How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Joined: Mar 26, 2005 Posts: 3671 Location: over here
Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2007 10:13 am Post subject: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
I've heard quite alot of talk on the European Union on this board but usually it's not more than a quick, superficial remark from an (American) doomer that says it will fall apart as soon as we enter the PO economic crisis. I don't believe that will be the case however.
I think Europe knows damn well that going at it alone will not be an option, we learned that lesson after two world wars and that lesson will not be easily forgotton (if at all). No doubt there will be economic strains on the Union that will sour some relationships but I can't imagine any country wanting to leave the union as that will only worsen the economic predicament that a particular country is facing. Same goes for the Euro; there will be calls in any country to leave it and some politicians will seize on that for political gain, but I simply don't see it happening as any superficial economic analysis will show that it would be economic suicide.
Now to the relations of the different peoples within the EU. From my personal observation I think relations have never been better; there's a huge amount of common respect, a big sense of common history and a shared political unity and culture that should make Americans jealous.
If anything, I see PO creating the need for further integration, especially when it comes to defense as the world around us will become increasingly chaotic and dangerous.
Ofcourse, I'm only one European and I expect some others will strongly disagree with me. So fellow Europeans (and British ), what do you think? _________________ "The best thing about the future is that it comes only one day at a time."
Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2007 10:43 am Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
Hi Bas
I do agree with you in general but IMHO what i see is that the relationship between people of the original states of the EU is excellent, with the new states, we have to wait and see, there's have been a huge immigration movement recently, and the impact in the economy is to say the least, still controversial. Something that I consider very worrisome is that public opinion seems to be moving towards right wing parties and policies. Everywhere. Sometimes I wonder if we have really learnt anything from the past? .
Just my 2 cents. _________________ Stocking up on popcorn
Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2007 10:49 am Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
As they say when voting for the Eurovision Song Contest: Hello from Spain, Bas. My vote? Great britain, nul points.
The EU would be far more united if the UK would finally make up their minds and simply retire from Europe. They are always one step forward, one step back: "we want to be european but we don't want to open our borders (no Schengen agreement) we want to benefit from european subsidies but we don't want to pay our debts, and we can't possibly give up our queen's head on the currency, so no Euro for us, thank you very much..."
The so-called 'special relationship' between the UK and the US means the UK will invariably do what's best for Anglo-US business, to me, the UK is the proverbial thorn in the EU's side, they are consistently putting up barriers to agreements and reform.
Generally there is a growing sense of commonality across european countries, but I think Sarkozy is also going to do his bit to sabotage this, his suggestion of Blair for EU president is simply horrifying: how to weaken europe= put a British man at the helm. The individual economic/political problems of member states far outweigh this feeling of commonality however, and when push comes to shove, governments will choose national interests over european.
As economies become affected, some more than others, across europe due to the energy crisis and recession in the US, my view is that gradually the role of an EU government will decline, but I don't think this will affect the sense of community which has generated from so many years of peace and prosperity. The idea of a united Europe will persist only for as long as it is perceived to be a positive influence in the individual nation states' economies.
Joined: Mar 20, 2007 Posts: 167 Location: There is no hope for the future
Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2007 10:56 am Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
I have just returned to the UK having spent a year in Hungary here is the way I see it:
The Hungarians and all of the ex-pats from other european countries love talking politics, so much so that the UK expats do it there too, very refreshing. Now that i am back, all i have been asked my opinion on football and TV shows like Big brother, the apprentice and other such awfullness. Not one mention of politics.
I think that the UK will remain isolated due to the 'island mentality', 'fear of them foreigners' and our europe hating tabloid press, even though it has one of the most diverse ethnic and cultural populations in the world, I would love to know the opinion of the other pre 2004 non-euro countries.
The other countries, even with their sometimes open hostility towards eachother will form better and deeper relationships, they all know what happens if they dont.
The infrastructure of the EU countries, except UK is good and getting better, public transport, recycling, alternative energy, cycle facilities.....not perfect but compared to the UK miles better.
The driver for further change has to be a common constitution, foreign policy, finance and defence. for that to happen the European Commission needs to get some proper balls and stop acting like a corrupt african country.
I think that for all its blustering Russia will play a huge part in the future of the EU, not just for its gas and oil but even part integration, further trade agreements, even foreign policy agreements especially if America keeps going the way that it is. As much as I hate to say it, Russia is like the big scary kid in the playground that smokes and says the odd word to frighten the smaller kids but only occasionally gets involved. the EU is the smaller kids and America is a bully from another school.
When TSHTF, I think that the EU will be in better shape than the rest of the world to ensure the survival of a large portion of its population, that is, after all what our governments job is.
No real scientific facts here, just my own and my drinking buddies observations, drunken mumblings and WAG's
Joined: Mar 26, 2005 Posts: 3671 Location: over here
Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2007 11:03 am Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
eXpat wrote:
Hi Bas
I do agree with you in general but IMHO what i see is that the relationship between people of the original states of the EU is excellent, with the new states, we have to wait and see, there's have been a huge immigration movement recently, and the impact in the economy is to say the least, still controversial. Something that I consider very worrisome is that public opinion seems to be moving towards right wing parties and policies. Everywhere. Sometimes I wonder if we have really learnt anything from the past? .
Just my 2 cents.
Ah yeah, the relationship with the new memberstates, in particular Romania and Bulgaria and Eastern Europe in general is definately a wait and see. While I think we have alot in common regarding history and culture, Eastern Europe has always been a bit behind when it came to development, most notably of course the fact that they were communist for 45 years. And while they are developing fast the lack of democratic tradition, like most of western Europe has might lead to some political friction. However, these new memberstates have the most to gain from membership, like Ireland and Spain gained alot from membership in the past. Immigration from these parts to Western Europe might cause some dissatisfaction "here" (like I've heard that's what's happening to some extend in Ireland) but in the end these people look like us, have pretty much the same culture and religion and are much more easily integrated in their new home countries then for instance Arabs or Africans.
When it comes to economics; I have the feeling that in Europe we're starting to reap the benefits of the Euro, mostly in the form of dropping prices. And though it's hard to say whether those kind of changes are a result of the common market/Euro or local improvements in the Economy, since you can't compare your country with a without common market/Euro situation, I strongly suspect that both the introduction of the common market and Euro has had quite a positive effect on the buying power of Europeans. _________________ "The best thing about the future is that it comes only one day at a time."
Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2007 11:35 am Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
Bas wrote:
...I strongly suspect that both the introduction of the common market and Euro has had quite a positive effect on the buying power of Europeans.
Don't let Italians or Spaniards hear you say that; anecdotal evidence tells me they were being ripped off after the change, as the transition to the Euro provided sufficient cover for massive price hikes on everyday goods.
That attitude might well have changed in the last four years, though. _________________ "It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."
Joined: Mar 26, 2005 Posts: 3671 Location: over here
Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2007 11:54 am Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
virgincrude wrote:
As they say when voting for the Eurovision Song Contest: Hello from Spain, Bas. My vote? Great britain, nul points.
The EU would be far more united if the UK would finally make up their minds and simply retire from Europe. They are always one step forward, one step back: "we want to be european but we don't want to open our borders (no Schengen agreement) we want to benefit from european subsidies but we don't want to pay our debts, and we can't possibly give up our queen's head on the currency, so no Euro for us, thank you very much..."
The so-called 'special relationship' between the UK and the US means the UK will invariably do what's best for Anglo-US business, to me, the UK is the proverbial thorn in the EU's side, they are consistently putting up barriers to agreements and reform.
Generally there is a growing sense of commonality across european countries, but I think Sarkozy is also going to do his bit to sabotage this, his suggestion of Blair for EU president is simply horrifying: how to weaken europe= put a British man at the helm. The individual economic/political problems of member states far outweigh this feeling of commonality however, and when push comes to shove, governments will choose national interests over european.
As economies become affected, some more than others, across europe due to the energy crisis and recession in the US, my view is that gradually the role of an EU government will decline, but I don't think this will affect the sense of community which has generated from so many years of peace and prosperity. The idea of a united Europe will persist only for as long as it is perceived to be a positive influence in the individual nation states' economies.
I knew the British "issue" would come up sooner or later You make some interesting points though I don't totally agree with them; Yes Britain is a special case within Europe and yes they are closer to America both in language and in the way they have shaped their economy over recent decades (before that they had more state industry than most of western Europe.) When it comes to business though, Europe is more important than the US; actually the UK and Holland may have more of a link than the US and UK with anglo-dutch giants like Corus, Shell and Unilever.
Aside from that the Island mentalitiy definately plays a role, as it does in the US. Europeans for a long time were physically seperated from the Brits, example: I sometimes take my bicycle for a ride into germany (it's only about 10km from where I live), Brits can never do such a thing.
The special economic status of britain however was a result of how their economy was shaped, and the way the contribution system and infrastructure/agricultural subsidy system works. England was quite poor when it joined the EU and would still have to contribute alot and hardly get anything back under these systems (unlike Spain for example). It wasn't hard for anyone to see that the system was treating the UK unfairly so they got their rebate.
Also I get the sense that the people in the UK, over the last 10 years or so are slowly warming up to the idea of Europe, and I believe they will be ultimately a leading member of it; I guess the British just needed/needs more time to get used to the idea of Europe as they always were such a (geographically) distinct part of Europe. So no, I would never say something like "Britain has to choose".
Oh and I think Sarkozy is quite pro Europe, his proposal to put Blair at the helm only confirms that IMO; he wants to get Britain more involved in it, and though Blair is somewhat of an ideological enemy to conservative Sarkozy, we all know that Blair is quite pro Europe. Oh and yeah, the Dutch still have their Queen on the national side of the Euro (and only the dutch Euro says "God is with us" )
I guess I want to say much more but will leave it at this for the moment so that other Europeans can have their say _________________ "The best thing about the future is that it comes only one day at a time."
Joined: Mar 26, 2005 Posts: 3671 Location: over here
Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2007 12:00 pm Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
emersonbiggins wrote:
Bas wrote:
...I strongly suspect that both the introduction of the common market and Euro has had quite a positive effect on the buying power of Europeans.
Don't let Italians or Spaniards hear you say that; anecdotal evidence tells me they were being ripped off after the change, as the transition to the Euro provided sufficient cover for massive price hikes on everyday goods.
That attitude might well have changed in the last four years, though.
We had that same perception in Holland in the first year, especially in the gastronomy part of the economy; businesses taking advantage of the switchover to raise their prices. Since however, prices have remained very stable and said businesses have got a bad name. Recently however I've found that a remarkable number of products have dropped in price significanly though this also can be a result of the 30% appreciation of the Euro vs Dollar. _________________ "The best thing about the future is that it comes only one day at a time."
Joined: Mar 26, 2005 Posts: 3671 Location: over here
Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2007 12:11 pm Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
idomar wrote:
I have just returned to the UK having spent a year in Hungary here is the way I see it:
The Hungarians and all of the ex-pats from other european countries love talking politics, so much so that the UK expats do it there too, very refreshing. Now that i am back, all i have been asked my opinion on football and TV shows like Big brother, the apprentice and other such awfullness. Not one mention of politics.
I think that the UK will remain isolated due to the 'island mentality', 'fear of them foreigners' and our europe hating tabloid press, even though it has one of the most diverse ethnic and cultural populations in the world, I would love to know the opinion of the other pre 2004 non-euro countries.
The other countries, even with their sometimes open hostility towards eachother will form better and deeper relationships, they all know what happens if they dont.
The infrastructure of the EU countries, except UK is good and getting better, public transport, recycling, alternative energy, cycle facilities.....not perfect but compared to the UK miles better.
The driver for further change has to be a common constitution, foreign policy, finance and defence. for that to happen the European Commission needs to get some proper balls and stop acting like a corrupt african country.
I think that for all its blustering Russia will play a huge part in the future of the EU, not just for its gas and oil but even part integration, further trade agreements, even foreign policy agreements especially if America keeps going the way that it is. As much as I hate to say it, Russia is like the big scary kid in the playground that smokes and says the odd word to frighten the smaller kids but only occasionally gets involved. the EU is the smaller kids and America is a bully from another school.
When TSHTF, I think that the EU will be in better shape than the rest of the world to ensure the survival of a large portion of its population, that is, after all what our governments job is.
No real scientific facts here, just my own and my drinking buddies observations, drunken mumblings and WAG's
I hear ya. Are you referring to the railway privatisation disaster when you talk about the the infrastructure getting worse? I think said privatisation scheme was a European deal but was put on hold indefinately after seeing what happened in the UK.
And yeah, we gotta see how we can unite to make a fist against said bullies _________________ "The best thing about the future is that it comes only one day at a time."
Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2007 1:04 pm Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
Bas wrote:
I think Europe knows damn well that going at it alone will not be an option, we learned that lesson after two world wars and that lesson will not be easily forgotton (if at all). No doubt there will be economic strains on the Union that will sour some relationships but I can't imagine any country wanting to leave the union as that will only worsen the economic predicament that a particular country is facing. Same goes for the Euro; there will be calls in any country to leave it and some politicians will seize on that for political gain, but I simply don't see it happening as any superficial economic analysis will show that it would be economic suicide.
You had forgotten one important factor: Russia and their divide and rule policy.
It appears to me, that major efforts of russian international policy are directed towards destroying unity of EU by means of opening (and closing...) of tap.
You have to note as well, that there is an alternative customer for Russian oil and gas: China. That means, Russians will have quite an easy job in keeping European nations in line...
I believe, that under strains of PO and economic collapse this policy will prove highly successful.
So Europe will not make it...
I believe, that Union will not be simply dissolved, but tormented by economic problems it will slip into obsolecy.
So biurocrats in Brussels will keep on talking and they will be less and less heard as time pass...
Joined: Mar 26, 2005 Posts: 3671 Location: over here
Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2007 1:19 pm Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
I think Russia will be able to exert increasing influence over Europe but will not be able to play it apart; you haven't suggested how they'd do that. And the same goes for China btw, Russia will exert more and more power over that country as well. In the end though, Europe has far more buying power than China (though that is changing rapidly) and might be able to outbid China in the future.
Also the oil market is an international market; America may boycot Iranian oil, but the Iranians still get the same price per barrel as the Americans are paying for it.
In the end the future is everything except a foregone conclusion (I should make that my new sig line) _________________ "The best thing about the future is that it comes only one day at a time."
Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2007 2:22 pm Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
Bas wrote:
I think Russia will be able to exert increasing influence over Europe but will not be able to play it apart; you haven't suggested how they'd do that.
They are already doing that with Balitc pipe for example.
Quote:
And the same goes for China btw, Russia will exert more and more power over that country as well. In the end though, Europe has far more buying power than China (though that is changing rapidly) and might be able to outbid China in the future.
I dont think that EU stand a good chance of competing with China.
They try it with various tarrifs right now, but in the long run tarrif based aproach is rarely successful.
In longer run Europe is going to be highly dependant of Chineese manufactures, albeit probably less so, than US will be.
Quote:
Also the oil market is an international market; America may boycot Iranian oil, but the Iranians still get the same price per barrel as the Americans are paying for it.
That will surely change as oil depletes.
Bilateral agreements will replace current system. Oil producers will ensure that, very likely with Russia taking a lead in that project.
Quote:
In the end the future is everything except a foregone conclusion (I should make that my new sig line)
So I dont know, how European unity can be preserved.
Brits, Poles, Czechs are current troublemakers on duty, once they take a rest Duch or Danes will show their discontent with something, later French will make some protectionist mess in attempt to save failing welfare there, Greeks and Italians will carry on with deficits regardless...etc...etc...
All that is best described as balkanization - a lot of small dogs pulling the same chunk of meet, each in his direction, and the biggest one, German sheppard helplessly watching all of that and undertaking futile attempts to make order somehow.
Joined: Mar 26, 2005 Posts: 3671 Location: over here
Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2007 3:43 pm Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
basil_hayden wrote:
You'll be serving Russia in its quest to overcome China, India and the Arabs, just like the 'Stans!
I specifically said that I wanted some elaborate opinions from Europeans, not some cheap one liners from American doomers, thank you. _________________ "The best thing about the future is that it comes only one day at a time."
Joined: Mar 26, 2005 Posts: 3671 Location: over here
Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2007 4:25 pm Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
EnergyUnlimited wrote:
So I dont know, how European unity can be preserved.
Brits, Poles, Czechs are current troublemakers on duty, once they take a rest Duch or Danes will show their discontent with something, later French will make some protectionist mess in attempt to save failing welfare there, Greeks and Italians will carry on with deficits regardless...etc...etc...
All that is best described as balkanization - a lot of small dogs pulling the same chunk of meet, each in his direction, and the biggest one, German sheppard helplessly watching all of that and undertaking futile attempts to make order somehow.
Though you don't have it in your location, it's quite easy to derive that you're an American, if you don't mind, I want to know what Europeans have to say now, no offense. _________________ "The best thing about the future is that it comes only one day at a time."
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), what do you think?
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