Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?

Fredrik

I would imagine that when the PO crisis is evident, the "big ones", mainly Germany and France, will try to use the EU to secure their food supplies (I don't know if Germany could feed its 80+ million people with its own agricultural products). All member states will try to protect their own interests the best they can, thus ending up in conflict with other member states. It will be a return to the natural paradigm of cynical, selfish Realpolitik from 20th century internationalist utopias.

I don't think the EU is functionally viable for very long, as the people and government of any given nation will naturally give priority to their own well-being and security, instead of abstract multinational entities.
_________________
"The progress of civilization:
bondage --> spiritual faith --> courage --> liberty --> abundance --> complacency --> apathy --> dependence --> bondage." - Alexander Tyler

shakespear1 · Light Sweet Crude Joined: May 13, 2005 Posts: 1573

OK, here is my 2c worth on this.

From the perspective of an outsider watching over the years what is going on in Poland after joining EU I must say that I am not sold on the idea that it is a GREAT DEAL for the average Kowalski.

Pros:

Can travel in the EU to find work.
Export to EU countries "easier"
Inflow of foreign capital, which can and does just as easily outflow

Cons

Everything cost more and rising
Pay has not grow at the rate of price rises
Skilled worker outflux creating internal problems
University Education is expensive
Widened social/economic gaps
Those over 35 yrs old could be called the losers as often in new jobs will not get a position without connections or EXCELLENT CV

At the moment doctors and nurses are striking. Why? Their pay is on the order of $500 - 800 per month. They are the ones who can not leave. They would BUT, are too old to start a career in a new country, lack language skills, lack money to do it etc.

Thus those with better skills but too old are getting paid much much less than equivalent worker in the EU but seeing or starting to see prices on the level of those in other EU countries. Especially ENERGY, our favorite topic Smile

EU expansion has become a great idea for the old members, but I am not convinced that it is so great for the average citizen of the new members. Most of the benefits are promised to come in the future and as new realities arise those promises will be forgotten I'm afraid. Plenty of examples of this are found everywhere. There has always been a select group who had it good before and today has it even better. The rest however will have to fight for scraps that are left over. To get the most THEY need to leave the country as inside it is a tough fight for very little.

Sometime I pose a simple question to those I meet who want to discuss this issue here,

"How has EU membership improved your everyday life?"

Very quickly it becomes apparent that not much positive has happened in their lives AT HOME. The fact that a new bridge was built or a sidewall repaved in the town, does not result in them finding more money in their wallets or more food on the table. This IMHO could have happened without EU membership but it would have required smart organization, something that is very very lacking in this country.

This is why I THINK Poland at least ( and other late comers to the party), will still be an outsider in the EU for many many years. And when push comes to shove in the future, the big boys in the EU will play in such a way as to marginalize them as much as possible. Hence the big fight about the voting method at the moment.
_________________
Men argue, nature acts !
Voltaire

"...In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation."

Alan Greenspan

mkwin · Intermediate Crude Joined: Jun 01, 2007 Posts: 633

Can't quite understand why you think the UK is the thorn in the side of Europe - the French and Dutch rejected the constitution!! The Poles are hardly Europhiles either.

In terms of our PO capabilities- both the UK and Europe will be in a relatively good position IMO. We get very little electricity from oil; we have good access to gas and are well on our way to building a renewable energy grid. Once we hit peak oil this process could quicken with governmental lead to displace our gas electricity production.

In terms of transport, we generally have a HUGE amount of tax on petrol which could be reduced to help keep us competitive. We are also comfortable with big government intervention - so we won't have anti-governmental militias running around like the poor Americans and our cities and towns are more geared to public transport than the US.

Overall I think peak oil will see a relative rise in the strength and global importance of Europe - possibly overtaking the US who battle to maintain order and replace their oil dependant society with something more sustainable. One benefit to peak oil - the end of American imperialism.

I think people over estimate China in a post-peak world. China strength has been its manufacturing base which will no longer be cost competitive in many instances or will be surplus to demand - I think the rise of China will be stopped in its tracks and reversed by peak oil.

One final point - I'm from the UK and I can summerise the general opinion of the European project here. We don't want to be ruled by faceless autocrats in Brussels, but we are not, generally, opposed to greater unity and cooperation with our European friends. Instead of The Federation of Europe - which the direction the project has been moving towards -The Confederation of European States would be more appropriate. A economic, political and military unity but each elected national government deciding how to implement the system. The bottom line in centralistion of power to Europe no - a de-centralised political unity yes. Oh and the Euro is a stupid idea. A once size fits all monetary policy does not work – look at Spain/Ireland and Italy, completely different monetary needs to Germany and France.

mkwin · Intermediate Crude Joined: Jun 01, 2007 Posts: 633

Licho

Alcassin · Last edited by Alcassin on Sat Jun 23, 2007 7:44 am; edited 1 time in total

USS Poland is troublesome in further integration.

I'm generally for the United Europe as a strategic goal, to become more independent from US (the biggest dependance has UK - their missiles and nukes are integrated with American satellite system, France has its own).

shakespear:
Cost of going to EU was known.
Euro will come, and will bring us more pauperization, than Balcerowicz did to heavy industrial areas. And we know it will come, our Access Treaty obliges us. It's like a waiting for final blow. more than a half of families in Poland spends 80-90% of their budget to buy food. After Euro we will have rising of consumer debts. The unemployment in those areas is high and crime levels have dramtically risen since 1989.

Privatization and liberalization of our market was a crash to many families. The privatization of energy sector (Stoen, GZE) was like a punishment - prices inflated more than 4 time in last 10 years. The price of water is rising. The cost of sustaining life has become very high in the last decade.

The easy McJob is available but you can't event afford and the rent plus energy, water and so on with that. You have to get minimum 500 Euros to live somehow, while 300 Euros/month is an average job.

The system is counterproductive, the beaurocracy level is three times bigger than during real-socialsm (how on Earth this could be possible?), and the get-rich-quickly mentality drives most of young generations... after that they face a reality. They are doomed.

The unemployment has the highest levels in EU, North and East of Poland is a tragedy - catholic fundamentalism plus poverty after destroying national agriculture.

The gap between poor and rich is rising very fast GINI index proves that, we are going the same path as Latin American countries. Capitalism has been imposed, resistance is futile, we will be asimilated. Welfare since has been demolished, and now if you are unemployed after 3 month you're not counted as unemployed - this creative accounting looks good on paper, much worser in reality. GDP is rising, but consumed by max 20% of population. I just hate GDP-growing propaganda from GDP fetishists.

From my hometown almost everyone of my "pub-friends" left Poland, and they are not going to return :/ They don't want to live for 300 Euros per month.

Education overall is in implosion after "reform". We have closed many vocational schools, and now the goal is 85% of kids have to get high school finals. The unemployment will rise or thay are going to have even more McJobs. Let's go Puerto Ri... I mean Poland!
Programs has been cut to minimum thanks to "reform", and I would see minister Handke hanging on near tree. One thing improved - quantity of Catholic religion lessons within a decade.

The workers rights are very often abused, women role in society is still the same (half of them in productive age doesn't work), and nobody cares. System doesn't work and i you think that Poland is developing it means that you have seen few of biggest cities. Poland is growing not developing alike every Latin American country.

Healthcare after many operations has been left in ruin. My mom gets 200 Euro after 25 years of work in hospital. Every reform made the system worse, and after devastating industry what do Poles do?
PRIVATIZE, so she will lose her job or get a lock-out Sad

2 milion people left the country within two years, and our elites are proud of young people that they are so competitve. It's prepostrous to be proud of crashing the ship on the reef and watching how the rats are leaving the board.

I havent being payed even a thin dime in my first job.

I wish I had been born 25 km to south - in Ostrava. Czechs made a good job with their country, and are ahead of Portugal now. But I live here, and thinking more and more about moving after this summer.
_________________
The poor complain; they always do,
But that's just idle chatter.
Our system brings rewards to all,
At least to all who matter.

shakespear1 · Light Sweet Crude Joined: May 13, 2005 Posts: 1573

Alcassin

You overview of the situation here is more expanded and more detailed than mine. I agree with every point. I tend to be more "economical" in my writing which is not always good. That's what you get for being an engineer.

I tend to think of myself as a good observer and what I observe here simply makes me think that EU was a bad deal FOR POLAND. I am not talking about Slovakia, Czech's, Bulgaria etc. I am here and interacting with people at all social levels HERE. Thus I am referring only to Poland.

I'm convinced that the Old EU gains more from the entry of Poland than the other way around.

What you have written could be expanded but this would help little to those who are not in the REALITIES of this country to understand what transpired here. I don't think I would be exaggerating if I said ROBBERY. Businesses that come to mind, WEDEL, URSUS, PZU, POLSAT, BANK SLASKI, BANJ PKO and on and on.

The privatization of highways in some regions is another nice touch of Wild Privatization. While the expansion of credit will ensure that the "naive" will have their pockets completely emptied.

The remark that those older than 35 should

Licho

I hope that EU survives the crises of PO and comes out stronger than before.

Crisis can make it stronger or destroy it, but I don't think that individual countries will do better acting alone than common action of all 27 members.

I'm pro-european, I feel that being european is part of my identity. Many my friends are from different european countries.

I really enjoy benefits of my country's membership of EU.
Every week issue of UK's NewScientist appears in my mailbox (actually sent here from Germany), I bought my car in Germany and my TV and DVD from France (after searching net for lowest price).
Several my PC games and books were purchased from UK and delivered here swiftly.
Bureaucrats here tend to implement every EU directive in much stricter form than requested but I don't really mind stricter ecological limits or higher quality standard for industries. I enjoy the fact that each piece of food I buy is properly labeled and contains lists of chemicals it contains (E numbers) no matter what member country it comes from (I'm alergic to some of this crap and I was never sure what food contains what).

I like the fact that I can go to holidays across different countries with just my standard wallet and few euros in bank account.

Czech republic is now net donor country (sending more money than it recieves) but I still see many projects financed partly by EU funds. Local goverment would never support for example projects of heating using solar energy and heat pumps or support international railroads so heavilly.

I also like the fact that scientists and local industry can participate on fusion energy projects like ITER and HIPER or general research at CERN, ESO and now joining ESA too.
Country this size would never be able to finance such large scale projects or expensive space exploration programmes.

For countries smaller than China, this is the only sensible way forward Smile

Alcassin

EnergyUnlimited · Fusion Joined: May 15, 2006 Posts: 3394

shakespear1 · Light Sweet Crude Joined: May 13, 2005 Posts: 1573

Alcassin

I'm not an expert in economics and how to transform an economy. However I thought there were smart people in Poland who would look around the world and understand how to avoid to be taken advantage of. This is idealism on my part vs. reality of the way the world works. The experts were there and still are but were NOT in positions to make the final decisions in the countries transformation.

I had the pleasure to watch in '92 how the "savvy" deal makers arrived in Russia and started to bleed, I mean transform that country with the help of Russian's. It was easy to see and was even reported on in the beginning. Likewise now I have a glimpse and an understanding of how it has and is being done in Poland.

The famous Plan Balcerowicza was a plan handed to him from the US experts on transformations. This plan had its roots in IMF and experts of the World Bank. Institutions with excellent record of raising Africa/South America out of poverty Smile

What could have been the right direction for Poland to take? Here I have my favorite, Denmark. I know this is not a realistic choice as the system one accepts is strongly tied to the character of the nation. And Poles are not Danes. However the Danish model has some characteristics of the what the Poles had before, socialism.

To take this direction would have required a greater cohesion of the elites in Poland which unfortunately is none existent in Polish history and non existen today. Hence the confusion of being in Europe or in an orbit of the USA. This does not bode well for Poland's EU membership because they must be seen as outsiders and trouble makers. Time will tell.

History does show that Poland knows how to pull together but this happens unfortunately only when it is in midst of a war Sad

During peace it does not know how to organize the house so as to be a winner. That is what happens when you are in the middle of the road most frequently crossed by currents of European history. History shows this clearly and can not easily be ignored.
_________________
Men argue, nature acts !
Voltaire

"...In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation."

Alan Greenspan

Bas

Alcassin

EnergyUnlimited · Fusion Joined: May 15, 2006 Posts: 3394