slowdowned. Just time will tell what is the effect of climate change here. On the other hand, drought is spreading in the southeastern United States link.
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“Seeing the effects this early in the year shows we are in a really unprecedented situation,” said John Christy, the state climatologist and a professor at the University of Alabama in Huntsville.

The arid conditions mean the atmosphere will heat up more than normal as summer approaches, making extreme temperatures more common across the region, he said.

The combined effects on agriculture could be devastating.

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frankthetank
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 17, 2007 12:03 pm    Post subject: Re: Temperature Anomolies Mar-May 2007 (Check out Siberia!) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Do you really believe 29 years worth of data to compare with is enough??? I agree that i do think that temps are on there way up, but at some point, won't they crash... big time? Its bound to happen. One just has to look @ ice core samples and see the countless ice ages that have plagued this planet.

Its been too warm up here lately. I'm @ around 40N and we should be 95F today. Thats 6 90F+ days this year. I still doubt we catch 1988 with its 45 90F+ days.

I believe the bigger story right now is the drought that is starting to plague the southeast and is growing. I've ready some parts of AL are 50 inches shy of normal over the course of the last couple years. Thats with data going back to the late 1800's.

The thing about weather is it likes to go to extremes.
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Qolio
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 17, 2007 6:26 pm    Post subject: Re: Temperature Anomolies Mar-May 2007 (Check out Siberia!) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Here's a similar map for the full year 2006:

Interestingly, in large parts of Siberia it was colder than the base period average. So what do these kind of graphs prove? Pretty much nothing, except that you cannot make any conclusions about local temperature anomalies by using such short periods of time.
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oiless
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 17, 2007 7:00 pm    Post subject: Re: Temperature Anomolies Mar-May 2007 (Check out Siberia!) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Both maps show more red than blue. How far back are these maps available? Do they all show more red than blue?
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MOCKBA
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 17, 2007 10:37 pm    Post subject: Re: Temperature Anomolies Mar-May 2007 (Check out Siberia!) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I cannot believe it is mid June and I am still driving top-down... Here in Hotlanta, top-down times usually end in early May... Not this year... This year we had 1/3 of usual percipitation (so my lawn look like crap), but I could drive top down into mid June...

Seriously thought... in 8 years I've been driving convertible this is the first year like this... Just one day so far I regreted not to drive an enclosed car with an AC... and in less then 3 months (September is usually when I switch from BMW to convertibles) I would never spend $500 on AC till next summer...

Climat is doing weird things.... From 35C to 5C in a matter of weeks in central Russia - my daddy is having a cold while talking to me on a phone... and I am still driving top down....
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essex
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 18, 2007 3:02 am    Post subject: Re: Temperature Anomolies Mar-May 2007 (Check out Siberia!) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

From about 1940 to about 1970 world temperatures actually fell so I wouldn't get too alarmed about a comparative increase occurring now. In fact what is an optimum climate for the world anyway. Would the AGW mob be happy with an ice sheet covering North America as it did 20,000 years ago ??





There are common features in all the global temperature records
A fall from 1880 to 1910
A rise from 1910 to 1940
A fall from 1940 to 1970
A rise from 1970 to 2002
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Smudger
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 18, 2007 4:11 am    Post subject: Re: Temperature Anomolies Mar-May 2007 (Check out Siberia!) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

up until May the UK had the hottest months ever recorded....now we've had it raining so much that we have received more rain in one day than the whole average for June. when it has not been raining the temperatures have been above the norm.

it will be interesting what july and August do this year.

I really do think we should move on from whether this is man made global warming. the C4 TV was shown to be badly flawed, the temperature changes over the past many centuries (not just into the 1800's) have been shown not to have the consistent increase in temperature rise we are seeing now on and on. it part of this a natural warming - quite possibly but to be clear the evidence is so compelling now that it will take more than the misquoting in a C4 programme to avoid the reality that man is materially contributing to accelerating global warming.

do i know what temperature it will be in 2100? nope but i do know that cutting back on our energy consumption and our consumption of metals, paper, oil etc will have a positive effect both on global warming and PO - and that's not to mean (at the moment) we all have to start living like hippies and wearing our pants for four days (front, back and then inside out....). to me it seems a no brainer to absolutely remove avoidable waste.
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Cabrone
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 18, 2007 4:26 am    Post subject: Re: Temperature Anomolies Mar-May 2007 (Check out Siberia!) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Quote:
So what do these kind of graphs prove?


That there is a lot more heating going on than cooling.
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Qolio
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 18, 2007 7:24 am    Post subject: Re: Temperature Anomolies Mar-May 2007 (Check out Siberia!) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Cabrone wrote:
Quote:
So what do these kind of graphs prove?

That there is a lot more heating going on than cooling.

What you say is true, but you really cannot know it without first analyzing the complete temperature history and then eliminating natural temperature fluctuations. You'll have to be able to show with a high probability, that the anomaly map for next couple of months won't be full of blue dots.
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Cabrone
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 18, 2007 12:01 pm    Post subject: Re: Temperature Anomolies Mar-May 2007 (Check out Siberia!) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Yes, it's about trends rather than individual measurements.

What is their definition of 'anomalies' BTW?
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Mechler
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 18, 2007 1:28 pm    Post subject: Re: Temperature Anomolies Mar-May 2007 (Check out Siberia!) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

essex wrote:
In fact what is an optimum climate for the world anyway. Would the AGW mob be happy with an ice sheet covering North America as it did 20,000 years ago ??


This is a great point - it's the rate of change that we should be concerned about.
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Zardoz
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 19, 2007 1:52 am    Post subject: Re: Temperature Anomolies Mar-May 2007 (Check out Siberia!) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Mechler wrote:
...it's the rate of change that we should be concerned about.

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic29833.html

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Dan1195
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 26, 2007 5:18 pm    Post subject: Re: Temperature Anomolies Mar-May 2007 (Check out Siberia!) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

In related news, arctic sea is continuing to decrease at a rapid rate. As seen here the decline has been much most rapid since 2001, even ahead of computer model projections. April 2007 saw a record minimum for that month, and a similar record for june is almost assured. If straight line trends continue, the arctic will be ice free in summer in 40 years. But some of the computer models show even more rapid summer ice loss once is declines to a certain level.
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